Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?
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- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
And now they're all down.
The markets are reasonably volatile right now, so it's hard to say if any day will be red or green. I'm somehow green today with something like ten basis points, but it's been fluctuating.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
I don't think anyone is seriously expecting China to do anything. They are just making the usual song and dance, but at the end of the day they are not ready to go against the US. All those fancy new aircraft carriers are still in the middle of sea trials. They've not had a chance to find all the design mistakes and fake insulation due to corruption yet.
Nothing has significantly changed with the Chinese Navy since the Japanese pushed their shit in due to half their naval artillery shells being packed with sawdust instead of gunpowder. Fighting the US Navy right now would be a certain repeat of the Battle of the Yalu River.
Nothing has significantly changed with the Chinese Navy since the Japanese pushed their shit in due to half their naval artillery shells being packed with sawdust instead of gunpowder. Fighting the US Navy right now would be a certain repeat of the Battle of the Yalu River.
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
There's one way this starts a shooting war.
Xi's major competitor (Li Keqiang) manages to split the navy off from the military and get them to start a shooting war.
Navy-Army interforce rivalry is strong, since both blame the other for being unable to take Taiwan.
Navy hates Army, Army hates airforce, Airforce hates the stragetic rocket troops.
One word: TSMC
Mainly because the whole "supply chain" for modern semis is not complete in either China or USA. First one to finish gets to fuck the other one over.
China is working on building ULV machines while the US is trying to move etching out of Taiwan and materials engineering for wafers before etch out of Japan.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
Didn't what's his face visit Taiwan under Trump and call it China like a tard?
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2019
Senator Duckworth was there this year. You may say that since it's a Speaker of the House, this is the most high profile visit since Newt Gingrich in 1997, but I don't believe it. China has calculated that they can get us to cuck or they were going to invade anyways. If we make a visit and also drastically increase presence in the region, we're calling the Chinese bluff and forcing them to choose between saving face or saving their skin.
Tellingly, Putin was also in the news yesterday talking about his concerns re: nuclear war. If we run into any potential great powers conflict, we'll probably have to include Russia, as New START prevents us from fully arming 14 warheads on our submarine launched MIRV Trident II missiles.
...bullish gold, oil, and the military-industrial complex
bearish china, real estate, and tech
Edit: It's possible we're provoking China now ahead of the 20th National Party Congress where Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected as Chairman.
Edit 2: She landed, nothing happened, markets euphoric
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- Joined
- Feb 18, 2019
Always remember that most news articles are 1 % information and 99 % entertainment. You can have days where a market/index/whatsover goes down 1/10th of a standard deviation. Something completely random and to be expected.
And then some media outlet is weaving a story out of it and fishing for "reasons".
The term investment porn exists for a reason.
And then some media outlet is weaving a story out of it and fishing for "reasons".
The term investment porn exists for a reason.
- Joined
- Sep 21, 2019
Fuck maybe I have a porn addiction. I never heard this term before
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
I was thinking of Pompeo, because from what I remember Trump was selling weapons to Taiwan, that's one of those weird things that was memory holed as Trump was generally accused of being too racist against China but now it seems like the left jumped on that bandwagon?
I'm also never bearish real estate, there are sections of real estate you should be bearish on, but as a whole there will usually be plenty of areas in that sector that are up despite the rest being down. As a sector it's just too broad to classify as one thing.
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
Needs justification for the 7th fleet funding.
It's because the Chinese NPC (National Party Congress) which "elects" the new leader is this year. Also because it's just a big "I fucking dare you" to show that the US semi-conductor supply chain can't get fucked without slinging nukes.
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2019
Nice. Recession time.
- Joined
- Feb 1, 2022
Anyone here following the situation with AMTD? It's the most brazen pump and dump I've ever seen.
Two weeks ago on July 15th, AMTD had an IPO with stock ticker HKD. AMTD is a small digital finance company based in Hong Kong with a reported revenue of about $23 million a year and 51 employees. Despite that, on no real news, the ticker skyrocketed from around $12 at its IPO opening to an ATH of $2,555 per share. That's an increase of roughly 21,192%. To put this kind of insane growth in context, at its height, AMTD had a market cap of roughly 1.15 trillion dollars, making it the 25th most valuable company in the world. More valuable than Coca-Cola and Bank of America.
Now if you looked at those growth percentages and thought, 'Damn, kinda sounds like the Gamestop situation from last year', you weren't alone. The media began trumpeting that AMTD was 'the next Gamestop craze', and credited the rise of the stock price to retail FOMO on Wallstreetbets. This is bullshit, of course, since there's no way retail could FOMO in over a trillion dollars into a stock in the span of two fucking weeks, but the fact that the media was reporting on it made it clear that the party would soon be over and that the stock was due for a crash.
Sure enough, after reaching its ATH yesterday, the stock started crashing down. As I'm writing this, the stock price is at roughly $1,300 per share, which is almost a 50% drop from the ATH and a 22% drop on the day.
The daily chart tells you the whole story, really. Massive sell drops triggering trading halts that flatline the chart, followed by even harsher sell-offs. You know your stock's having an eventful day when the chartline looks like something out of Minecraft.
It's pretty obvious this entire thing was a gigantic pump-and-dump, though who set it up and why is anyone's guess right now. I can't imagine that there was a lot of retail FOMO behind this, but I bet any sucker who did buy into this is either frantically dialing their broker or a suicide hotline right about now.
EDIT: I just stumbled across this article which said that the majority of HKD stock purchases being made were from their class B stock, which isn't publicly tradeable. Pump and dump confirmed.
Two weeks ago on July 15th, AMTD had an IPO with stock ticker HKD. AMTD is a small digital finance company based in Hong Kong with a reported revenue of about $23 million a year and 51 employees. Despite that, on no real news, the ticker skyrocketed from around $12 at its IPO opening to an ATH of $2,555 per share. That's an increase of roughly 21,192%. To put this kind of insane growth in context, at its height, AMTD had a market cap of roughly 1.15 trillion dollars, making it the 25th most valuable company in the world. More valuable than Coca-Cola and Bank of America.
Now if you looked at those growth percentages and thought, 'Damn, kinda sounds like the Gamestop situation from last year', you weren't alone. The media began trumpeting that AMTD was 'the next Gamestop craze', and credited the rise of the stock price to retail FOMO on Wallstreetbets. This is bullshit, of course, since there's no way retail could FOMO in over a trillion dollars into a stock in the span of two fucking weeks, but the fact that the media was reporting on it made it clear that the party would soon be over and that the stock was due for a crash.
Sure enough, after reaching its ATH yesterday, the stock started crashing down. As I'm writing this, the stock price is at roughly $1,300 per share, which is almost a 50% drop from the ATH and a 22% drop on the day.
The daily chart tells you the whole story, really. Massive sell drops triggering trading halts that flatline the chart, followed by even harsher sell-offs. You know your stock's having an eventful day when the chartline looks like something out of Minecraft.
It's pretty obvious this entire thing was a gigantic pump-and-dump, though who set it up and why is anyone's guess right now. I can't imagine that there was a lot of retail FOMO behind this, but I bet any sucker who did buy into this is either frantically dialing their broker or a suicide hotline right about now.
EDIT: I just stumbled across this article which said that the majority of HKD stock purchases being made were from their class B stock, which isn't publicly tradeable. Pump and dump confirmed.
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- Joined
- May 5, 2022
Probably pretty, my bet is the tax hike is gonna get passed onto the consumer. I expect even more blatant "cost rising due to economic factors, get bent" attitudes now dealing with suppliers and larger companies.
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2016
So I ve been on a kick listening to this guy and even read his book "the end of the world is just the beginning"
He has a couple of other talks about things but the short of the long is this.
The current global situation since the end of world war 2 is not normal.
Globalism, just in time, the dollar as the world reserve currency, were all tools for the cold war.
In Europe its century of wars with their neighbors created a situation where things were not reliable, trading with the country next door is risky. But get on a ship find a colony somewhere and boom you have a captive market for raw materials and to sell finished goods.
America at the end of world war II was had a option to create an empire, instead we didnt for a couple of reasons. America having very very good geography and spanning a whole continent, why take lands in europe when we can just develop the lands we have at home, also we didnt have the man power to secure such an empire and in truth americans wouldnt have the skills to govern such places anyway.
So instead we bribed countries with the global system, they dont need to worry about pirates they dont need colonies anymore, america will provide security, and access to markets and financing. All america wanted was the ability to handle the cold war their way.
In the above video he explains how russia and ukraine are number 1 and number 4 grain exporters, there are alot of countries that are net food importers and losing those exports are going to cause problems but it gets worse.
Russia is a main supplier potash and other components for fertilizer. He has a good example showing how crazy the global system is ocean shipping is so cheap brazil can import russian fertilizer grow soy beans, and then ship the soy beans to china as hog feed.
China has more hogs then the rest of the world combined. They also have african swine flu.
There s alot of other stuff he talks about but america is in a weird position in that if we brought back fracking we could get off forgien oil for energy we can grow our own food we dont have nearly the exposure alot of other places have.
The thing that spoke to me was how he explained that in the 1990s the soviet union fell and an empires worth of raw materials came on the global market oil, metals, lumber, and then in the 1990s china came on to the scene and you had a billion+ work force ready to make stuff for cheap. Those werent normal situations etc.
I ve also studied the toyota production system, and their just in time process and I think alot of places will move away from just in time to Just in case.
All these changes means capital will cost more so I expect some crazy stagflation
He has a couple of other talks about things but the short of the long is this.
The current global situation since the end of world war 2 is not normal.
Globalism, just in time, the dollar as the world reserve currency, were all tools for the cold war.
In Europe its century of wars with their neighbors created a situation where things were not reliable, trading with the country next door is risky. But get on a ship find a colony somewhere and boom you have a captive market for raw materials and to sell finished goods.
America at the end of world war II was had a option to create an empire, instead we didnt for a couple of reasons. America having very very good geography and spanning a whole continent, why take lands in europe when we can just develop the lands we have at home, also we didnt have the man power to secure such an empire and in truth americans wouldnt have the skills to govern such places anyway.
So instead we bribed countries with the global system, they dont need to worry about pirates they dont need colonies anymore, america will provide security, and access to markets and financing. All america wanted was the ability to handle the cold war their way.
In the above video he explains how russia and ukraine are number 1 and number 4 grain exporters, there are alot of countries that are net food importers and losing those exports are going to cause problems but it gets worse.
Russia is a main supplier potash and other components for fertilizer. He has a good example showing how crazy the global system is ocean shipping is so cheap brazil can import russian fertilizer grow soy beans, and then ship the soy beans to china as hog feed.
China has more hogs then the rest of the world combined. They also have african swine flu.
There s alot of other stuff he talks about but america is in a weird position in that if we brought back fracking we could get off forgien oil for energy we can grow our own food we dont have nearly the exposure alot of other places have.
The thing that spoke to me was how he explained that in the 1990s the soviet union fell and an empires worth of raw materials came on the global market oil, metals, lumber, and then in the 1990s china came on to the scene and you had a billion+ work force ready to make stuff for cheap. Those werent normal situations etc.
I ve also studied the toyota production system, and their just in time process and I think alot of places will move away from just in time to Just in case.
All these changes means capital will cost more so I expect some crazy stagflation
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
Probably very little unless you own a corporation or make in the mid to upper six figures
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
There's no such thing as a major corpo or high earner being hurt by taxes unless they're retarded. Let's put it this way, all income taxation started as targeting the wealthy with the upper bracket capping out at 7-8%, but today the lowest rate is 10%. Taxation of the rich is a stupid way to pass tax law that will hurt the poor, and the IRS has openly admitted they target lower income folks as they can't fight shit, and if you think them trying to monitor accounts with 200-600$ or whatever is targeting the rich, then you're delusional.
That's why corpos want to be international, not because they give a shit about Paki politics, but because if retards in one country gain a foothold and pass heavy taxation they can shutter and continue operations in real countries. If you want that on a smaller scale, buy crypto, because maybe the fiat of a country you're in goes retarded tomorrow, at least you still have something left even if it's less than you did before. People with money can buy crypto and just let it sit, those living day to day can't, so once again fiat risk hurts the poor and not those with means, even on such a small scale outlook.
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
Or, ya know, they could close the loopholes that the rich and corporations use instead of just borrowing more money and taxing the poor people more