Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

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Save the Loli said:
Everytime I look at the housing market in my area and the usual "out of state investor" faggotry that spikes the price of land/houses, I'm just glad real estate will be crashing very, very soon so I won't need to buy overvalued bullshit an hour away from where my job is. Hopefully those loathsome "land investors" lose a lot of money too along with everyone lending them money.
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To be honest I hope so too.
 
Save the Loli said:
Everytime I look at the housing market in my area and the usual "out of state investor" faggotry that spikes the price of land/houses, I'm just glad real estate will be crashing very, very soon so I won't need to buy overvalued bullshit an hour away from where my job is. Hopefully those loathsome "land investors" lose a lot of money too along with everyone lending them money.
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As much as I'd also like to see these various parasites hemorrhage cash while allowing normal people to more easily purchase homes, it looks like investment funds are preparing to take advantage of any significant drops, even if it means losses in the next few years.


It's not just Blackstone; many funds apparently have the same idea and are raising as much money as they can and my guess is all their purchases will prop up or even increase the prices on property. I wouldn't be surprised if a total of at least $150 billion has been raised so far.
 
TheRedChair said:
I'm going to agree with the Balkan states. As far as Russia and China Advancing?? DEAD WRONG IMHO. They are actually going backwards as all failed Totalitarian states do.

But I also agree with about your comment with the EU in General as for many years the ASSHATS in Germany and in Belgium have been calling the shots which lead to mostly nothing and leading to the situation they are in.
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Don't get me wrong, I think the governments of China and Russia are authoritarian and are faltering as a result because they're losing some control over their people and as such need to clamp down hard. Though I will say they're far more open to experimentation and innovation than the pseudo authoritarian governments of the EU and where the USA is headed.

If China can reform and go back to a pre-Xi state where they saw most of their explosive growth they'd be in a very good spot. Russia is in trouble no matter what as they have so much decay and really need some industries to spawn over there, who knows maybe as a result of the war they'll shake things up enough to see some actual progress instead of just stagnation like the rest of the world. I doubt it though.

TheRedChair said:
You remember I commented about doing your homework? Gathering as much data as possible and making a logical investment with your hard earn money in order to get ahead???

Well this is an example of information which could be useful for many types of people who track this sort of information.
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I agree with your post as a whole but I do think people over complicate things. Really if they spent less time trying to draw doodles on charts or figuring out autistic ways to beat quants that are far more autistic they'd be better off. You can make a lot of money just asking yourself why something is down when that something is reporting good news, and what is happening in the world. The other thing you need to consider is why you're in that investment and what conditions would make you sell.

The market is efficient in a lot of ways, but not as efficient as people make it out to be. Like you I figured oil/energy would be up, and I didn't have much exposure to the sector because it had been down for so long. Figured I'd initiate positions in it and if it doesn't go up then at least I have exposure to it now and more diversification and if it does go up as predicted I'm ahead even more. I'm up 30% at this point on the XLE shares I've purchased, and I went with an ETF as I didn't know the sector well.

Hell, I remember buying TGT and QCOM for 50$ a share a few years ago, just because they had bad news cycles but everything seemed very temporary compared to their prospects. Another one was EPR when everything crashed during Covid, when something goes from 80$ to 10$ or less in a month over global news that hit the whole market, either it will go back up or we're all fucked and none of it matters anyway. And sure, I don't win all of my picks, but I can continue to hold or add if I think they thesis is still there and nothing fundamentally has changed, or I can sell and redeploy funds if I think it was a wrong choice. The nice thing is I'm not worried about the money that much so I'm not freaking out if things go bad for a little while.


It Burns said:
It's not just Blackstone; many funds apparently have the same idea and are raising as much money as they can and my guess is all their purchases will prop up or even increase the prices on property. I wouldn't be surprised if a total of at least $150 billion has been raised so far.
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One other thing to consider is if inflation bumps up income as a whole it will help rental properties a lot as well, that and the potential expansion of Section 8 style programs in the event of a serious economic issue also makes rental properties more successful at the expense of anyone looking to buy or pay their own rent.
 
Retink said:
One other thing to consider is if inflation bumps up income as a whole it will help rental properties a lot as well, that and the potential expansion of Section 8 style programs in the event of a serious economic issue also makes rental properties more successful at the expense of anyone looking to buy or pay their own rent.
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Except Section 8 is a mess where Fair Market Rent doesn't track closely with the market.

I have one property fully paid off that's Section 8 just so I could see the process and, wow. The inspections aren't really that bad (I'm not a slumlord) but FMR for the area is so low I couldn't pay the mortgage with it if I were to buy the home today, much less property tax, homeowners insurance and maintenance.
 
eternal dog mongler said:
Except Section 8 is a mess where Fair Market Rent doesn't track closely with the market.

I have one property fully paid off that's Section 8 just so I could see the process and, wow. The inspections aren't really that bad (I'm not a slumlord) but FMR for the area is so low I couldn't pay the mortgage with it if I were to buy the home today, much less property tax, homeowners insurance and maintenance.
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Section 8 keeps market values for rent high which encourages higher home prices. Every landlord will at one point have someone offer them more than they're asking in rent because Section 8 will cover it, and many of the homes in cities that rent for more than what you'd think an average employee can make are Section 8 occupied because baby momma with her six chillen is covered by these programs. It's great if you're a landlord because you basically have assured income from the state, but it's terrible for renters and prospective buyers as they're essentially paying taxes to price themselves out of the market.

Anything the government touches will fuck out the working and middle class and benefit the leeches and rich, it's how you essentially end up with caste systems.
 
Retink said:
Section 8 keeps market values for rent high which encourages higher home prices. Every landlord will at one point have someone offer them more than they're asking in rent because Section 8 will cover it, and many of the homes in cities that rent for more than what you'd think an average employee can make are Section 8 occupied because baby momma with her six chillen is covered by these programs. It's great if you're a landlord because you basically have assured income from the state, but it's terrible for renters and prospective buyers as they're essentially paying taxes to price themselves out of the market.
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Can I please ask what fantasy world you live in?

FMR for my Section 8 property is $1.3k. One that's not Section 8 in the same zip code I rent out for $2.1k. Values are nearly the same (they're both at low 400s thanks to housing prices going insane here.)
 
eternal dog mongler said:
Can I please ask what fantasy world you live in?

FMR for my Section 8 property is $1.3k. One that's not Section 8 in the same zip code I rent out for $2.1k. Values are nearly the same (they're both at low 400s thanks to housing prices going insane here.)
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Maybe it's your area but the last place I got was a duplex in the 400's (before the Covid spike) and when renting out the units I had a lot of Section 8 interest with a couple offering to pay more for priority as their Section 8 will cover it. This is an area that's not particularly expensive and I was asking for what's fair in the area, but it's within half an hour of more expensive areas which may influence things. Though the area I'm in if you're a single person with an ok job you'll have a hell of a time renting a unit and saving money alone, which I can't imagine is sustainable. You'd think there would be more reasonably priced units on complexes but that seems to be getting rare and 30 minutes out you'll see studios for 1k$+ .

As for the more expensive areas speaking with some people out there who own properties where units rent for over 3k$ USD they get a lot of interest from single black mothers on Section 8 as their coverage can go as high as 3.5k$ in some cases.
 
eternal dog mongler said:
Can I please ask what fantasy world you live in?

FMR for my Section 8 property is $1.3k. One that's not Section 8 in the same zip code I rent out for $2.1k. Values are nearly the same (they're both at low 400s thanks to housing prices going insane here.)
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>section 8 for $2k
:story:
 
It Burns said:
As much as I'd also like to see these various parasites hemorrhage cash while allowing normal people to more easily purchase homes, it looks like investment funds are preparing to take advantage of any significant drops, even if it means losses in the next few years.


It's not just Blackstone; many funds apparently have the same idea and are raising as much money as they can and my guess is all their purchases will prop up or even increase the prices on property. I wouldn't be surprised if a total of at least $150 billion has been raised so far.
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What these retards don't realize is they're going to end up keeping zombie homebuilders running long into the collapse, since hey, there's corporate buyers; at the same time, homeowner protections are going to keep zombie tenants with mortgage delinquencies in their homes for years.

My prediction is 2025 for the perfect storm of evictions, boomer death, and corporations dumping housing. I hate renting, but I'm gonna keep doing it for now because all my money instincts are screaming at me to be able to walk away from whatever I might be in.
 
Kiwis, keep an eye on the fine art market. I have reason to believe it might be the next big rug pull on easily duped "investors". I'm seeing youtube sponsorships for a service called masterworks that professes to be an investment platform that allows users to buy shares in fine art. From what I know, fine art has always been a rich man's game and always had ties to tax evasion and sanctions dodging.

I'm usually late on these things, so I assume if I'm starting to hear about it that there's already a bunch of people who have dumped a ton of money into art hoping to make a fortune on it. Per usual, I expect the brokers and middle men to walk away with any profits.

 
Audit said:
Kiwis, keep an eye on the fine art market. I have reason to believe it might be the next big rug pull on easily duped "investors". I'm seeing youtube sponsorships for a service called masterworks that professes to be an investment platform that allows users to buy shares in fine art. From what I know, fine art has always been a rich man's game and always had ties to tax evasion and sanctions dodging.

I'm usually late on these things, so I assume if I'm starting to hear about it that there's already a bunch of people who have dumped a ton of money into art hoping to make a fortune on it. Per usual, I expect the brokers and middle men to walk away with any profits.

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I've seen the Masterworks shilled a lot recently and the pitch sounds incredibly scummy.

Amusingly enough they tried a similar thing with Magic cards of all things a while back where you could own pieces of things like a "Black Lotus" and that went bust really quick. I think it was called Mythic Shares or something, and it was laughed out of the building pretty quickly, but here comes this art bullshit which has all of the same problems, such as what happens when a piece is up for sale that own shares in, you could in theory be liquidated out of your position by others at a loss with little to no say.

Really if you want to speculate in something just buy that something, and while art might not be affordable to you, many collectables are.

Edit: Also to confirm, they can just sell it at a loss and fuck you

We hold the artwork 3-10 years
Wait until we sell the painting to receive your pro rata proceeds, after our fees.
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Sell shares on the secondary market*
You have the option to seek to sell your shares on our secondary market.
* We cannot assure you that the Secondary Market will provide enough liquidity, a reliable or effective means of monetizing your investment or valuing your shares.
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Edit 2: Oh holy shit the fees, these are Mutual Fund fees on what's a shitty index fund
1.5%
Fee per year
Our annual management fee is paid in the form of equity.
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And they grab healthy fee from the potential profit:
20%
Future profits
We’re aligned with investor interests to sell the painting for the highest attainable price.
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Looks like Globohomo Social Credit ESG score claims a new high profile victim by means of cancelation. HSBC from my experience had one of the shittiest web platforms ever, but that's because they're British.


Stuart Kirk's speech (Dude is based for a Britbong):
 
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Fertilizer is supposed to go up another 200%, container pots (the plastic ones) another 75%.
6-8 mo backorder on farm equipment and water pump parts.
Nursery industry looking at another 15% raise end of September, 5% raise starting August already.

I am not religious but I'm not sure how outside of a prayer being answered we aren't headed for major famine.
 
兄貴 Forevermore said:
Fertilizer is supposed to go up another 200%, container pots (the plastic ones) another 75%.
6-8 mo backorder on farm equipment and water pump parts.
Nursery industry looking at another 15% raise end of September, 5% raise starting August already.

I am not religious but I'm not sure how outside of a prayer being answered we aren't headed for major famine.
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Looks like taters are back on the menu, boys.
 
US equity markets are accelerating their losses suddenly this morning (after briefly touching unchanged from overnight weakness) following headlines that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is reportedly expected to land in Taiwan on Tuesday night.

Liberty Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter, Pelosi plans to visit the Legislative Yuan and meet lawmakers on Wednesday.
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