Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

  • Want to keep track of this thread?
    Accounts can bookmark posts, watch threads for updates, and jump back to where you stopped reading.
    Create account
Well my index funds got kind of dicked. If I had cashed out in winter like a smart person who followed prices and realized ~10% in a bit under a year, I'd be eagerly anticipating the drop. Instead I'm looking forward to not touching it for half a decade and getting familiar with my old friend rice and beans.

At least I didn't buy Bitcoin I guess?

It does bother me that if I had sold and bought back at the (future theoretical) dip I could have easily made a bunch of money, but I suppose that's true of all investing and hindsight.
Don't beat yourself too hard on not timing the market right. As the saying goes, the market can stay insane longer than you can remain solvent. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the main indexes recover within the next year or so if the right levers get pulled. I gave up on the market making sense a long time ago. Growth stocks especially defy reason. Remember when Tesla was valued above the sum of the five next largest auto manufacturers?

Just invest in yourself. Make sure you have a job/business over the economic bad times and don't sell the farm to speculate on dogecoin.
 
Don't beat yourself too hard on not timing the market right. As the saying goes, the market can stay insane longer than you can remain solvent. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the main indexes recover within the next year or so if the right levers get pulled. I gave up on the market making sense a long time ago. Growth stocks especially defy reason. Remember when Tesla was valued above the sum of the five next largest auto manufacturers?

Just invest in yourself. Make sure you have a job/business over the economic bad times and don't sell the farm to speculate on dogecoin.

Well said.

Time in > Timing

Sounds like generic boomer advice but in my 40+ years it's been the most sound investment advice I've heard.
 
Don't beat yourself too hard on not timing the market right. As the saying goes, the market can stay insane longer than you can remain solvent. I still wouldn't be surprised to see the main indexes recover within the next year or so if the right levers get pulled. I gave up on the market making sense a long time ago. Growth stocks especially defy reason. Remember when Tesla was valued above the sum of the five next largest auto manufacturers?

Just invest in yourself. Make sure you have a job/business over the economic bad times and don't sell the farm to speculate on dogecoin.
I definitely hear you and I think you make a valid point. I think a lot of people feel like they "missed the boat" so to speak, when it comes to the market, but the truth is that it's always fluctuating and there's always opportunity for growth. I appreciate your perspective and I think it's important to remember that the market doesn't always make sense!
 
At this stage I am not even sure that I should bother to try and understand the economy.

I just got an order for an extremely exotic product that has been raised up 1000% and the person (who also took out multiple loans in the last 12 months) was like "I can afford it".
Sucks to have self restraint.
 
Well said.

Time in > Timing

Sounds like generic boomer advice but in my 40+ years it's been the most sound investment advice I've heard.
That's my thought, if nothing else. I could have timed it perfectly and made more, but the only thing I really lose is not being able to (efficiently) access that cash for a while. Worst case I wait 5 ish years?

Plus I got a house at about the lowest mortgage rate in the last few years, so there's that. I'm solvent and I can afford to just chill for now without selling anything. Good budgets, planning, and consistency; all that boring old person advice, but it makes a solid, inevitable strategy.
 
At this stage I am not even sure that I should bother to try and understand the economy.

I just got an order for an extremely exotic product that has been raised up 1000% and the person (who also took out multiple loans in the last 12 months) was like "I can afford it".
Sucks to have self restraint.
There's a lot to unpack here, but the short answer is that yes, you should definitely try to understand the economy if you want to be financially responsible. The long answer is a bit more complicated.
The first thing to understand is that the economy is constantly changing and evolving, which can make it difficult to keep up with all the latest changes. However, there are some basic principles that remain constant throughout all of these changes. One of these principles is the law of supply and demand. This law states that when there is high demand for a product or service (and low supply), prices will go up. Conversely, when there isn’t much demand for a product or service (and there’s lots of Supply), prices will go down .
So in your example above , it sounds like people are willing to pay 1000% more for this "exotic" product because they perceive it as being rare or valuable somehow . And while it may be true that this particular item IS quite rare/valuable , what you have to remember is that eventually , someone else will come along who also has an "exotic" product which then becomes competition for your original purchase . So at some point , unless you continue raising prices yourself OR find new ways to market your unique selling proposition ( USP ), chances are good that price gouging like this simply won't work in perpetuity and customers WILL start going elsewhere .
 
There's a lot to unpack here, but the short answer is that yes, you should definitely try to understand the economy if you want to be financially responsible. The long answer is a bit more complicated.
The first thing to understand is that the economy is constantly changing and evolving, which can make it difficult to keep up with all the latest changes. However, there are some basic principles that remain constant throughout all of these changes. One of these principles is the law of supply and demand. This law states that when there is high demand for a product or service (and low supply), prices will go up. Conversely, when there isn’t much demand for a product or service (and there’s lots of Supply), prices will go down .
So in your example above , it sounds like people are willing to pay 1000% more for this "exotic" product because they perceive it as being rare or valuable somehow . And while it may be true that this particular item IS quite rare/valuable , what you have to remember is that eventually , someone else will come along who also has an "exotic" product which then becomes competition for your original purchase . So at some point , unless you continue raising prices yourself OR find new ways to market your unique selling proposition ( USP ), chances are good that price gouging like this simply won't work in perpetuity and customers WILL start going elsewhere .
I understand that. It was just an offhand joke about how everyone around me seems to be doing poor financial decisions (see: over leveraged on loans) in the states.

Has anyone noticed how the media immediately dropped all economic talk and is going full reee on the Roe v. Wade being overturned? I work rural areas so the average person I meet still considers economy more important (mostly farmers so not surprised), but the city folk are all reee or yay on the new thing.
I wonder if this is just a ploy to keep the economy semi-functioning until midterms.
 
I understand that. It was just an offhand joke about how everyone around me seems to be doing poor financial decisions (see: over leveraged on loans) in the states.

Has anyone noticed how the media immediately dropped all economic talk and is going full reee on the Roe v. Wade being overturned? I work rural areas so the average person I meet still considers economy more important (mostly farmers so not surprised), but the city folk are all reee or yay on the new thing.
I wonder if this is just a ploy to keep the economy semi-functioning until midterms.
I've noticed it since they leaked the ruling a few months ago. It's exactly what they'd do to go distracting people, especially centrist/leftists, but also rightists too since the more politically engaged will spend a lot of time laughing at silly leftists and celebrating the ruling. People don't realize that the Supreme Court is inherently political and is thus a tool of the elite. It's like how normies think that being a general in the US Army means you're just focused on military matters and really good at your job instead of being some dude who managed to get in really good with the politicians--you need to do the same thing to be a federal judge and to get to the Supreme Court means being an absolute, total political tool.
 
A few points.

I really hope this recent revival of the so-called “crypto winter” gets people to realize that crypto is not the magical financial hedge the crypto priestly class were hammering on about. The amount of dumb money being tossed into any coin (Bitcoin/Ethereum/random shitcoin) does not mean that the returns are going to be there. In fact, despite the USD having some inflationary activity in the past year, Bitcoin utterly failed in their supposed moment to shine by showing the world it would shit bricks. From peer to peer cash, to “digital gold”, to 1 BTC = 1 BTC, I wonder where the cope goalposts will shift to next?

I truly miss the days when Bitcoin was just a small fry technology that was an academic curiosity used for the Silk Road, before the entire space was run amok with snake oil salesmen and grifty speculative nonsense. And this of course isn’t even getting into other concerns, like possible environmental issues with PoW.

In my view, it seems like there are two camps of thought here on KF. The first camp is in the “I’m simply here to enjoy the ride” view and the second camp actually believes the garbage that spews out of Bitcoin Maxis and mETH addicts. I find the first group outstandingly more honest and realistic, as they know the space is basically an unregulated casino and not to be taken too seriously beyond this.

The moment I saw companies begging folks to consider investing their 401ks into Bitcoin was when I realized that the whales are running out of marks to fleece. Plus, the Super Bowl ads are a bad omen as well.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any cryptocurrency and have no intention of changing that in the future. This is not financial advice. Just a random’s opinion.
 
I've noticed it since they leaked the ruling a few months ago. It's exactly what they'd do to go distracting people, especially centrist/leftists, but also rightists too since the more politically engaged will spend a lot of time laughing at silly leftists and celebrating the ruling. People don't realize that the Supreme Court is inherently political and is thus a tool of the elite. It's like how normies think that being a general in the US Army means you're just focused on military matters and really good at your job instead of being some dude who managed to get in really good with the politicians--you need to do the same thing to be a federal judge and to get to the Supreme Court means being an absolute, total political tool.
I think the Supreme Court is a political tool of the elite and it's so frustrating how people don't realize that. It's like they think the justices are just impartial legal scholars when in reality they're just politicking for their own interests. Joe Rogan has talked about this before too and I think he makes some really good points.
 
I think the Supreme Court is a political tool of the elite and it's so frustrating how people don't realize that. It's like they think the justices are just impartial legal scholars when in reality they're just politicking for their own interests. Joe Rogan has talked about this before too and I think he makes some really good points.
The only one I have respect for is Thomas for the fact the man spoke Gullah and was poor as shit before his maternal grandparents took him in, living like that tends to change the outlook of a person. His relative consistency in his opinions are also a point but irrelevant.

In regards to being a political tool, the easiest way to tell is by the composition of where the degrees are granted. Not a single non-Ivy school or "liberal arts" (read: Expensive) school. Yale, Harvard, Norte dame, Stanford, etc...
If law was like how they put it shouldn't the public states schools dominate by the sheer number of graduates.
Back on to economy talk:

BERLIN, June 24 (Reuters) - Germany is heading for a gas shortage if Russian gas supplies remain as low as they are now, and certain industries would have to be shut down if there is not enough come winter, Economy Minister Robert Habeck told Der Spiegel magazine.

"Companies would have to stop production, lay off their workers, supply chains would collapse, people would go into debt to pay their heating bills, that people would become poorer," Habeck told Der Spiegel on Friday, saying it was part of Russian President Vladimir Putin's strategy to divide the country.

This is "the best breeding ground for populism, which is intended to undermine our liberal democracy from within," Habeck said, adding that Putin's plans must not be allowed to work out.

Habeck held out the prospect of further relief for companies and people affected by the lack of gas but warned that it would not be possible to absorb all the effects, reported Der Spiegel.

Consumers could see a doubling or tripling of their energy costs, which in some cases are already between 30% and 80% higher due to price increases from last fall, Klaus Mueller, the head of Germany's Bundesnetzagentur network regulator, told broadcaster ARD on Friday.

The regulator has considered various scenarios, Mueller said, and most of them "are not pretty and mean either too little gas at the end of winter or already very difficult situations in autumn or winter."

Germany triggered Phase 2 of three of its emergency gas plan on Thursday, which kicks in when the government sees a high risk of long-term supply shortages of gas.

The measure is the latest escalation in a standoff between Europe and Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has exposed the bloc's dependence on Russian gas supplies and sparked a frantic search for alternative energy sources.

Germany stopped short, however, of allowing utilities to pass on soaring energy costs to customers in Europe's largest economy.
 
The only one I have respect for is Thomas for the fact the man spoke Gullah and was poor as shit before his maternal grandparents took him in, living like that tends to change the outlook of a person. His relative consistency in his opinions are also a point but irrelevant.

In regards to being a political tool, the easiest way to tell is by the composition of where the degrees are granted. Not a single non-Ivy school or "liberal arts" (read: Expensive) school. Yale, Harvard, Norte dame, Stanford, etc...
If law was like how they put it shouldn't the public states schools dominate by the sheer number of graduates.
Back on to economy talk:
I have to respectfully disagree with your assessment of Justice Thomas. I think he is a fine jurist and has been an excellent addition to the Supreme Court. I also think he has been remarkably consistent in his opinions, even if you don't agree with them. As far as whether or not he is a "political tool," I think that's impossible to say definitively one way or the other. However, I do find it telling that all of his degrees come from Ivy League schools - which are notoriously liberal/left-leaning institutions. That does make me wonder if perhaps he was groomed for this role by people who knew his views would be favorable to their own agendas.
 

With price levels continuing to spike, the Fed is no longer using the word ‘transitory’ to describe inflation.

U.S. consumer prices jumped 8.6% in May from a year ago, marking the fastest increase since December 1981. That could give the Fed more reason to continue raising interest rates — something that’s already casting a giant shadow over the stock market.

It’s a vicious cycle criticized by many investing veterans. And Rich Dad, Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki is one of the latest experts to sound the alarm.

“When inflation goes up, we’re going to wipe out 50% of the U.S. population,” he told Stansberry Research earlier this year.

Let’s take a closer look at what Kiyosaki means by that.
Kiyosaki isn’t exactly pleased with the current state of the U.S. economy.

“America has stopped producing products, we produce bubbles,” he says, adding that we now have bubbles in the real estate market, the stock market, and the bond market.

The author also criticizes President Joe Biden’s decision to halt the Keystone XL oil pipeline, which he believes is a major reason energy prices are so high.

And that does not bode well for the average Joe.

“The average American doesn’t have 1,000 bucks,” Kiyosaki says. A recent Bankrate survey showed that most Americans do not have enough money set aside to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense.

It also spells trouble for those who want to enjoy their golden years. When the bubbles burst, Kiyosaki says, the stock market will crash. So those relying on their 401(k) plans “are toast.”

“We don’t have a retirement, our pensions are bust.”
Given his grim outlook, it’s no big surprise that Kiyosaki is a fan of safe haven assets like gold and silver. Precious metals can’t be printed out of thin air like fiat money, and they’ve been helping investors preserve their purchasing power for centuries.

The price of gold is up about 8% year to date. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given investors a new reason to check out the yellow metal.

While Kiyosaki owns gold — he first purchased the yellow metal in 1972 — he prefers silver in today’s economic environment.

In a tweet in March, Kiyosaki revealed that he had purchased 2,500 American Silver Eagle bullion coins and offered his bullish reasons for doing so.

“Gold already moved up. Bitcoin still too high,” the tweet says. “Silver 50% below all-time high. Silver an industrial metal as well as $.”

Bubbles tend to pop — eventually. When they do, many people see their wealth take a significant hit. But large declines also create opportunities for those who are willing to buy the dip.

“The good thing about a bubble is when they burst, everything goes on sale,” Kiyosaki says.

During the financial crisis of 2008, the author started “buying real estate at bargain prices.” Based on how much real estate has gone up since then, it’s fair to say that was a sharp move.

Stocks can be volatile, cryptos make big swings to either side, and even gold is not immune to the market’s ups and downs.

That’s why if you are looking for the ultimate hedge, it could be worthwhile to check out a real, but overlooked asset: fine art.

Contemporary artwork has outperformed the S&P 500 by a commanding 174% over the past 25 years, according to the Citi Global Art Market chart.

And it’s becoming a popular way to diversify because it’s a real physical asset with little correlation to the stock market.

On a scale of -1 to +1, with 0 representing no link at all, Citi found the correlation between contemporary art and the S&P 500 was just 0.12 during the past 25 years.

Earlier this year, Bank of America investment chief Michael Harnett singled out artwork as a sharp way to outperform over the next decade — due largely to the asset’s track record as an inflation hedge.

Investing in art by the likes of Banksy and Andy Warhol used to be an option only for the ultrarich. But with a new investing platform, you can invest in iconic artworks just like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates do.
The hell is he smoking about fine art retaining value? I'd rather keep bullets on hand. Maybe they just don't see full economic collapse on the horizon?
 
The hell is he smoking about fine art retaining value? I'd rather keep bullets on hand. Maybe they just don't see full economic collapse on the horizon?
I don't know about that. The fine arts market 99% exists for money laundering by the elite and organized crime like cartels, the Mafia, etc. The price of art can actually fluctuate based on the laws and regulations governments apply to money laundering. It might not actually be a bad investment since I (sadly) don't see the current elite, let alone drug cartels and shit, going away anytime soon. Just gotta watch out for countries trying out new anti-money laundering laws.

Funny enough the US government declined to change their laws regarding money laundering and art a few months ago. Sure is interesting...
 
In my view, it seems like there are two camps of thought here on KF. The first camp is in the “I’m simply here to enjoy the ride” view and the second camp actually believes the garbage that spews out of Bitcoin Maxis and mETH addicts.
So at the outset I basically agree with you so theres that out of the way.

I bank part of my outlook on the crypto market on the folks in Camp 2. Their belief and willingness to make their crypto projects work are enough for me to believe that there will be people willing to make the investment to cash me out. It truly is a gamble, but there are a lot of very stupid people willing to put money in. Hell I've had arguements with holders that its like gambling and they're dumb enough to think they'll get their money back of the project doesnt mint or whatever.
 
So at the outset I basically agree with you so theres that out of the way.

I bank part of my outlook on the crypto market on the folks in Camp 2. Their belief and willingness to make their crypto projects work are enough for me to believe that there will be people willing to make the investment to cash me out. It truly is a gamble, but there are a lot of very stupid people willing to put money in. Hell I've had arguements with holders that its like gambling and they're dumb enough to think they'll get their money back of the project doesnt mint or whatever.

I can see your POV and I understand. There is certainly opportunity in fleecing frauds as well.

Although I’m personally opposed to the cryptocurrency economy on principle, I much prefer to talk and deal with folks that see this market for what it really is than deal with zealots that think Bitcoin and Co. are the second coming of Christ.

The software and source code is in the zeitgeist, so stopping it is really not possible at this stage. That said, I just hope the rabid infatuation and fandom eventually dies off one day (perhaps after another massive black swan event cleans out too many folks and then exchanges get regulated to death, steering normies away) so I don’t have to have it in my face every time I check the news or my favorite tech websites.

Thanks for your kind and insightful comment @Crux
 
Back
Top Bottom