Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?
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- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
In theory you can, but that would require assets staying the same price while inflation occurs in reigns in the PE and NAV, as well as reduces the actual burden of the debt many of the companies hold. However, the asset price won't stay the same and will just inflate as people seek stores of value.
One of the worst things is the 401k, as it tied in the stock market to everyone's life making too big to fail a reality and whenever the market falls everyone freaks out causing things like extended periods of QE and lot interest rates.
They didn't need to be, but retarded energy policy dictated by a downie mumble munchkin made them depend on Russia.
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2018
Well, biggest since 1947. It's also driven hard by energy price increases. I'd just ignore the schizoposter.
Nopenopenope
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2020
Current issues with the market lol. That's like me shitting my pants and calling it a current issue with my trousers. It's over boys
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2019
Here's my investment advice for this market. Stash a month's worth of food in your basement. If you own a house your bought before prices went retarded, invest in making your house more energy efficient because energy prices will keep rising. If you can ride it out for the next year or two and hang onto your job, you'll be fine.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
I would add to this, winterize your car. Make sure anything that can get broken in the next 2 years has a replacement. Buy your next 4 sets of tires now. Buy your next battery, now. Take it to the dealer, now, and do an all points inspection of the suspension, belts, hoses, and alternator.
The wonderful global supply chain we were all told would produce endless bounty is failing. You don't want to be stranded with a dead vehicle because the slaves in Malaysia can't make a battery for the Phillipino slaves to ship to America because the Pakistani Slaves have not been able to ship key inputs from their mine due to the fact there is no fuel.
- Joined
- May 25, 2013
My personal advice; get out of anything volatile and related to consumer spending. The only thing holding the S&P from a historical crash is Apple. And the rumor is Apple has been "fudging" it's profit numbers to maintain it price. Not outright lies but damn close.
I listened in on this last quarters call and the top brass played dodge the question on company finical stability reports for the full call. Not a single report about consumer spending nor a drop of info about the status of the reserve funds built up over the last decade. Very very very scary.
It's entirely possible that Apple has over extended itself during the bubble and only creative accounting is keeping a lid on it. And if Apple pops off and starts to drop then kiss the S&P index goodbye.
I would get into solid, dividend paying, natural resource companies for now. We know despite how much the current government hates oil it's still very very nessary and you can at least expect natural resources companies to hold value if the retail sector and tech sectors go squish. All of my oil related investments have maintained value during the last two weeks. The same for potash and other extractables. I wish I could say the same for my REIT's...
We could easily see at very serious retraction over the next 2-5 years. To the order of something like a full 33%. The last decade has been a time of easy money but now it's time to pay the piper. And it sure doesn't help that all across the West we have some of the most terrifying leaders ever to be in power both from an economic viewpoint and a civil viewpoint.
I would also advise keeping cash on hand for when we do see bottom. The 2008 crash helped me double my net worth because I was lucky enough to have cash on hand when the bottom came and was able to get in as the rebound started.
This time though, with such clowns in charge who the fuck knows how long that will take.
But what do I know, I'm just some random jerk on the internet.
I listened in on this last quarters call and the top brass played dodge the question on company finical stability reports for the full call. Not a single report about consumer spending nor a drop of info about the status of the reserve funds built up over the last decade. Very very very scary.
It's entirely possible that Apple has over extended itself during the bubble and only creative accounting is keeping a lid on it. And if Apple pops off and starts to drop then kiss the S&P index goodbye.
I would get into solid, dividend paying, natural resource companies for now. We know despite how much the current government hates oil it's still very very nessary and you can at least expect natural resources companies to hold value if the retail sector and tech sectors go squish. All of my oil related investments have maintained value during the last two weeks. The same for potash and other extractables. I wish I could say the same for my REIT's...
We could easily see at very serious retraction over the next 2-5 years. To the order of something like a full 33%. The last decade has been a time of easy money but now it's time to pay the piper. And it sure doesn't help that all across the West we have some of the most terrifying leaders ever to be in power both from an economic viewpoint and a civil viewpoint.
I would also advise keeping cash on hand for when we do see bottom. The 2008 crash helped me double my net worth because I was lucky enough to have cash on hand when the bottom came and was able to get in as the rebound started.
This time though, with such clowns in charge who the fuck knows how long that will take.
But what do I know, I'm just some random jerk on the internet.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Michael Burry is apparently short Apple.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2021
I was going to voice my opposition to this stance, then I looked up the stock to see what changes and he's probably not wrong. I remember when there was a race to 1 trillion and now Apple is well over 2 Trillion a couple years later. The metrics still seem ok but what are they really going to introduce, as even I a long term Apple anti own an iphone.
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2019
Why not do the easy thing and put a big old short on Apple?
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2020
On a pretty rational note, it would be fair to say Russia isn't going away nor the sanctions. It would also be fair to say should Russia take some extreme steps, that China's stance on Russia could become pivotal for the global economy. It is not unrealistic to think that should Russia use banned or prohibited weapons or launch against a NATO protected country that there would be a demand to sever any and all ties with Russia economically - whole and complete.
If China would opt to hold it's ties; there is a realistic chance China could be subject to sanctions and extreme tariffs which would essentially crash the global economy. It is not an unrealistic outcome.
Therefore, from a self preservation step while we would naturally not see food or gas or energy disappear, we would see elevated costs. However, the economic damage done globally is likely to be permanent in that many goods will disappear from the shelves.
I am more concerned with China's take on what unfolds this year than I am with Russia TBH. Sadly, the US doctrine of providing economic benefit to countries of opposing political ideologies has in truth some workability to control the countries to a degree, but the larger they get, it is more akin to attempting to control a teenager who is aware of their own rights and is hard to manage. Some grow to be worthwhile partners while others grow more apart.
If we see a global realignment, it will be a tough 10-15 years ahead and for a while, with a strong probability of resource wars related to raw materials unfold.
Whatever your take on what is going on and what will happen, regardless, it is important to understand a singular truth in all this: That the future is comprised of the actions of many and prediction is utterly impossible unless one knows all the steps everyone takes be it a CEO of a company or a President of a country or its governing bodies. There is no master plan.
Globalism was the best protection against conflict with limited resources and a growing population with growing needs. It's destruction removes that protection and conflict economically and militarily is almost a certainty.
Whether it would be Trump in office or Biden, the problem that has arisen is bigger than the both of them and other countries and leaders have choices to be made that ultimately will contribute to the outcome regardless of what the big dog (USA) wants.
Russia squeezed the toothpaste out with Ukraine, and there is no putting it back in.
If China would opt to hold it's ties; there is a realistic chance China could be subject to sanctions and extreme tariffs which would essentially crash the global economy. It is not an unrealistic outcome.
Therefore, from a self preservation step while we would naturally not see food or gas or energy disappear, we would see elevated costs. However, the economic damage done globally is likely to be permanent in that many goods will disappear from the shelves.
I am more concerned with China's take on what unfolds this year than I am with Russia TBH. Sadly, the US doctrine of providing economic benefit to countries of opposing political ideologies has in truth some workability to control the countries to a degree, but the larger they get, it is more akin to attempting to control a teenager who is aware of their own rights and is hard to manage. Some grow to be worthwhile partners while others grow more apart.
If we see a global realignment, it will be a tough 10-15 years ahead and for a while, with a strong probability of resource wars related to raw materials unfold.
Whatever your take on what is going on and what will happen, regardless, it is important to understand a singular truth in all this: That the future is comprised of the actions of many and prediction is utterly impossible unless one knows all the steps everyone takes be it a CEO of a company or a President of a country or its governing bodies. There is no master plan.
Globalism was the best protection against conflict with limited resources and a growing population with growing needs. It's destruction removes that protection and conflict economically and militarily is almost a certainty.
Whether it would be Trump in office or Biden, the problem that has arisen is bigger than the both of them and other countries and leaders have choices to be made that ultimately will contribute to the outcome regardless of what the big dog (USA) wants.
Russia squeezed the toothpaste out with Ukraine, and there is no putting it back in.
- Joined
- Feb 1, 2022
- Joined
- May 25, 2013
Because it's only a rumor. If I had any actual facts I would short Apple to hell and back. (And probably go to the SEC) But I'm old and thus my investment strategy is more about conserving my wealth then growing it thru risky hedges.
High risk evey now and then is fine if your under 40 but as you get older you have to start being more aware that you probably won't have the time to make up any huge losses.
My typical strategy (before the last 5 or 6 years cuz fuck if I understand this new market) was:
40% in low risk assests such as banks, utilities and good old fashion performers preferred shares. This all pay out a solid dividend and are actually 90% responsible for my wealth generation.
30% mid risk stocks such as techs, REITs and fast moving ETFs. Great when your in your 30s.
20% "high" risk (at the time) such as Shopify, Amazon Canukistan Marijuana stocks (which I made enough on during the pump phase to pay off my new 911T and take a 6 month round the world cruise. But others held to long and got crushed when they tanked. Remember you never go broke taking your profit out!) and other break out companies. This is where most of my big gains come from but aso some heavy losses as your kinda betting on pretty unknowns at the time. You should always limit these types in your portfolio, too much risk will bite you in the ass sooner or later.
10% gambling. This is my fun money where I can try to take advantage of pump and dumps, tips from friends and other crazy ventures like start ups. (I once help fund a gold prospecting trip!) This is the fun stuff I enjoy but over all I've lost in this category due to some really bad timing where I broke my "take out your profit" rule cuz I was greedy and said "just a few more points then I'll sell" too often.
Remember: Always set your limits and don't be afraid to take your profit. So what if the stock climbs a bit more after you've sold. Set you limits and stick to them like glue.
But what do I know, I'm just some asshole on the internet.
DumbDude42
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Sep 12, 2019
high risk when you're young is still retarded because you risk financially crippling the most important years of your life
really, high risk investment should only be done if you are comfortable and secure, and have some spare money lying around that you don't really need and that you can afford to lose without the loss causing serious consequences in your life.
- Joined
- May 25, 2013
Well I obviously disagree.
If you fuck up when your young you've got ;
1: less to lose as your fund pool will be smaller
2: most of your investing life ahead so a big % set back won't cause you to be eating cat food in your twilight years as you can keep working and earning. After a certain age your income is set and not really able to expand.
If your taking big risks in your 40s and 50s then your an idiot, unless of course you've go cash to burn but then why are you taking big risks to start with if you already have the disposable income?
The older you get the more conservative your approach should be.
Just my opinion.
- Joined
- Jul 7, 2020
I've seen a larger influx of old boomers acting riskier with their investments, likely due to the 10 year bullrun they were spoiled with.
Now as a recession looms they are going to be in deep shit and unable to retire. Feel a little bad for them, hut simultaneously, wtf are they thinking...
- Joined
- Nov 21, 2021
I just wanted to say there is a lot of good advice I picked up in this thread that really made this crash easier than it could have been. I have been able to weather the nearly doubling of my mortgage interest rate between initial disclosure and lock in, and keep my home purchase on track (and to still be able to afford it). So thank you to the thread.
- Joined
- Nov 1, 2021
>crypto is the future
>Put all savings in crypto
>Lose a third to indian scams
>Lose a third fo chinese pump and dumps
>Lose the rest because the Congress made it illegal to own
>Put all savings in crypto
>Lose a third to indian scams
>Lose a third fo chinese pump and dumps
>Lose the rest because the Congress made it illegal to own
- Joined
- Jan 21, 2018
Still way overvalued relative to 2yrs ago too. That said I’d much prefer a slow bleed for years versus just having the market crater overnight.