Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

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Salade Nicoise said:
I have a maybe dumb question (I'm really not great at the finance stuff, I gotta admit). And apologies if this is the wrong thread for it, I just didn't think it warranted it's own...

So I live and work internationally, but get paid in USD into a US bank account. It is absolutely pummelling my native currency at the moment (I assume this is reserve currency/Ukraine stuff but see above, I don't know shit about fuck).

Like fisting it. Like if I pulled out the latest draw down I received and converted it I'd make an extra $12k locally. That's excluding the conversion fee.

I'm just wondering if any of you smart Kiwi business heads can give me any feelings on how the USD is likely to go these next few months? How does the dollar hold during a recession? How stable is it etc? I don't want to pull it all if it's going to creep up a little more, but obviously don't want to miss out if it falls on its ass.
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The dollar is going up because of the interest rate hikes. If you believe the fed will have a few more hikes later this year (probably will) then yes, it will go up some more. Don't know your currency, but a euro is about $1.04 now and the lowest it's ever been is around $0.85.

I will enjoy my discount euro vacation this summer. USA! USA!
 
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Xarpho said:
Doomer mindset says that you need to invest in ammo and non-perishable foods.
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If you're hedging against a catastrophic collapse of the global economy then you should have become Mormon and moved to SLC a long time ago.

Strong social ties are going to be much more important in that sort of situation than hoarding physical gold and silver like you're fucking Smaug or something.
 
eternal dog mongler said:
Strong social ties are going to be much more important in that sort of situation than hoarding physical gold and silver like you're fucking Smaug or something.
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I agree with this and will add: You are nothing but what you have in within you.
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In today's society, you will find that your friends are not your friends at all. They are only there for what you can give them.

Real friends are so hard to come by in these times. Be it family or people you met along the way.
I have only 5 true friends. These friends are the people that I would get out of bed and help them if they got stranded someplace real bad.

Those are the types of friends you want to have. Especially during these times.

I have 5 true friends to fall back on.
 
The market is down 4% today, with some stocks being down double digits, but I'm still not really inspired to open any new positions. My personal portfolio is down 2.6% today but most positions I opened a month or so ago are still above what I paid for them initially, or they're just about where I started them. Says a bit about how wonky the stock market is currently.
 
Retink said:
The market is down 4% today, with some stocks being down double digits, but I'm still not really inspired to open any new positions. My personal portfolio is down 2.6% today but most positions I opened a month or so ago are still above what I paid for them initially, or they're just about where I started them. Says a bit about how wonky the stock market is currently.
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I fairly recently moved a good chunk of mine into BrkB and a few different UK investment trusts that were priced well below their NAV (both have the least punishing tax treatment where i am). Down 1.7%ish overall for the day so far but i can see it dropping a little more in after-market trading.

It's genuinely confusing what's going on with the market at the moment. It's having crazy day-to-day swings and it's not really based on anything one way or the other.
 
trent said:
I fairly recently moved a good chunk of mine into BrkB and a few different UK investment trusts that were priced well below their NAV (both have the least punishing tax treatment where i am). Down 1.7%ish overall for the day so far but i can see it dropping a little more in after-market trading.

It's genuinely confusing what's going on with the market at the moment. It's having crazy day-to-day swings and it's not really based on anything one way or the other.
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There are definitely deals out there, but right now the swings are so big that looking at things in terms of percent change per day isn't very useful as even though something might be down double digits it's only because it went up even more the prior week.

I'm a really boring investor, I just buy dividend stocks that are down on news but I think will recover once that news changes. That way even if things go south I can just continue to hold, collect dividends, and reinvest those into into other positions as a means to recoup while I wait. I'm guessing if I was more of a day trader this market would be exciting, but that's just not for me, I'd rather buy things like Target, Qcom, and other such names and just hold until I want to sell them to use the money for other things.

Looking at some recent positions within the last couple months, I bought XLE for about 55$ and now it's 81$, KMB for 119$ and now it's 132$ after over a 4% drop today, CLX at 132$ and it's still 146$ with almost a 7% drop. Am I really going to add to any of these positions? I don't really think I should, none of their PE ratios are even attractive. Maybe there are some REITs I can grab at a discount or add to a couple positions like INTC, MMM, or GLW as those are below cost, but it's not by much except INTC though I have rather good positions in each as those are the ones I think have the most upside long term.

I initiated a small position in KHC today just because the dividend is reasonable being above 3%, I like some of their brands, and their PE is 16 with a recent good earnings report. Though even then it's well above where it was at the start of the year. It was really more of a "the market is down a lot today, guess I should buy something as you never know what the FED might do tomorrow".
 
I'm out completely. The bear market in the stock market is going to wreck the stable coins. Tether is particular is very exposed to the collapse in Asset prices. Too much of their peg is backed by paper. The storm is here guys, this is just the first front waves of the hurricane. Get to safe harbor.
 
Any oldfags have any advice for what to do for 401k since things seem to be teetering on the edge of recession?

Best I got is to slash contributions down to 3% down so the match is 100% and redirect all contributions to a stable value fund (and possible rebalance my portfolio to it as well) until it seems that bottom has been hit then readjust things back to normal.
 
vern said:
Any oldfags have any advice for what to do for 401k since things seem to be teetering on the edge of recession?

Best I got is to slash contributions down to 3% down so the match is 100% and redirect all contributions to a stable value fund (and possible rebalance my portfolio to it as well) until it seems that bottom has been hit then readjust things back to normal.
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If you can time it right it's not a bad idea. The challenge is timing it right. This might be another late-2018 mini-bear and the bottom is near, or this might be another early-2000s protracted bear and we're not even close to the end yet. It's impossible to tell.
 
Spasticus Autisticus said:
If you can time it right it's not a bad idea. The challenge is timing it right. This might be another late-2018 mini-bear and the bottom is near, or this might be another early-2000s protracted bear and we're not even close to the end yet. It's impossible to tell.
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True, I'm sure everyone here has a number or date to where things will bottom out for one reason or another but only hindsight will tell if there where somewhat right or just pure cope.
 
Spasticus Autisticus said:
If you can time it right it's not a bad idea. The challenge is timing it right. This might be another late-2018 mini-bear and the bottom is near, or this might be another early-2000s protracted bear and we're not even close to the end yet. It's impossible to tell.
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The stock market doesn't make sense at the best of times. Look at where we're at compared to the 3/20 COVID dip.

This shit needs to be corrected. I wouldn't start stocking up on ammo and cans of baked beans just yet.
 
eternal dog mongler said:
This shit needs to be corrected.
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Does it? I think the inflation is part of that correction, because if you can't correct the market by sinking it due to how entrenched it has become you can always inflate to correct the currency to the market. The bigger question is will the market just push up even higher due to the ability to borrow and create debt.
 
Retink said:
Does it? I think the inflation is part of that correction, because if you can't correct the market by sinking it due to how entrenched it has become you can always inflate to correct the currency to the market. The bigger question is will the market just push up even higher due to the ability to borrow and create debt.
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Yeah, you can't exactly correct the market through creating inflation via QE.

Unfortunately people think that the stock market is representative of overall economic health, so they'll be watching DJI go up while wondering why there are so many people living in vans on their street now.
 
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