Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

[eternal dog mongler]

I find it really interesting that we are basically going to experience stagflation from the 70's again. (Also makes the Biden = Carter 2.0 comparisons even more apt.) From a historical perspective, it's insane how much the 2020's appear to be setup to mirror the 1970's.

And in the 70s the Fed raised rates and threw the economy into a recession. It's doubtful they will repeat that. Treasury futures suggest that investors think they'll actually go negative with rates sometime after the October jobs report drops.

So we'll probably end up like Japan. A lot of people don't realize just how long the government can keep a zombie economy churning, even though it sucks for everyone living in it.

 

[mindlessobserver]

And in the 70s the Fed raised rates and threw the economy into a recession. It's doubtful they will repeat that. Treasury futures suggest that investors think they'll actually go negative with rates sometime after the October jobs report drops.

So we'll probably end up like Japan. A lot of people don't realize just how long the government can keep a zombie economy churning, even though it sucks for everyone living in it.

True...but wasn't the big hallmark about Japan's malaise that the meltdown was contained inside Japan? I question how much control the Fed actually has considering how globally connected the US economy is. Any number of things outside their control like China could trigger things.

 

[Slobber Mutt]

"The dominant market of the world is slowly collapsing"

"Anyways, buy and hold this coin here, now."

no thanks Shekelberg, I'll stick to 100oz gold bars

 

[Stoneheart]

Before covid and all of the shenanigans that followed people where very eagerly pointing at Italy, not sure why but it seems Italy collapsing was being pushed as the starting sign of the end of the world in several articles

Thats because journalists are retards... Italy has structural problems they need to fix, they have been chugging along for decades and are pretty stable.
Italy breaking into 2 or 3 parts is a bigger possibility than a collapse.

It's because among the advanced economies Italy had one of the largest debt to GDP ratios. Since the US Covid spending however, pointing out that statistic has become "problematic" don't worry though. Italy like everyone else is over leveraged to a frightening degree.

Italys debt is under controll, its mostly held by italians that just hold it till maturity and thann roll over. that makes their bond market very complicated. there arent many on the market and small signals lead to big spikes. but even a 2 point crash doesnt lead to a massive, possible fatal collapse.

The Debt situation is like Japans, the cause are different, Italy has alot of pretty healthy sectors that generate good profits. their problem is that half their country is full of lazy southern italians....

 

[LUNEKO]

Thats because journalists are retards...

 

[eternal dog mongler]

True...but wasn't the big hallmark about Japan's malaise that the meltdown was contained inside Japan? I question how much control the Fed actually has considering how globally connected the US economy is. Any number of things outside their control like China could trigger things.

From our perspective, no, but it did eventually crash several economies in SEA.

I honestly don't think we in the west have that much exposure to Asian markets.

 

[mindlessobserver]

From our perspective, no, but it did eventually crash several economies in SEA.

I honestly don't think we in the west have that much exposure to Asian markets.

We do though. Our fearless leaders have outsourced absolutely CRITICAL industries to Asia. Going to go with my absolute favorite. The humble ball bearing. This thing is absolutely CRITICAL for practically ALL industries. From cement to automobiles.

And look where they are made.

Ball bearings exports by country |2018

China is almost double the production of the number 2, which is Japan. The USA produces fewer Ball Bearings then FRANCE. If there is a meltdown in China, they are not going to be producing ball bearings. Which means the USA won't be producing cars, cement, steel.....and if Japan's economy goes down with China's there won't be any ball bearings for anyone. Not in the quantities required.

Now extrapolate this out from every cheap ass widget you don't think of. Nuts, bolts, nails....microprocessors....plastic...

The entire global supply chain will disintegrate in an instant. The country will fall for want of a ball bearing. This would be an absolute disaster by itself, but now consider just how over leveraged all those corporations who NEED those ball bearings are. What happens when their debts are due and they cant make anything? What happens to the banks who own those debts.

Oh no, we have massive exposure to China.

 

[Flabba Wabba Jabba]

Crypto will shit the bed since the general consumer, typically required to FOMO in and drive the parabolic push, will instead be spending money on food and other essentials in a mile long line stretching out the door into 20 degree weather.

But what will they be spending that with? If things get that dire, I guarantee a considerable number of vendors will switch over to Bitcoin or other digital assets to protect themselves against inflation/deflation. It happened in Zimbabwe to the US dollar, what's to say people will continue using a worthless fiat currency if there are clear, better alternatives?

 

[Kosher Dill]

It happened in Zimbabwe to the US dollar, what's to say people will continue using a worthless fiat currency if there are clear, better alternatives?

If a major economy's fiat currency becomes worthless, people will necessarily fall back to precious metals in its place.
Specifically, the most precious metal of all: lead.

 

[Stoneheart]

China is almost double the production of the number 2, which is Japan. The USA produces fewer Ball Bearings then FRANCE. If there is a meltdown in China, they are not going to be producing ball bearings. Which means the USA won't be producing cars, cement, steel.....and if Japan's economy goes down with China's there won't be any ball bearings for anyone. Not in the quantities required.

Do we trust those numbers? how is the EU exporting less than germany alone?

You also just need Ball bearings if you have a product that uses Ball Bearings. If your machines use Ball bearings, just order spareparts from the germany company that made them.

 

[Quindoll]

Do we trust those numbers? how is the EU exporting less than germany alone?

You also just need Ball bearings if you have a product that uses Ball Bearings. If your machines use Ball bearings, just order spareparts from the germany company that made them.

Germany sends ball bearings to France => German export numbers increase, the EU numbers do not since there was no export from the EU, just an interstate trade

Germany sends ball bearings to the USA => German export numbers increase as well as the EU numbers

 

[mindlessobserver]

I am completely out at this point. I am holding some Ethereum, and the rest of my money is going to Physical Gold and Silver.

 

[Kujo Jotaro]

I am completely out at this point. I am holding some Ethereum, and the rest of my money is going to Physical Gold and Silver.

When you walk away
You don't hear me say,
"Please, oh baby, don't go."
Simple and clean is the way that you're making me feel tonight
It's hard to let it go

Hold me
Whatever lies beyond this morning
Is a little later on
Regardless of warnings the future doesn't scare me at all
Nothing's like before

 

[Audit]

I'm hedging my bets on the rich wall street/feds types to do what they can to prevent another crash. Like others in this thread, I'm predicting stagflation. However, I also suspect the US is in the early/mid stages of transitioning to neo-feudalism. If housing/cars/your software are all rented, the people who own critical needs and intellectual/corporate property today will make out like bandits, leaving everyone else behind as rent slave peasants.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but my bets are all-in on the stock market for now because rich people hate losing money. The day all the CEO's cash out is the day I do too.

 

[Enig]

We do though. Our fearless leaders have outsourced absolutely CRITICAL industries to Asia. Going to go with my absolute favorite. The humble ball bearing. This thing is absolutely CRITICAL for practically ALL industries. From cement to automobiles.

And look where they are made.

Ball bearings exports by country |2018

China is almost double the production of the number 2, which is Japan. The USA produces fewer Ball Bearings then FRANCE. If there is a meltdown in China, they are not going to be producing ball bearings. Which means the USA won't be producing cars, cement, steel.....and if Japan's economy goes down with China's there won't be any ball bearings for anyone. Not in the quantities required.

Now extrapolate this out from every cheap ass widget you don't think of. Nuts, bolts, nails....microprocessors....plastic...

The entire global supply chain will disintegrate in an instant. The country will fall for want of a ball bearing. This would be an absolute disaster by itself, but now consider just how over leveraged all those corporations who NEED those ball bearings are. What happens when their debts are due and they cant make anything? What happens to the banks who own those debts.

Oh no, we have massive exposure to China.

So, what you are saying is, the chinese have the free world by the balls... balls of steel.

 

[Game master arino]

The economy of the united states is increasingly resembling the Nazis with all these insane regulations.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Lock down is complete, I suppose. It's not as well done as I would like but is what it is. I now own an acre land and a house far from the city taking advantage of the crazy interest rates. Have a pile of ethereum, and precious metals and enough food to last till June. Also bought a dog, gun, ammo, and my job is now a fully funded contract for the next 12 months.

I think that is all I can do at this point. I certainly put my money where my mouth is for sure. Now I will just accumulate cash so I can buy the big dip.

 

[69ing Ur Mom]

Shit is boring as fuck when everyone agrees. Anyone that thinks stagflation is coming is a slack jawed faggot. Unless you're not in the US, then you're probably fucked.

Japan's lost decades are because the Japanese culture is total shit. They're a bunch of racists that would rather go hang themselves than fuck each other. It's a LOLcow of a country.

It'd be nice if inflation was lower, but the US is not on the verge of hyperinflation. The narrative around that is doomer porn bait for clicks. The "journalists" writing those articles don't know jack shit as proven by their shitty low wage job.

Unemployment is only a problem for bottom of the barrel companies that deserve to go bankrupt. People are only complaining about this because they have to wait an extra 5 minutes in line to get their fast food. Why stand all day getting yelled at by fat fucks, when you could do food or Amazon package delivery for a higher hourly wage and a stable work schedule?

There is and will continue to be a large increase in small business creation, which drives real economic growth. 2020 saw an increase in the number of small businesses in the US. The 2021 numbers are going to look like the graph popped a boner. No one talks about that because it won't drive web traffic.

2021 Small Business Profiles For The States, The District of Columbia, and The U.S.

Advocacy’s annual State Profiles provide a snapshot of each state’s small businesses. The profiles gather the latest federal economic data into state-by-state snapshots of small business health and economic activity. This year’s profi

advocacy.sba.gov

Older and larger companies burdened with high debt loads and office leases are not going to be able to compete against the coming onslaught of small businesses. No one wants to kiss the ass of a boomer executive in an "open" office environment. The highest skilled, most productive employees have almost unanimously decided they'll work from home.

The willingness of people to work from home dramatically lowers the barriers to entry for new companies. They are not constrained to a local talent pool that exists in high rent areas. There's going to be an explosion in competition which is going to lead to large amounts of real economic growth. This decade is going to be awesome.

 

[Spasticus Autisticus]

I agree that inflation fears are overblown but I can’t bring myself to be so sanguine about the future.

COVID related restrictions created structural damage to the economy that will persist for many years even if every government in the world immediately went back to pre-2020 normal. That damage will have effects that are difficult to predict. An entire generation of children are being raised as hypochondriac shut-ins. They are about to lose two critical years of educational and social development and will probably miss at least a year more. Increases in learning disabilities, personality disorders, and low educational attainment are virtually certain and will be a drag on the economy for decades. If vaccine doomers are correct about long-term side effects of the COVID vaccines, we may have swaths of the labor pool rendered unable to do many jobs.

Vaccine mandates will have the effect of a mass economy-wide layoff of at least 5% of the workforce at a time when labor is already hard to come by. Heavily Democrat jurisdictions are showing no sign of easing up on vaccine mandates or restrictions and we can hardly depend on the supposedly conservative-leaning Supreme Court to stop it. Then on top of this, several blue states have “green” initiatives with apparently little consideration for how these will be implemented or affect sectors of the economy that can’t be done in or near urban areas.

Political discourse in the US has reached disturbing levels of rancor and divisiveness. Election years have been and will likely continue to be marked with mass rioting and property destruction in cities. Government seems only to exist to give knee-jerk reactions to crises that are largely of their own making.

I’m still long US stocks and bonds, but that’s less because I think we’re going to boom and more because the rest of the world looks even worse.

 

[Kosher Dill]

An entire generation of children are being raised as hypochondriac shut-ins. They are about to lose two critical years of educational and social development

In my area I've started seeing ads for "Social Skills Classes For Kids And Teens!" Clearly at least someone thinks we're already far gone enough to need this.