Crypto market has become ‘very confusing,’ losing all logic – Traders - The confusion comes after the broad consensus among crypto analysts and traders in late 2024 was that Bitcoin's dominance would peak in early 2025 with Trump’s election win and speculation about the US making a Bitcoin (BTC $98,271) reserve.

The crypto market isn’t following the same old patterns anymore — and it’s throwing crypto traders off.

“The market is totally cooked,” pseudonymous crypto trader Sykodelic said in a Feb. 4 X post. They added that despite pro-crypto moves from the US government and President Donald Trump, the market “just keeps on retracing.”

It has lost any sort of rhyme or reason…This is very confusing for almost every investor.

Crypto trader The Bitcoin Therapist said in a Feb. 4 X post that “something is terribly wrong with the market’s pricing of Bitcoin.”

“We are easily $50K-$100K undervalued. There is far too much to be bullish about. There is going to be a violent repricing,” they added.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall market sentiment, dropped to a “Neutral” score of 54 on Feb. 5, down 18 points from its “Greed” score of 72 just a day earlier.

The confusion comes after the broad consensus among crypto analysts and traders in late 2024 was that Bitcoin's dominance would peak in early 2025 with Trump’s election win and speculation about the US making a Bitcoin (BTC $98,271) reserve.

Capital was anticipated to then rotate into the altcoin market, marking what many see as the beginning of “altcoin season.”

At the time of publication, Bitcoin dominance stands at 61.47% — already higher than crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen’s prediction in August that it would top out at 60% before an altcoin season would begin.



Despite Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of over $109,000 on Jan. 20 around Trump’s inauguration, it has recently seen increased volatility. Macroeconomic events are often not accounted for by traders in their predictions, who typically rely on historical performance.

On Feb. 3, escalating concerns over a potential trade war caused by Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China led to the “largest liquidation event in crypto history.”

Over $2.24 billion was liquidated from the crypto markets within 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data, though some commentators suggest the figure could be as high as $10 billion.

Trump later paused the planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico after negotiations, yet Bitcoin continues to trade below the psychological $100,000 price level.

At the time of publication, it is trading at $97,925, as per CoinMarketCap.

MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said in a Feb. 4 X post that despite the US government aiming for the “golden age for crypto,” people expect “the market to be peaked.”

“It’s literally just getting started,” he added.

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[Lone MacReady II]

I would argue that ponzis unbacked fiat/digital currency in general has "Very Confusing Logic".

 

[Bonesjones]

This completely unregulated market based on imaginary products isn't behaving rationally! How am I supposed to make money based on this? It's like gambling but even more retarded!

 

[Sexy Senior Citizen]

Translation: our funny graph patterns are no longer reliable. We have to actually invest based on merit now, and we're too lazy to do our own research.

 

[Neo-Nazi Rich Evans]

something is terribly wrong with the market’s pricing of Bitcoin.”

“We are easily $50K-$100K undervalued. There is far too much to be bullish about. There is going to be a violent repricing,” they added.

The confusion comes after the broad consensus among crypto analysts and traders in late 2024 was that Bitcoin's dominance would peak in early 2025 with Trump’s election win and speculation about the US making a Bitcoin (BTC $98,271) reserve.

what this all sounds like to me is crypto bros predicted that trump would cause crypto to go to the moon, and when that didnt happen they are now coping and sneeding over it.
pretty simple, their predictions were wrong and they are struggling to accept it. common crypto bro L.

 

[Ah ha']

what this all sounds like to me is crypto bros predicted that trump would cause crypto to go to the moon, and when that didnt happen they are now coping and sneeding over it.
pretty simple, their predictions were wrong and they are struggling to accept it. common crypto bro L.

This is basically what has happened, but there are a lot of genuine projects on here now that basically use crypto as a way of crowdfunding their research/work.

I believe this will only benefit those aforementioned projects and we will see less casino playing/memes and pump and dump schemes.

 

[Blewberry Nausea]

Anyone know how Trump and Melania’s coins are doing now?

 

[Aidan]

The problem with crypto is there still isn't a use for normies. Almost everyone buying crypto is doing so with the intent to sell it off for fiat. When that's the entire market it's going to be retarded.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

This is basically what has happened, but there are a lot of genuine projects on here now that basically use crypto as a way of crowdfunding their research/work.

I believe this will only benefit those aforementioned projects and we will see less casino playing/memes and pump and dump schemes.

The genuine projects are the ones that have been hit hardest and frequently underperformed relative to past cycles. The market essentially revolves around bitcoin and memecoins now.

The problem with crypto is there still isn't a use for normies. Almost everyone buying crypto is doing so with the intent to sell it off for fiat. When that's the entire market it's going to be retarded.

Even memes like Chainlink are used in banking infrastructure now.

 

[Aidan]

Even memes like Chainlink are used in banking infrastructure now.

The technology is sound. The people investing in it aren't doing it for the tech, the purpose is to sell out. Normies aren't buying cryptocurrency to use cryptocurrency for anything except hoping the price goes to the moon.

 

[TowinKarz]

The technology is sound. The people investing in it aren't doing it for the tech, the purpose is to sell out. Normies aren't buying cryptocurrency to use cryptocurrency for anything except hoping the price goes to the moon.

Or, buying NFTs, also with the hope the price of them goes to the Moon.

I'm personally convinced NFTs were invented for just that reason, so crypto wouldn't crash in it's early days when it became clear that traditional retailers weren't ever going to accept Bitcoin at point of sale. (And the few that bought the techbro hype and actually tried to quickly gave up).

 

[big pauper]

Or, buying NFTs, also with the hope the price of them goes to the Moon.

I'm personally convinced NFTs were invented for just that reason, so crypto wouldn't crash in it's early days when it became clear that traditional retailers weren't ever going to accept Bitcoin at point of sale. (And the few that bought the techbro hype and actually tried to quickly gave up).

a blockchain is just a distributed database and an nft is just a system for putting encryption keys to validate ownership in a blockchain. they're just cd keys but backwards - the database of keys isn't kept secret, its always avaliable, and the only thing you can use them for is to tell you who bought they key. The only people who invest in them don't know what they are.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

The technology is sound. The people investing in it aren't doing it for the tech, the purpose is to sell out. Normies aren't buying cryptocurrency to use cryptocurrency for anything except hoping the price goes to the moon.

Those investors are only a small part of the market. Larger institutional investors, albeit mostly smaller than the big Wall Street funds, are the ones actually doing the investing. Not to mention how the Layer 1 chains function. Every time you buy an NFT or memecoin garbage, you're paying network usage fees. That also happens when banks use it too. The "normies don't use it" argument is a red herring as to the actual utility of cryptocurrency.

 

[Aidan]

Those investors are only a small part of the market. Larger institutional investors, albeit mostly smaller than the big Wall Street funds, are the ones actually doing the investing. Not to mention how the Layer 1 chains function. Every time you buy an NFT or memecoin garbage, you're paying network usage fees. That also happens when banks use it too. The "normies don't use it" argument is a red herring as to the actual utility of cryptocurrency.

I think you're conflating blockchain technology with "cryptocurrency" which uses blockchain technology and is helping popularize it. You're also saying normies use it because companies use it and exchanges profit off of fees. I'm talking about individual people and their personal utility from crypto. Almost no one is buying Bitcoin to use it as a currency to buy anything, they're buying Bitcoin to sit on it and sell later on. That's not treating it like a currency and this has ended up being how most everything "crypto" is treated.

Companies using blockchain technology has nothing to do with cryptocurrency aside from helping to boost cryptocurrency prices by association. The technology is useful but "cryptocurrency" is practically a misnomer when it comes to popular use.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

I think you're conflating blockchain technology with "cryptocurrency" which uses blockchain technology and is helping popularize it. You're also saying normies use it because companies use it and exchanges profit off of fees. I'm talking about individual people and their personal utility from crypto. Almost no one is buying Bitcoin to use it as a currency to buy anything, they're buying Bitcoin to sit on it and sell later on. That's not treating it like a currency and this has ended up being how most everything "crypto" is treated.

And I'm saying that's a total red herring, because the bulk of cryptocurrency is not being used by normies. It is either used by other cryptocurrency projects and pays to use their network or it is used by banks and larger investors than someone dropping sub-6 figures.

Companies using blockchain technology has nothing to do with cryptocurrency aside from helping to boost cryptocurrency prices by association. The technology is useful but "cryptocurrency" is practically a misnomer when it comes to popular use.

Except they need cryptocurrency technology to use those blockchains, like when banks use Chainlink (for instance, to name a notorious shitcoin) in their transactions. Because they use its network, they have to pay in the form of the Chainlink tokens. To say nothing about all the apps and such which are built on platforms like Ethereum or Solana which every time their tokens are transferred, they incur a network usage fee. The idea it's just hoarding money is a boomer-tier perspective.

And like I said, a lot of time it helps raise money for the project to keep improving. In that sense it's little different than investing in start-ups. This is why memecoins are very damaging to cryptocurrency not only in reputation, but in terms of sucking up billions of dollars in liquidity which could instead be used to help develop the technology. Memecoins are just financialization of memes, which for one retarded because fuck financialization and for two most of the memes are faggy.

 

[Aidan]

Blockchains precede cryptocurrency, you don't need crypto to use blockchains. I think most places were unaware of blockchains or didn't think it was worthwhile to implement until Bitcoin made it a buzzword. I'm not in touch with enterprise use of it but anytime I've checked, it has been blockchain usage to have a secure ledger and/or smart contracts. The idea of using it as a decentralized currency in lieu of fiat is still pretty niche and secondary at best for the vast majority of people buying any coin.

In my opinion, the crypto market is primarily fueled by speculation on speculation where the vast majority of those involved are intending to cash out and do nothing else. We'll have to agree to disagree maybe. Time will tell either way.

What do you think determines the dollar value of BTC, ETH, XRP, etc?