Question for those more knowledgeable than I.
Canada is attempting trade with Europe to bypass the US tariffs. However there is a major difference between trading with Europe and trading with the US. The Atlantic Ocean.
So when you take into account the added cost of transport (ships, employees, fuel, extra carbon tax because Canada is anal about its carbon footprint, etc), at what point will the added transportation costs equal or even surpass the tariffs?
Let's take Alberta for example. In order to supply the province, you would either need a ship to port on the east coast and then transport the goods three quarters of the way across Canada on land, or have the ship travel all the way through the Panama Canal to dock on the west coast, literally traveling halfway around the world, and then transport it on land from there. At some point the extra time and effort is not worth it.
It won't.
Or really, it will take years for it to even be reasonably worth the effort.
A] Canada isn't really even fully integrated
domestically.
Alberta has some connections to the West, some to the East, but its more integrated with its southern neighbor, the US, than it is with Ontario, BC, etc. You literally have oil being shipped down south, just to be
refined.
Its like that for basically every province. Ontario is more integrated with upstate NY, Michigan, and the surrounding area, than any other province (it also goes both ways, with the energy grid- though thats a separate issue).
Canada can't even integrate with itself internally, what makes Canadians think they can integrate with the EU?
B] Okay, so lets imagine that by some miracle, Canada is able to detangle itself with the US, and somehow ship things across the ocean.
It is possible. Don't forget that the Saudis and Iraqis, even the Iranians, literally ship oil to East Asia. your biggest logistical hurdles are going to be refining the oil, and frankly- initiating the oil industry domestically. So much of it is held beyond red tape, that this is a separate issue entirely. Shipping is expensive, don't get me wrong, so to make it justifiable, you'd really need
scale to make a profit. Quantity, that we are currently missing, because we basically decimated our own industry on purpose.
You also have to add that we will be competing with Russian oil directly (Im pretty much assuming that the Euros will cuck and reinstate Nordstream again), and theres also oil from Algeria, going through Morocco, into South Europe.
People talk about the British being double crossers- the Europeans put them to shame here (for example, if you get to the politics between Morocco and Algeria, theyre regional rivals and in their own cold war and have been in several hot wars over the Sahara in the past, and the Euros constantly double cross both of them. The French also double cross the Spanish, etc- its why you dont have a direct pipeline across the straight of Gibraltar, even though its been proposed so many times).
Point being, theres other sources of oil, theyre cheaper, closer, and Canada would not be the sole supplier of oil to the EU (Im focusing on that, because literally Canada has fuck else that it can offer the world at this point). On top of that, do not count on Euro loyalty.
Bear in mind that we have a ready and willing market to the south of us already, and building our own pipelines down south is far easier*
C] So lets imagine that we go through with all this anyways? We've antagonized the US, and forced them to diversify away from us. No more upstate NY relying on Canadian energy, right? The US can actually afford to do that though, it can draw upon
the entire country. It'll survive.
The EU, on the other hand- what happens when the Germans push austerity again? What happens when Brussels pushes more climate change shit, requirements to cut down carbon footprints, etc. On second thought, Brussels wouldnt even
have to push that- our politicians may just do that themselves.
The EU isnt the most stable trading partner, frankly. Its always between the throes of left wing populism, such as getting rid of oil and nuclear energy because 'omg its not clean', and then German fiscal fuckery. They basically abandoned south europe in 08 (Spain was one of the fastest growing economies), whats to say that Canada isn't stepping into something bad itself? What if Europe moves away from oil in 10 years? Pretty big chances, unironically. They kind of need us now, but not for the long term. Without that, we might as well be Greece or Portugal, except with worse weather and not even tourist goods being produced.
So what happens then? Canada has to return to the US? A US that has moved on, and is lowkey
actually hostile to us?
That just leaves us with the bottom line. Id flirt with Europe, maybe integration with them is a decent idea- lets ship them oil and open up our industries I guess? We could maybe make it work, at scale, under the
right circumstances.
but doing that- to
spite the US? At the
cost of the American relationship? When were already massively more integrated with them, when they are refining half our oil, when theyre our biggest trading partner, when the Euros are also superfluous on their own deals? bruh,
that is retarded.
