Public attitudes towards immigration are heavily influenced by the belief that most migration to the UK is 'illegal’
Polling on immigration typically focusses on attitudes towards the level of new arrivals. But polls rarely cover another possibility of public opinion – that not only do people want immigration highly curtailed, but that they might also want to see large-scale removals of migrants.
One person who holds such a desire is Rupert Lowe,
a view which brought him into conflict with Nigel Farage during his brief stint as a Reform UK MP, given the party leader
had told GB News that it is a political impossibility to deport hundreds of thousands of people.
However, a new YouGov poll testing attitudes to several immigration scenarios has found that almost half of Britons (45%) say they would support “admitting no more new migrants, and requiring large numbers of migrants who came to the UK in recent years to leave” – a figure which rises to 86% of Reform UK voters, but also encompasses sizeable minorities of Labour and Lib Dem voters (27% apiece).
On the face of it, this is an extraordinary finding, coming as it does at a time when immigration is a key focus of
government and
public attention. However, a more detailed examination of attitudes shows a nuanced picture, suggesting that much of this apparent hostility may stem from a simple misconception.
Are more migrants in the UK legally or illegally?
Key to understanding this finding is the belief among the public that immigration to the UK is primarily ‘illegal’ rather than ‘legal’. Our research shows that almost half of Britons (47%) think there are more migrants staying in the UK illegally rather than legally, including fully a third of the public (32%) who think the illegal figure is “much higher”.
Crucially, this view is held by 72% of those who want to see mass removals. However, these perceptions appear to be wide of the mark.
Estimates of the population of illegal migrants living in the UK
range from 120,000 to 1.3 million, with Reform UK’s Zia Yusuf
recently putting the figure at 1.2 million.
Regardless of which figure from this range is chosen, it does not come close to the number of migrants living in the UK legally, with 2021/2022 census data putting
the entire foreign-born population of the UK at 10.7 million.
Do those who say they want to see large numbers of migrants removed
If the British public dramatically overestimate the number of illegal migrants to the UK to the extent that they think that most migrants are here illegally, then the possibility arises that, in reality, those who support removals don’t want to see the bulk of migrants removed.
To check this possibility, we tested attitudes towards specific types of migrants among those who want to see large-scale removals.
Unsurprisingly, those who want to see mass deportations almost universally want to see removals of those who come to the UK to claim benefits (91%), small boat migrants (90%), and those coming without work visas to work in unskilled jobs (85%).
However, these numbers fall dramatically when it comes to other groups. A much-reduced 39% of deportation supporters say they want to see large-scale removals of asylum seekers who came to the UK via the correct legal process; 26% want to see workers with work visas coming to work in industries with skills shortages removed en masse; and at its lowest level 19-20% want to see migrants coming on work visas to work as doctors or nurses to be asked to leave.
If we recalculate those figures to show them as a proportion of the whole population, rather than just as a proportion of those who support deportations, we can see that the number of Britons who answered that they want deportations AND that this includes small boat asylum seekers stands at the equivalent of 38% of the general public.* Similarly high are the equivalent national figures for those coming to claim benefits (38%) and those coming without work visas to work in unskilled jobs (36%).
By contrast, that equivalent national figure falls to 16% for asylum seekers following the correct legal process, 11% for migrants coming to work in areas with skills shortages, and 8% for migrants working as doctors and nurses.
A separate question more broadly examining positivity towards different migrant groups finds similar results, with negativity among mass-deportation proponents falling from 93% for small boats migrants to 44% for migrants coming to the UK legally looking for work, and 26% for foreign students.
How far does desire to reduce immigration persist when faced with economic trade-offs?
Removing immigrants would not happen in a vacuum, with many foreigners
working in areas that the UK currently has difficulty filling vacancies for.
Our study posed trade-offs to the public, asking them to pick between reducing legal migration and its potential adverse consequences, or the more economically beneficial alternative, but at the cost of higher legal migration.
In each case, Britons tend to choose the economically beneficial trade off. Six in ten opt for getting enough workers in areas with skills shortages over reducing legal migration; 59% likewise prioritised attracting the “best and brightest” to the UK; 52% did so for “improving the UK economy”; and 41% preferred to increase the numbers of people in the UK paying tax (higher than the 30% taking the opposite view that reducing legal migration is the higher priority).
Additionally, 67% of Britons say ensuring the NHS is fully staffed, even if it means legal migration increases, is preferable to the opposite.
While not an economic trade off, the public are also more likely to prefer to meet Britain’s legal international humanitarian options, even at the cost of higher legal migration (44%), than to break those obligations in order to reduce inflows of migrants (32%).
Of these scenarios, only the NHS staffing issue proves compelling to those who initially say they want to see large numbers of migrants removed. In this case, 29% say they prioritise reducing legal migration to the UK if this means NHS services suffer staffing shortages, with 47% instead opting to preserve the health service.
Otherwise, this group are evenly split when the trade-offs are over wider skills shortages and attracting the best and brightest, and are more likely to favour lowering immigration even if the trade-offs were the economy getting worse or fewer people to pay tax in the UK. Most also prefer to break Britain’s legal international humanitarian obligations to reduce migrant numbers.
What do attitudes to migration look like when the distinction between legal and illegal migration is made?
Given there is such a widespread misconception that migration to the UK is primarily illegal, it is worth re-examining general attitudes towards immigration when making the distinction between the two ‘types’ of migrants.
The main YouGov immigration trackers ask A.
whether the level of immigration into Britain over the last ten years has been too high (the majority say it has); and B.
the level of immigration into Britain over the last ten years has been good or bad for the country (a plurality say it has been bad).
When we ask instead about “illegal immigration” and “legal immigration” separately, the response rates differ markedly between the two types. Fully 79% of Britons say there has been too much illegal migration to the UK, far higher than the 48% who say the level of legal migration has been too high – although this is still a significant level of scepticism, with only 29% saying the level of legal migration has been “about right” and just 8% considering it too low.
When it comes to whether types of migration have been good for the UK, it is unsurprising to again see the majority saying that illegal migration has been bad for the UK (66%). However, this becomes the minority view for legal migration; only 22% of Britons see this as having been bad for the UK, with the remainder split between considering it mostly good (36%) or being both good and bad for the country (33%).
We also went a step beyond our usual tracker questions, to look at the impact Britons think immigration has had on specific areas of daily life in the UK.
Across all ten areas we asked about, when it comes to illegal immigration there is a net negative response to each. However, the extent varies dramatically, with the response least negative for sport (-15) and food (-25) and most negative for crime (-69) and housing (-72).
When it comes to legal migrants, the story is more mixed. There is net positivity to the contributions made by legal migrants when it comes to sport (+15), food (+13) and the economy (+5). Even here, however, there is still particularly strong negativity towards legal migration when it comes to housing (-41).
A plurality of Britons are concerned that legal migrants do not share British values
In both the case of illegal and legal immigrants, there is a negative net view in terms of their impact on British culture (-50 for illegal migrants and -13 for legal migrants) and society (-54 for illegal migrants and -9 for legal migrants).
This seems to stem from a sense held by many that migrants do not share British values, and are not integrating into British society.
Almost seven in ten Britons (69%) feel that illegal migrants do not share the same values as British people, and the number who say the same of legal migrants (43%) notably outstrips the number who disagree (32%).
Likewise, almost three quarters (73%) think that illegal migrants are not successfully being integrated into British society, while the public are closely divided on whether the same is true of legal migrants – 43% think they are, 41% say they are not.
So while it is clear that legal migration dramatically outweighs illegal migration, that is not to say that if only the public could be made aware of this fact then immigration would disappear as an issue.
After all, Britons tend to think that legal immigration has been too high as well, and the concerns that many people have extend beyond the economic terms in which immigration is typically justified – anyone seeking to address the issue will need to engage with deeper anxieties about identity, integration, and the perceived erosion of shared national values.
* please note that this is not the same as saying national support for removal of small boat asylum seekers stands at 38%, as this follow-up question was only asked to those who support large-scale removals of migrants. Rather, what we are saying is that the number of deportations supporters who also support deporting members of this group specifically is equivalent in size to 38% of the whole public.
If the question had been asked to all respondents, rather than only those who say they supported large numbers of deportations, it is possible that some who otherwise oppose deportations in general may have made exceptions for specific groups.
