Brianna Wu / John Walker Flynt - "Biggest Victim of Gamergate," Failed Game Developer, Failed Congressional Candidate

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Congratulations! No one gives a fuck.

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Clash of the dipshits vol. 95

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Oh good metalworker and Secret Service team leader John to the rescue with the real facts.

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Dr. Merkwurdichliebe said:
John is actually getting called out on Twitter for his incompetence at basic statistics.

The correct answer is 28.9 percent.
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There's a bit of ambiguity in the statement. It varies whether it means whether one (or more) will die, or whether one and only exactly one will die. Since most people would assume that "or more" is implied, 28.9% is the correct number, but John is wrong in the wrong direction. I don't even know where he got that.

You don't even get that by just multiplying .028 by 12. I honestly have no idea what thought processes this man used to get that bizarre result.

(Also never mind John's mortality rate number is just wrong. It's much lower for the general population but may actually be higher for the group of 12 specific infected people.)
 
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AnOminous said:
There's a bit of ambiguity in the statement. It varies whether it means whether one (or more) will die, or whether one and only exactly one will die. Since most people would assume that "or more" is implied, 28.9% is the correct number, but John is wrong in the wrong direction. I don't even know where he got that.

You don't even get that by just multiplying .028 by 12. I honestly have no idea what thought processes this man used to get that bizarre result.

(Also never mind John's mortality rate number is just wrong. It's much lower for the general population but may actually be higher for the group of 12 specific infected people.)
Click to expand...

My first guess is that John stole his answer from someone else who did the math wrong. (It's also quite possible that John multiplied 12 by 2.8, somehow got the wrong answer -- or forgot the answer displayed -- and smugly posted it as yet another example of his intellectual superiority.)

The correct calculation (using the erroneous 2.8 percent death rate) is:

1 - (.972 ^12)

1 - .711

.289
 
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AnOminous said:
There's a bit of ambiguity in the statement. It varies whether it means whether one (or more) will die, or whether one and only exactly one will die. Since most people would assume that "or more" is implied, 28.9% is the correct number, but John is wrong in the wrong direction. I don't even know where he got that.

You don't even get that by just multiplying .028 by 12. I honestly have no idea what thought processes this man used to get that bizarre result.

(Also never mind John's mortality rate number is just wrong. It's much lower for the general population but may actually be higher for the group of 12 specific infected people.)
Click to expand...
It's suspiciously close to 13*0.028=0.364. I think he entered it wrong or miscounted, calculated the probability incorrectly, then confused that number with another common number (days in a year, obviously) since it's so close.
 
discombobulate said:
It's suspiciously close to 13*0.028=0.364. I think he entered it wrong or miscounted, calculated the probability incorrectly, then confused that number with another common number (days in a year, obviously) since it's so close.
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It's really hard to figure out exactly how John fucked up any given time, because he's so fractally stupid on every imaginable level. When you see the latest stupid thing he said, you think that's wrong. Then you think can he possibly mean that? Then you figure out the right answer, and wonder how the fuck did he get this particular stupid answer? What fucked up, ignorant reasoning could possibly have led to this?

The problem is no matter how stupid you try to think, whatever John did is almost invariably even stupider.
 
2.8*13(fat fingered)=36.4 and he probably fat fingered the 4 to a 5. Thus, 36.5%.
 
GenericReviewerDraco said:
Seems like they went full Blaire White with the trooning if true. That said something about them is suspicious if they can get actual VAs on their Youtube channel.
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I mean, her voice is a bit sketchy, but she looks natural in comparison with ok looking troons (like Blaire or Contra), I'm confused, maybe we've been gaslit.
 
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