If GTA6 wobbles, I believe that's the end of the AAA gaming bubble.
GTA6 will land strong, but I think the later launch GTA Online for GTA6 will be the actual miss, and will probably be the final nail in the coffin for trying to live service everything. Its got infeasible expectations across the board from both players and business, with the former expecting more content than the current GTA Online at launch, and the latter expecting it to be monetized aggressively enough to repay the bulk of the insane development costs. Its a recipe for disaster, and when that blows out, the entire live service space will be shattered with it.
If GTA6 can't guarantee a successful live service out the gates, nobody can, and investors will start to back out of insane live service projects in response. But that money fountain is one of the few ways left for these publishers to make their own financials work - They're so heavily stacked with debt from all their prior failures that its starting to become a serious problem. Losing a major avenue of 'easy' funding will hurt that a great deal. And from that point I'm in agreement with you, I think AAA will topple. They haven't found any new monetization path that works at this scale, and its not something they can reliably pull out of their ass. Not having any good games to try and experimentally monetize is gonna hurt them even more.
Honestly, Microsoft with gamepass is closest to success, and its still losing them a fortune. they'll probably hold out in the AAA space the longest, just because gamepass lets them blur successes and failures together into a more generic abstract, and consumers are actually willing to just rent access to games as a service. Much as I personally hate it, people are clearly ok with it at some price points. I just don't think they'd be ok with a price point high enough to actually generate enough revenue to matter.
Pretty soon they're going to run out of non-jeets to push out.
Nah, Microsoft is a big player in the acquisition space, they'll keep buying other companies so they can jeetify them too.