Link (Archive)
There’s lots of campaign remaining, yet I am seeing Axios report in which a senior House Democrat says, “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency.” So I’m here with my friends and Post colleagues Shadi Hamid and Perry Bacon to ask: Are these doom levels correct?
Alexandra Petri: Shadi, Perry, I want to ask you: What do you make of this feeling of resignation? On a scale from “1” (not resigned) to “Richard Nixon on Aug. 9, 1974,” would you describe yourself as resigned?
Shadi Hamid: I’m resigned. If Biden refuses to step aside, I just don’t see any plausible path to victory. And so, I’m preparing accordingly, steeling myself for a Trump presidency and trying to adapt mentally for the new reality.
I’m angry that it’s come to this. I feel betrayed and gaslighted by the Democratic Party. We were fed a fictional Joe Biden and, once we realized the truth, we were expected to just go along with it and not ask too many questions.
While I might be resigned, I’m not sure senior House Democrats should feel the same way. Unlike me, they still have the power to change the race before it’s too late. This would be the moment to *not* accept defeat.
Perry Bacon: Three. I think Biden can still win. Not because of him but because I hope/imagine/wishcast that on Oct. 16, or so, it clicks that Donald Trump could be president against and voters/civic society/the business community/everyone rises to stop that. Also, Biden is close in lots of states.
Alexandra: Perry, thanks for the specific numerical response! And I also love the specific October date! Oscar Wilde’s birthday! And Angela Lansbury’s! Shadi, you sound pretty disillusioned with Democrats’ handling of the Biden situation. What do you think now?
Shadi: If Democrats working for or on behalf of Biden really think, as they say, that Trump is an existential threat, then you’d think they’d try to win instead of being “resigned.” If a majority of congressional Democrats came out and called for Biden to step aside and said they would not support him, then that might actually make a difference.
To Perry’s point about the threat of Trump dawning on voters as we get closer to November, I’d question the whole premise — why do we assume that voters are going to be so frightened about a Trump presidency? If Democrats can’t be bothered to run a good candidate, why should the rest of us treat this as some existential battle between good and evil? As the Financial Times’s Edward Luce pithily put it: “Seems people prefer a probable loss to the risk of winning.”
If we think that Trump will end democracy as we know it, then we’d presumably run someone who can prosecute that case. Biden can’t make that case; it’s unclear he can make any case in a cogent enough manner to convince anyone who has real doubts.
I’d also note the profound enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats now. I watched Day 1 of the Republican National Convention with envy. They have a candidate and now a VP that they’re excited about. On the Democratic side, we’re all depressed about the future.
I’m thinking to myself: What would it feel like to be excited about our own candidate? I forgot how that feels.
Alexandra: Shadi, yeah, I do wonder for these senior folks, which is it? “A second Trump term will seriously undermine our democratic institutions” or “I don’t want to stick my neck out to preserve my chances for 2028 when I anticipate those institutions will be sufficiently intact for me to run”?
Perry: Most of my friends sound like Shadi. They are mad that party leaders are not pushing Biden out. I am less sure Biden will lose or another Democrat would win. Still, I wish Biden would stop acting like he alone is the presidency and read the room. He should step back without a fight. But I am not resigned.
I feel like a lot of people will fight really hard to stop Trump from winning when Election Day is in sight. I will not assume failure even if the Democratic candidate is a flawed one.
Shadi: I think part of the problem here is that senior Democrats may think they believe Trump will destroy democracy — even if they actually don’t. People are complicated, and they deceive themselves. This is why looking at “revealed preferences” can be helpful. Rhetoric is nice but you have to look at how people behave in real life.
I don’t think any of this is particularly conscious, but when Democrats don’t seem particularly exercised about a Trump presidency when they still have the power to avert it, perhaps they’re showing us what they really think.
Alexandra: Ooh, revealed preferences! When it comes to apocalyptic predictions vs. actual behavior, I always think back to the Millerites (I think it’s the Millerites) who thought the world was going to end on a specific date and acted accordingly, which then is mortifying if you’ve sold all your sheep to your neighbor anticipating that you will be too busy with the return of the Messiah to deal with your sheep only for the world to stubbornly keep going and you’re broke and sheepless.
I do think the question of, “What do people genuinely think are the stakes of the election, and given that, how should they behave,” is a fascinating one. There could be folks who feel the same sense of stakes and thus come to the opposite conclusion: Yes, this is existential and therefore it’s too risky to try to change candidates, even if the one we have is flawed!
Shadi: The issue is that Biden is not just a flawed candidate. Flawed candidates are fine. This is something well beyond that. It’s, to my knowledge, largely unprecedented to run someone who has so clearly declined mentally as a candidate in a major democracy, particularly in age of social media where it’s really hard to hide simple truths from voters. Democrats tried hiding these truths for months, if not years. They found out that there’s a limit, as there should be.
Perry: I am not defending Biden as a candidate. And I agree his staff has not been candid about his ability to do the job. I am also disappointed the Democratic Party appears to be making up a pretext to rush to nominate him before the convention.
Still, my other point of non-despair is the strength of the Democratic bench: Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Andy Beshear, etc. If Biden can stop thinking the campaign is America and the world celebrating his greatness and brilliance, a debate between the side of J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis vs. Whitmer, Josh Shapiro and Harris is winnable.
Biden is pushing some policy ideas. I don’t think policy alone wins elections. But if he is open to making the race about anything beyond who knows the most world leaders, he’s got a shot.
Shadi: It’s worth noting that Biden isn’t even that good on foreign policy, and that’s without bringing up what I consider to be his disastrous Gaza policy. As Barack Obama’s former secretary of defense Bob Gates once put it: “I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
Alexandra: Stepping back from the forecasts for a second, from the perspective of Democrats’ despair, how does J.D. Vance land? Cause for more despair or less despair?
Perry: Electorally, I like the Vance pick (as someone who wants Trump to lose), as I’m not sure he adds any voters to Trump’s tally. Not even the “Oh, interesting” that Sarah Palin created. He is blah. In terms of policy, Vance is very MAGA. So it is scary to think he might be the front-runner in 2028 if Trump wins and keeps allowing elections after that.
So Vance is a mixed bag on my despair measure.
Alexandra: I will take any mixed bag on the despair measure at this point!
Shadi: J.D. Vance is the kind of pick that excites actual Republicans. He’s smart and actually knows how to make arguments and make them well. (He was a writer and author, after all
.)
The big advantage is that it allows the GOP to lean into the kind of economic populism that even Democrats aren’t comfortable displaying.
If you looked at the Teamsters speech on Day 1 of the RNC, you’re going to see more of that, and that can appeal and probably will to working-class voters of color. His culture warrior anti-wokeness persona might also be a selling point with these voters, who tend to be more culturally conservative than overly educated White liberals. That Teamsters speech made me a bit sad. He should have been speaking at the Democratic convention. It *sounded* like something that should have been at the DNC.
Alexandra: Yeah, I agree! It was fascinating to hear at an RNC! I guess a last question: Any hopeful thoughts?! From the RNC or otherwise? Trying to get some more mixed despair bags for us to end on! (A term I am now embracing and hope will become a Prompt 2024 staple.)
Shadi: Yes, my hopeful thought, as I wrote in my columntoday, is that Trump’s near-death experience might actually have a chastening effect on him. I know, it’s still quite unlikely, but at least it’s theoretically possible.
My other hopeful thought is that, thank the Lord, American institutions are strong and resilient and I believe they can withstand whatever Trump throws at them. Trump is term limited. There’s no plausible scenario short of a constitutional amendment in which he could run for a third term, and there’s no way to push an amendment through without Democratic support.
Perry: There is lots of leaking/complaining, both on Capitol Hill and even within the White House and the Biden campaign. These people are finally done citing polls saying all leaders around the world are unpopular, saying a 38 percent approval is fine and all the other nonsense excuses I have heard. The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one.
And beyond people whose last name is Biden, there is finally urgency and focus. They can stop the FDR and LBJ comparisons and aim for keeping Trump out of the office — the actual reason people voted for him in the first place.
The days of bragging about microchip legislation may be over. Finally.
Alexandra: LOL. Amen to that. And with that, happy Despair Prompt 2024 to all!
Are Democrats doomed?
The election is 111 days away, I think! Monday was Day 1 of the Republican National Convention, themed “Make America Wealthy Once Again.” Yesterday was “Make America Safe Once Again” night.There’s lots of campaign remaining, yet I am seeing Axios report in which a senior House Democrat says, “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency.” So I’m here with my friends and Post colleagues Shadi Hamid and Perry Bacon to ask: Are these doom levels correct?
Alexandra Petri: Shadi, Perry, I want to ask you: What do you make of this feeling of resignation? On a scale from “1” (not resigned) to “Richard Nixon on Aug. 9, 1974,” would you describe yourself as resigned?
Shadi Hamid: I’m resigned. If Biden refuses to step aside, I just don’t see any plausible path to victory. And so, I’m preparing accordingly, steeling myself for a Trump presidency and trying to adapt mentally for the new reality.
I’m angry that it’s come to this. I feel betrayed and gaslighted by the Democratic Party. We were fed a fictional Joe Biden and, once we realized the truth, we were expected to just go along with it and not ask too many questions.
While I might be resigned, I’m not sure senior House Democrats should feel the same way. Unlike me, they still have the power to change the race before it’s too late. This would be the moment to *not* accept defeat.
Perry Bacon: Three. I think Biden can still win. Not because of him but because I hope/imagine/wishcast that on Oct. 16, or so, it clicks that Donald Trump could be president against and voters/civic society/the business community/everyone rises to stop that. Also, Biden is close in lots of states.
Alexandra: Perry, thanks for the specific numerical response! And I also love the specific October date! Oscar Wilde’s birthday! And Angela Lansbury’s! Shadi, you sound pretty disillusioned with Democrats’ handling of the Biden situation. What do you think now?
Shadi: If Democrats working for or on behalf of Biden really think, as they say, that Trump is an existential threat, then you’d think they’d try to win instead of being “resigned.” If a majority of congressional Democrats came out and called for Biden to step aside and said they would not support him, then that might actually make a difference.
To Perry’s point about the threat of Trump dawning on voters as we get closer to November, I’d question the whole premise — why do we assume that voters are going to be so frightened about a Trump presidency? If Democrats can’t be bothered to run a good candidate, why should the rest of us treat this as some existential battle between good and evil? As the Financial Times’s Edward Luce pithily put it: “Seems people prefer a probable loss to the risk of winning.”
If we think that Trump will end democracy as we know it, then we’d presumably run someone who can prosecute that case. Biden can’t make that case; it’s unclear he can make any case in a cogent enough manner to convince anyone who has real doubts.
I’d also note the profound enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats now. I watched Day 1 of the Republican National Convention with envy. They have a candidate and now a VP that they’re excited about. On the Democratic side, we’re all depressed about the future.
I’m thinking to myself: What would it feel like to be excited about our own candidate? I forgot how that feels.
Alexandra: Shadi, yeah, I do wonder for these senior folks, which is it? “A second Trump term will seriously undermine our democratic institutions” or “I don’t want to stick my neck out to preserve my chances for 2028 when I anticipate those institutions will be sufficiently intact for me to run”?
Perry: Most of my friends sound like Shadi. They are mad that party leaders are not pushing Biden out. I am less sure Biden will lose or another Democrat would win. Still, I wish Biden would stop acting like he alone is the presidency and read the room. He should step back without a fight. But I am not resigned.
I feel like a lot of people will fight really hard to stop Trump from winning when Election Day is in sight. I will not assume failure even if the Democratic candidate is a flawed one.
Shadi: I think part of the problem here is that senior Democrats may think they believe Trump will destroy democracy — even if they actually don’t. People are complicated, and they deceive themselves. This is why looking at “revealed preferences” can be helpful. Rhetoric is nice but you have to look at how people behave in real life.
I don’t think any of this is particularly conscious, but when Democrats don’t seem particularly exercised about a Trump presidency when they still have the power to avert it, perhaps they’re showing us what they really think.
Alexandra: Ooh, revealed preferences! When it comes to apocalyptic predictions vs. actual behavior, I always think back to the Millerites (I think it’s the Millerites) who thought the world was going to end on a specific date and acted accordingly, which then is mortifying if you’ve sold all your sheep to your neighbor anticipating that you will be too busy with the return of the Messiah to deal with your sheep only for the world to stubbornly keep going and you’re broke and sheepless.
I do think the question of, “What do people genuinely think are the stakes of the election, and given that, how should they behave,” is a fascinating one. There could be folks who feel the same sense of stakes and thus come to the opposite conclusion: Yes, this is existential and therefore it’s too risky to try to change candidates, even if the one we have is flawed!
Shadi: The issue is that Biden is not just a flawed candidate. Flawed candidates are fine. This is something well beyond that. It’s, to my knowledge, largely unprecedented to run someone who has so clearly declined mentally as a candidate in a major democracy, particularly in age of social media where it’s really hard to hide simple truths from voters. Democrats tried hiding these truths for months, if not years. They found out that there’s a limit, as there should be.
Perry: I am not defending Biden as a candidate. And I agree his staff has not been candid about his ability to do the job. I am also disappointed the Democratic Party appears to be making up a pretext to rush to nominate him before the convention.
Still, my other point of non-despair is the strength of the Democratic bench: Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris, Andy Beshear, etc. If Biden can stop thinking the campaign is America and the world celebrating his greatness and brilliance, a debate between the side of J.D. Vance and Ron DeSantis vs. Whitmer, Josh Shapiro and Harris is winnable.
Biden is pushing some policy ideas. I don’t think policy alone wins elections. But if he is open to making the race about anything beyond who knows the most world leaders, he’s got a shot.
Shadi: It’s worth noting that Biden isn’t even that good on foreign policy, and that’s without bringing up what I consider to be his disastrous Gaza policy. As Barack Obama’s former secretary of defense Bob Gates once put it: “I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
Alexandra: Stepping back from the forecasts for a second, from the perspective of Democrats’ despair, how does J.D. Vance land? Cause for more despair or less despair?
Perry: Electorally, I like the Vance pick (as someone who wants Trump to lose), as I’m not sure he adds any voters to Trump’s tally. Not even the “Oh, interesting” that Sarah Palin created. He is blah. In terms of policy, Vance is very MAGA. So it is scary to think he might be the front-runner in 2028 if Trump wins and keeps allowing elections after that.
So Vance is a mixed bag on my despair measure.
Alexandra: I will take any mixed bag on the despair measure at this point!
Shadi: J.D. Vance is the kind of pick that excites actual Republicans. He’s smart and actually knows how to make arguments and make them well. (He was a writer and author, after all
.)The big advantage is that it allows the GOP to lean into the kind of economic populism that even Democrats aren’t comfortable displaying.
If you looked at the Teamsters speech on Day 1 of the RNC, you’re going to see more of that, and that can appeal and probably will to working-class voters of color. His culture warrior anti-wokeness persona might also be a selling point with these voters, who tend to be more culturally conservative than overly educated White liberals. That Teamsters speech made me a bit sad. He should have been speaking at the Democratic convention. It *sounded* like something that should have been at the DNC.
Alexandra: Yeah, I agree! It was fascinating to hear at an RNC! I guess a last question: Any hopeful thoughts?! From the RNC or otherwise? Trying to get some more mixed despair bags for us to end on! (A term I am now embracing and hope will become a Prompt 2024 staple.)
Shadi: Yes, my hopeful thought, as I wrote in my columntoday, is that Trump’s near-death experience might actually have a chastening effect on him. I know, it’s still quite unlikely, but at least it’s theoretically possible.
My other hopeful thought is that, thank the Lord, American institutions are strong and resilient and I believe they can withstand whatever Trump throws at them. Trump is term limited. There’s no plausible scenario short of a constitutional amendment in which he could run for a third term, and there’s no way to push an amendment through without Democratic support.
Perry: There is lots of leaking/complaining, both on Capitol Hill and even within the White House and the Biden campaign. These people are finally done citing polls saying all leaders around the world are unpopular, saying a 38 percent approval is fine and all the other nonsense excuses I have heard. The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one.
And beyond people whose last name is Biden, there is finally urgency and focus. They can stop the FDR and LBJ comparisons and aim for keeping Trump out of the office — the actual reason people voted for him in the first place.
The days of bragging about microchip legislation may be over. Finally.
Alexandra: LOL. Amen to that. And with that, happy Despair Prompt 2024 to all!
