Abortion on the Ballot
We explain the 10 measures that would let voters decide abortion policy in their states.
Sept. 9, 2024, 6:37 a.m. ETBy Kate Zernike
If there’s one thing that captures how the abortion debate has changed in the last two years, it’s ballot initiatives. In the five decades that Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, almost every abortion question on state ballots was put there by anti-abortion groups. Now the reverse is true. In the last two years, abortion rights activists won seven out of seven ballot initiatives. So this fall, they’re swinging big, asking voters in 10 states to establish a constitutional right to abortion.
A few of these new measures — in Florida, Missouri and South Dakota — would do something no ballot question has done so far: restore access to abortion where it had been almost entirely banned. Previous ballot initiatives have merely protected access in states where it already existed.
And Democrats have another motivation for the initiatives: to drive turnout for Kamala Harris and the party’s congressional candidates, especially in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada.
Several measures will be tricky to pass. The one in Florida, for instance, requires a 60 percent majority. (The highest margin the abortion rights side has won in a red state is just below that.) In today’s newsletter, I’ll guide you through the ballot questions that would let voters decide abortion policy in their states.
Red-state abortions
Most of the ballot measures would amend a state constitution to re-establish the right the Supreme Court established in Roe v. Wade: access to abortion until viability, when the fetus can survive outside the uterus. That’s around 24 weeks of pregnancy. After that, the state could limit or ban abortion, except if a medical provider says it was necessary to protect the mother.The stakes are highest in the states that restricted abortion after the court overturned Roe, and where Republican-controlled legislatures protect anti-abortion policies.
- A measure in Missouri would reverse a ban, but a legal challenge may strip it from the ballot this week.
- Florida bans abortion after six weeks of pregnancy, which is about two weeks after a woman misses her period. At that point, many women don’t yet know they are pregnant. The amendment would restore access for the roughly four million women of reproductive age in the state — and for millions more who once traveled there for abortions from nearby states that ban them.
- Anti-abortion groups are sponsoring just one measure, in Nebraska. It would ban abortion in the second and third trimester, enshrining a state law that prohibits abortion after 12 weeks. So why offer the constitutional amendment? Because abortion-rights groups have a competing question that would prevent the state from banning abortion before the fetus becomes viable. If both amendments pass, the one with more votes takes effect.
Driving Democratic turnout
In some places, the ballot amendment won’t really change abortion policy — it just affirms state law. But it could draw more voters to the polls.- In Montana, abortion is already legal until a fetus’s viability (or roughly 24 weeks of pregnancy), thanks to a 1999 state Supreme Court decision. But sponsors of this year’s amendment say they need to enshrine that right in the Constitution so lawmakers or justices can’t undo it. And if it drives turnout to re-elect Jon Tester, a vulnerable Senate incumbent, then all the better for them.
- Democrats have similar ideas about Arizona and Nevada. These are battlegrounds not only in the presidential race but also in the party’s bid to hold its Senate majority. In Arizona, the amendment would overturn a ban on abortion after 15 weeks. But Nevada already allows abortion until viability, so the immediate objective there seems more purely political.
- The same is true in Maryland, where Democrats hope a ballot measure helps Angela Alsobrooks beat Larry Hogan, a Republican former governor, in this year’s Senate race.
Political compromises
The biggest prize liberals see is in blue New York, home to seven competitive House races, five in districts held by Republicans. Abortion is already legal until viability, but a ballot initiative there would go further, establishing an “Equal Protection of Law Amendment” that would bar discrimination based on sex. It doesn’t specifically mention abortion, and Republicans believe its reference to “gender identity” will alienate voters.Activists went with a narrower option in South Dakota, which would allow abortion restrictions in the second trimester — which begins at 13 weeks, well before viability — betting that would pass in a conservative state. Planned Parenthood declined to support it, saying it didn’t go far enough.
For abortion rights groups, the ballot strategy may be near its end. Only 17 states allow citizens to put amendments in front of voters. If the groups succeed in November, there will be only three states among those — Arkansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma — that ban abortion.
