- Joined
- Feb 3, 2021
Since the attempted assassination of Trump by that shitbird in PA has basically won Trump the Presidential seat, I think it's time we discuss the REAL battleground of this election: The U.S. Congress.
I'll start with Pennsylvania, ignoring the safe seats and focusing on the races that are competitive.
PA right now has 17 districts in the House of Representatives, of which 9 are held by Democrats, and 8 are held by Republicans. Of these 17, 6 are considered "Safely Democratic", and 8 are considered "Safely or Strongly Republican". I'll discuss the 3 seats that are considered "Toss-ups", all of which are held by Democrats.
PA District 7
The incumbent is Susan Wild, a Democrat who has served the district since 2018.
PA District 7 covers the area around Allentown, a post-industrial area in Eastern PA on the border with New Jersey, north of Philly.
Allentown itself is pretty solidly Democratic, but the surrounding areas are very much strongly conservative former coal mining territory. The Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index) for this district is R+2, which means the Republcians have an edge here. Wilds survived the redistricting of the 17th (before it was the 15th, which was much more Democratic) in 2020, though she beat her Republican challenger by only 51.9% to 48.1%.
Wild herself is pretty leftist; she's pro-illegal immigration, voting against a bill that would disallow illegal immigrants from voting in Washington D.C., and also voted against a bill that would allow victims of illegal immigrant criminals to report their victimizers to the Department of Homeland Security. She also voted against ending the COVID emergency in 2023, and voted for the impeachment of Trump in 2019, and also voted yes on a bill to ban "assault weapons" in 2022. She has voted in line with Biden 100% of the time since he became President, and 100% in line with Nancy Pelosi when she was Speaker.
Her opponent is Ryan Mckenzie, a Republican member of the PA House of Representatives since 2012.
I haven't been able to learn much about him besides his being a career politician, but his campaign sites lists his stances here. In short, pretty typical Republican stances - anti-illegal immigration, cutting taxes, pro-law & order, anti-drug, pro-reshoring.
I think there's a decent chance this seat will flip Republican (Cook speculates a toss-up). Mackenzie has to focus on emphasizing Wild's strongly leftist voting habits, and if he's able to use Trump's momentum from the assassination attempt (which happened in PA, by the way) then he could use her vote to impeach Trump against her.
PA District 8
The incumbent is Matt Cartwright, a Democrat who has served the district since 2018.
The 8th district covers the northeastern corner of PA, covering the cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and the surrounding areas to the NY and NJ borders.
The cities are Democratic strongholds, but the rest of it is rural farm country in the Poconos. Unlike Susan Wild, he survived the redistricting of his district in 2020 by a pretty significant number (8%), despite it having become more competitive. The Cook PVI is R+4, which is even stronger than the 7th district.
Much like Wild, Cartwright has voted with Biden 100% of the time. That said, he is less supportive of illegal immigrants, as he was just one of three Dems who voted with the Republicans for a bill that would cut federal grants from sanctuary cities, and also voted in May for a Republican-sponsored bill that would have excluded noncitizens from population numbers used to determine the number of U.S. Representatives a state would have. However, he also voted to protect "DREAMERS", and criticized Trump's executive orders on the border. Aside from that, he's pretty solidly liberal, having co-sponsored several gun control bills, and he also voted against ending the COVID emergency in 2023.
His opponent is Rob Bresnahan Jr., who owns a electrical contractor in the area that is apparently a union shop, which is a big deal in PA.
His website doesn't list his political positions, but his campaign's Faceberg page is full of anti-illegal immigration and pro-Trump stuff.
I'm not so sure about this race, but the Democrats list Cartwright as one of their most vulnerable candidates under their Frontlines program and are allocating extra money to his campaign.
PA District 17
The incumbent is Chris Deluzio, a Democrat who has served the district since 2022.
The 17th district covers northern Allegheny County and all of Beaver County, ergo the northern half of the city of Pittsburgh and the suburbs in Beaver.
Pittsburgh itself is a liberal bughive, and one of the few cities where open Democratic Socialists are making strides. Most of the areas outside of Pittsburgh are either farmland, or run-down post-industrial towns where despite the unions still being influential, many of the folks are rather pro-Trump. The district itself has a Cook PVI of EVEN.
Deluzio hasn't been in office very long, but in his short tenure he has focused on issues that affect his constituents, such as introducing a bipartisan rail safety bill in the wake of the East Palestine disaster (East Palestine is only a short drive from Beaver County), and he voted for banning TikTok. However, Deluzio was also recorded in 2020 (before he ran for office) as saying, “Day-job work right now is very focused on election protection, and that’s, broadly speaking, making sure this maniac in the White House and his, you know, horde of budding blood-and-soil fascists don’t suppress the vote. And that is basically keeping me and everyone else who’s doing that work very busy, in Pennsylvania and everywhere else.” So yeah, he's very much hostile to his Republican constituents and Trump himself.
Deluzio is up against Rob Mercuri, a retired U.S. Army Captain who served as a VP at PNC Bank before getting elected in the PA House of Representatives.
Mercuri's campaign focuses on reducing inflation and getting cost of living under control, and accelerating the construction of natural-gas power plants (which given his district has a large oil and gas sector, makes sense).
This is going to be a tough race for the Republicans to win, chiefly because Deluzio has the incumbent advantage and is massively outspending Mercuri on outreach. Mercuri needs to make himself known, and he probably won't be able to rely on Trump because Biden won his district in 2020 and it's not a sure thing Trump will win it this year (despite yesterday's shooting having occurred just outside of the district in Butler).
U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania
The biggest and toughest fight will be the one to potentially unseat Bob Casey Jr., a Democrat who has been Senator for PA since 2007.
Bob Casey Jr. is part of a PA political dynasty, as his father Bob Casey Sr. served as Pennsylvania's governor between 1987 and 1995. Casey Jr. earned his seat by beating Rick Santorum, who was so unpopular he lost by over 18% (which is incredibly rare for a sitting Senator). Since then, Bob Casey Jr. has tried to align himself as a "socially conservative, fiscally liberal" Democrat, which has largely kept him safe from challengers thus far. His voting record reflects this, as he voted with Republicans against a ban on fracking (since PA is a major oil and gas producer), and supported Trump's tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. That said, while he was once pro-life and opposed stem cell research, as of 2012 he is strongly pro-abortion. He also used to be pro-gun, but ever since Sandy Hook he has become a major gun control nut, and has supported basically every bill that has entered the Senate to ban the sale of handguns and "assault weapons". Casey voted for the EARNIT Act (which would have truncated Section 230, which allows websites like Kiwi Farms to operate), and in 2011 was one of the Senators who sponsored the PIPA bill that would have given the government overwhelming power to crack down on pirates on the internet; some of you may remember when many websites went offline in 2012 to protest this bill (see below).
Yes, this was a protest against Bob Casey Jr., along with 41 other Senators, and his record on online privacy has not improved.
The guy running against him is Dave McCormick, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds in the world.
McCormick has a couple of things going against him; for one, he's the one who lost to Dr. Oz in the 2022 Senate primary, who ended up himself losing against "Grug" Fetterman. Second, while he may originally be from PA, he's ultimately seen as a carpetbagger since he spent his whole career in the NYC area, and only moved back in 2022 to run for office on Trump's behalf.
On the other hand, McCormick was seated near Trump when the sperg took at a shot at him yesterday.
If McCormick can harness Trump's momentum from this assassination attempt, it may be enough to get him to gain an edge over Bob Casey Jr.
Alright, lecture over. That's my take on PA.
Please discuss your state's congressional races and what you think the odds are. Yes, I hate the critters in Congress as well regardless of party, but the only way anything's going to get done is to get the party that vaguely represents what I believe in, and get the party that most definitely doesn't out.
INB4 "doesn't matter, Dems are going to cheat anyway". Listen here doomer, the only way to counteract this cheating is to get out and vote. If you don't vote you have no right to complain when shit goes sideways.
I'll start with Pennsylvania, ignoring the safe seats and focusing on the races that are competitive.
PA right now has 17 districts in the House of Representatives, of which 9 are held by Democrats, and 8 are held by Republicans. Of these 17, 6 are considered "Safely Democratic", and 8 are considered "Safely or Strongly Republican". I'll discuss the 3 seats that are considered "Toss-ups", all of which are held by Democrats.
PA District 7
The incumbent is Susan Wild, a Democrat who has served the district since 2018.
PA District 7 covers the area around Allentown, a post-industrial area in Eastern PA on the border with New Jersey, north of Philly.
Allentown itself is pretty solidly Democratic, but the surrounding areas are very much strongly conservative former coal mining territory. The Cook PVI (Partisan Voting Index) for this district is R+2, which means the Republcians have an edge here. Wilds survived the redistricting of the 17th (before it was the 15th, which was much more Democratic) in 2020, though she beat her Republican challenger by only 51.9% to 48.1%.
Wild herself is pretty leftist; she's pro-illegal immigration, voting against a bill that would disallow illegal immigrants from voting in Washington D.C., and also voted against a bill that would allow victims of illegal immigrant criminals to report their victimizers to the Department of Homeland Security. She also voted against ending the COVID emergency in 2023, and voted for the impeachment of Trump in 2019, and also voted yes on a bill to ban "assault weapons" in 2022. She has voted in line with Biden 100% of the time since he became President, and 100% in line with Nancy Pelosi when she was Speaker.
Her opponent is Ryan Mckenzie, a Republican member of the PA House of Representatives since 2012.
I haven't been able to learn much about him besides his being a career politician, but his campaign sites lists his stances here. In short, pretty typical Republican stances - anti-illegal immigration, cutting taxes, pro-law & order, anti-drug, pro-reshoring.
I think there's a decent chance this seat will flip Republican (Cook speculates a toss-up). Mackenzie has to focus on emphasizing Wild's strongly leftist voting habits, and if he's able to use Trump's momentum from the assassination attempt (which happened in PA, by the way) then he could use her vote to impeach Trump against her.
PA District 8
The incumbent is Matt Cartwright, a Democrat who has served the district since 2018.
The 8th district covers the northeastern corner of PA, covering the cities of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and the surrounding areas to the NY and NJ borders.
The cities are Democratic strongholds, but the rest of it is rural farm country in the Poconos. Unlike Susan Wild, he survived the redistricting of his district in 2020 by a pretty significant number (8%), despite it having become more competitive. The Cook PVI is R+4, which is even stronger than the 7th district.
Much like Wild, Cartwright has voted with Biden 100% of the time. That said, he is less supportive of illegal immigrants, as he was just one of three Dems who voted with the Republicans for a bill that would cut federal grants from sanctuary cities, and also voted in May for a Republican-sponsored bill that would have excluded noncitizens from population numbers used to determine the number of U.S. Representatives a state would have. However, he also voted to protect "DREAMERS", and criticized Trump's executive orders on the border. Aside from that, he's pretty solidly liberal, having co-sponsored several gun control bills, and he also voted against ending the COVID emergency in 2023.
His opponent is Rob Bresnahan Jr., who owns a electrical contractor in the area that is apparently a union shop, which is a big deal in PA.
His website doesn't list his political positions, but his campaign's Faceberg page is full of anti-illegal immigration and pro-Trump stuff.
I'm not so sure about this race, but the Democrats list Cartwright as one of their most vulnerable candidates under their Frontlines program and are allocating extra money to his campaign.
PA District 17
The incumbent is Chris Deluzio, a Democrat who has served the district since 2022.
The 17th district covers northern Allegheny County and all of Beaver County, ergo the northern half of the city of Pittsburgh and the suburbs in Beaver.
Pittsburgh itself is a liberal bughive, and one of the few cities where open Democratic Socialists are making strides. Most of the areas outside of Pittsburgh are either farmland, or run-down post-industrial towns where despite the unions still being influential, many of the folks are rather pro-Trump. The district itself has a Cook PVI of EVEN.
Deluzio hasn't been in office very long, but in his short tenure he has focused on issues that affect his constituents, such as introducing a bipartisan rail safety bill in the wake of the East Palestine disaster (East Palestine is only a short drive from Beaver County), and he voted for banning TikTok. However, Deluzio was also recorded in 2020 (before he ran for office) as saying, “Day-job work right now is very focused on election protection, and that’s, broadly speaking, making sure this maniac in the White House and his, you know, horde of budding blood-and-soil fascists don’t suppress the vote. And that is basically keeping me and everyone else who’s doing that work very busy, in Pennsylvania and everywhere else.” So yeah, he's very much hostile to his Republican constituents and Trump himself.
Deluzio is up against Rob Mercuri, a retired U.S. Army Captain who served as a VP at PNC Bank before getting elected in the PA House of Representatives.
Mercuri's campaign focuses on reducing inflation and getting cost of living under control, and accelerating the construction of natural-gas power plants (which given his district has a large oil and gas sector, makes sense).
This is going to be a tough race for the Republicans to win, chiefly because Deluzio has the incumbent advantage and is massively outspending Mercuri on outreach. Mercuri needs to make himself known, and he probably won't be able to rely on Trump because Biden won his district in 2020 and it's not a sure thing Trump will win it this year (despite yesterday's shooting having occurred just outside of the district in Butler).
U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania
The biggest and toughest fight will be the one to potentially unseat Bob Casey Jr., a Democrat who has been Senator for PA since 2007.
Bob Casey Jr. is part of a PA political dynasty, as his father Bob Casey Sr. served as Pennsylvania's governor between 1987 and 1995. Casey Jr. earned his seat by beating Rick Santorum, who was so unpopular he lost by over 18% (which is incredibly rare for a sitting Senator). Since then, Bob Casey Jr. has tried to align himself as a "socially conservative, fiscally liberal" Democrat, which has largely kept him safe from challengers thus far. His voting record reflects this, as he voted with Republicans against a ban on fracking (since PA is a major oil and gas producer), and supported Trump's tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. That said, while he was once pro-life and opposed stem cell research, as of 2012 he is strongly pro-abortion. He also used to be pro-gun, but ever since Sandy Hook he has become a major gun control nut, and has supported basically every bill that has entered the Senate to ban the sale of handguns and "assault weapons". Casey voted for the EARNIT Act (which would have truncated Section 230, which allows websites like Kiwi Farms to operate), and in 2011 was one of the Senators who sponsored the PIPA bill that would have given the government overwhelming power to crack down on pirates on the internet; some of you may remember when many websites went offline in 2012 to protest this bill (see below).
Yes, this was a protest against Bob Casey Jr., along with 41 other Senators, and his record on online privacy has not improved.
The guy running against him is Dave McCormick, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, one of the biggest hedge funds in the world.
McCormick has a couple of things going against him; for one, he's the one who lost to Dr. Oz in the 2022 Senate primary, who ended up himself losing against "Grug" Fetterman. Second, while he may originally be from PA, he's ultimately seen as a carpetbagger since he spent his whole career in the NYC area, and only moved back in 2022 to run for office on Trump's behalf.
On the other hand, McCormick was seated near Trump when the sperg took at a shot at him yesterday.
If McCormick can harness Trump's momentum from this assassination attempt, it may be enough to get him to gain an edge over Bob Casey Jr.
Alright, lecture over. That's my take on PA.
Please discuss your state's congressional races and what you think the odds are. Yes, I hate the critters in Congress as well regardless of party, but the only way anything's going to get done is to get the party that vaguely represents what I believe in, and get the party that most definitely doesn't out.
INB4 "doesn't matter, Dems are going to cheat anyway". Listen here doomer, the only way to counteract this cheating is to get out and vote. If you don't vote you have no right to complain when shit goes sideways.
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