2024 Economic Collapse

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Is it Joever?

  • It's Joever

    Votes: 87 16.1%

  • We're just getting joeing

    Votes: 254 46.9%

  • Kill yourself furfag

    Votes: 201 37.1%
  • Total voters
    542
Your Girlfriend's Dad said:
It's not 50/50 that you're right or wrong. The position in which I benefit on the stock market exists if the market goes back up after a crash. It has always done such, even after the great depression.

Presuming that past performance has a correlation greater than zero with future performance, the odds tell me that I win in an index fund over time, regardless of a crash. If the dollar ceases to exist, none of my bets matter whatsoever.

It has nothing, whatsoever, to do with fight or fight. If you invest emotionally and not mathematically, you do yourself no favors.
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Don't bother explaining this to him, he seems unable to understand the fact that not everyone feels a crippling urge to immediately sell off everything and go hide in a bunker the moment a number that is green 80% of the time turns red for a while.
 
Your Girlfriend's Dad said:
It's not 50/50 that you're right or wrong. The position in which I benefit on the stock market exists if the market goes back up after a crash. It has always done such, even after the great depression.

Presuming that past performance has a correlation greater than zero with future performance, the odds tell me that I win in an index fund over time, regardless of a crash. If the dollar ceases to exist, none of my bets matter whatsoever.

It has nothing, whatsoever, to do with fight or fight. If you invest emotionally and not mathematically, you do yourself no favors.
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Since you love math tell me your chances of not hitting the 6th cylinder on Russian roulette when your opponent dry fires? More accurately, this is a Monty Hall problem of you opening 2 boobytrapped doors while Wall Street investment bankers sneak out the third with your potential capital investments. You say this is a game of math but ignore you only have 1% gain after the worst collapse in a decade. Sure you have a chance of profiting off of doing nothing, but you have an even higher chance cashing out at this current point on the mountain to which the avalanche is throwing you down. How soon do you expect markets to normalize without a rate cut?

The bottom line is you are more certain to receive what you pull out now than what you could in a month.
 
村里最小的阴茎 said:
The bottom line is you are more certain to receive what you pull out now than what you could in a month.
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So you're not gonna pull out in a month. Waiting is an extremely safe option.
Keep in mind HHH was talking about large index funds, FTSE All World, that kind of shit. You don't buy shares like this expecting to cash out in a month, you'd have to be fucking retarded to do that. Just wait a year.
 
I’m just going to reiterate what I said earlier: the market is no longer a niche thing. Everyone is invested. It’s effectively nationalized. As long as we as a society have resources to do so, we will bail it out. There is no point in pulling your money out because it just means that your money will be invisibly taxed (via inflation) to be funneled back into the market.

If this really makes you fly into a tard rage, go buy precious metals or something. There’s no point getting angry about the stonks.
 
村里最小的阴茎 said:
Since you love math tell me your chances of not hitting the 6th cylinder on Russian roulette when your opponent dry fires? More accurately, this is a Monty Hall problem of you opening 2 boobytrapped doors while Wall Street investment bankers sneak out the third with your potential capital investments. You say this is a game of math but ignore you only have 1% gain after the worst collapse in a decade. Sure you have a chance of profiting off of doing nothing, but you have an even higher chance cashing out at this current point on the mountain to which the avalanche is throwing you down. How soon do you expect markets to normalize without a rate cut?

The bottom line is you are more certain to receive what you pull out now than what you could in a month.
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My argument is this: If the market fails completely, whatever you pull out is fucking useless.

If the market crashes and carries on, holding your position and buying more when you're down is mathematically the best position.

There's no analogy to Russian Roulette. The bankers sneak out with your shares when you sell it to them at a loss.
 
TrainWreckWatcher said:
Even if it doesn't fully recover you can sell it off little by little as tax write offs for your losses.
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You can actually carry losses forward indefinitely and write off three thousand a year. If you're a real baller you'll sell everything right now, wait a month to get around the wash sale rule, then rebuy everything (since the market won't have changed obviously). Then you've done it. You've outsmarted the government.
 
Betonhaus said:
I bought some shares in EDDY, as I checked my account still had $3 to use. Turns out my investments lost 92% of their value so good thing i only put $40 in as i suck at this.
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That's actually impressive. You should do the exact opposite of what you've been doing and you'll be a big winner.
 
Your Girlfriend's Dad said:
That's actually impressive. You should do the exact opposite of what you've been doing and you'll be a big winner.
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I find me being consistently wrong is meta. The times I try to do the opposite is when the original thing turned out to be the right choice.
 
I am refraining from posting a generalized update until the markets close on Friday.

I find week by week trends far more informative and far more indicative of actual market states.
 
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