2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

first thread devolved into shitposting, here's a new one

 

[Null]

Oh man, the salt from you tomorrow is going to be so so sweet.

Lets jump the gun. Fuck off, you shitstain.

 

[Internet War Criminal]

Meanwhile people on 4chan were investigating the government for pedophilia.

Lol at thinking that there is no influential DC pedophile ring. The question is not whether it exists it's whether we stumbled upon it or not. Same with Hollywood.

 

[Internet War Criminal]

Lol when Trump wins tomorrow he won't even be able to chimp out about it

That's what you get techpriest

 

[JU 199]

The lizard's back over 70% on 538. They're giving her a 3.5ish point lead.

 

[piripiri]

Just listening to a bernie supporter she thinks maybe 10% go to trump but 30% will just abstain.

 

[Bork Laser]

Not gonna lie, I love how we're a site founded on being basically a bunch of assholes but there's still more intellectual discussion here than most normal sites out there.

People have said here that if you come to Kiwi Farms for your news your retarded...well I think I'd rather be that then whatever shit most news sites are pumping out.

 

[JU 199]

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

Wait did I land in an alternate universe where trump is actually doing well? Because I swore he wasn't doing so good, looks like i'll have to apologize to the die hard trump fans.

 

[Null]

The lizard's back over 70% on 538. They're giving her a 3.5ish point lead.

They're calculating in really dumb polls. One of the ones that put Florida into Lean Democrat don't factor in a ton of data and go over a week's time. A NH poll shows Clinton +11 (contrasting 4 others) and they throw that one in too.

 

[KatsuKitty]

Wait did I land in an alternate universe where trump is actually doing well? Because I swore he wasn't doing so good, looks like i'll have to apologize to the die hard trump fans.

The election has gone from a 1-in-6 chance for Clinton, to an absolute dead tie. Trump's chances of winning are now about as good as a coin flip. The election will be razor-close.

 

[piripiri]

Wait did I land in an alternate universe where trump is actually doing well? Because I swore he wasn't doing so good, looks like i'll have to apologize to the die hard trump fans.

Remember when he had no chance of winning the gop nomination and all those times it was the end of his campaign? That wasn't reality. That's just what they wanted to be true.

 

[Piga Dgrifm]

View attachment 150647

Brb, gonna go cry in a corner while thanking God this is (hopefully) coming to an end over the next couple days.

 

[Holdek]

The election has gone from a 1-in-6 chance for Clinton, to an absolute dead tie. Trump's chances of winning are now about as good as a coin flip. The election will be razor-close.

Well, no, it's gone from about a 1-in-6 chance for Trump to a 1-in-3 chance.

 

[piripiri]

Well, no, it's gone from about a 1-in-6 chance to a 1-in-3 chance.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/09/politics/donald-trump-data-pivit-2016-election/
Think Trump has a chance to snag GOP nomination? Analysis gives him just 1%

(tbf I don't think you are far off - just wanted to post the cnn1% chance article)

 

[HG 400]

#Michigan @trfgrp Poll (11/6): Trump 49% (+2) Clinton 47% Johnson 3% Stein 1%
gfhgfhgf FUCK WE CAN DO THIS

I told you Michigan would flip.

 

[ICametoLurk]

If Michigan flips this will be proof that Niggers hate water.

 

[JU 199]

They're calculating in really dumb polls. One of the ones that put Florida into Lean Democrat don't factor in a ton of data and go over a week's time. A NH poll shows Clinton +11 (contrasting 4 others) and they throw that one in too.

1) Those NH polls seem inflated but they come from a reputable source (Uni of New Hampshire: B+)
2) NH is a small state so any poll that gets over 600 is good
3) The model works by adjusting for house effect (depending on the pollsters bias) and then combines it with national polling. Because Clinton's lead has ticked up in the past few days it moved some states into her column, if only by a few percentage points. She got some more favorable state polling too.

Well, no, it's gone from about a 1-in-6 chance to a 1-in-3 chance.

tbf if we're going by 538 she's back over 70% again. Is closer to 1-in-4 now.

 

[XYZpdq]

I don't think anybody expected the rest of the GOP to sit around with their collective thumbs up their ass to the mind-boggling degree they did during Trump's rise.

 

[Holdek]

3) The model works by adjusting for house effect (depending on the pollsters bias) and then combines it with national polling. Because Clinton's lead has ticked up in the past few days it moved some states into her column, if only by a few percentage points. She got some more favorable state polling too.

They also weigh polls when calculating the average based on past accuracy and sample size after adjusting for house effects.

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

Brb, gonna go cry in a corner while thanking God this is (hopefully) coming to an end over the next couple days.

You fool, you can never get off this ride. This is just the beginning.