2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

first thread devolved into shitposting, here's a new one

 

[Pikimon]

Why do commentators cite the constant Trump signs? Why do Trump rallies in many, many states go well into 30,000 in attendance at least? Why are celebrities like Madonna and Miley Cyrus acting like sluts for Hillary when at the same time the left is supposed to be bitching about the Trump Tapes?

Because enthusiasm for a candidate doesn't translate into votes.

And on your point of the Trump tapes, the point wasn't that those women were acting like "sluts" the point was that Trump was admitting that he proudly partakes in sexually assaulting women, and now we have close to 11+ women coming out and saying that Trump sexually assaulted them.

 

[JU 199]

As if this makes a difference? His predictions regarding the primaries will permanently be a black mark on his career, regardless of whether or not he is correct about the general election.

Oh it definitely will, but its because primaries are hard to predict. However Trump was nearly always ahead in the primaries, Nate acted like a pundit and used conventional wisdom instead of the data. Now the data says trumps losing.

It would be very nice if you could link sources.

Sorry I should have linked some-

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/

Democratic early turnout has stayed steady in North Carolina compared to 2012, while Republicans have dropped by about 14,500. In Nevada, Democrats have a smaller early voting deficit today than they did at this point in 2012. And Democrats are slightly ahead in Arizona in the early vote so far, though they are lagging Republicans in the tally of how many Arizonans have requested ballots.
Perhaps most surprisingly, Democrats improved their position in conservative and Mormon-heavy Utah, where recent polls have shown a tight race. At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 22,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 3,509.

The best news Trump is in Iowa. So far, 38,280 more Democrats than Republicans have voted. It's a narrower advantage than 2012, when Democrats outpaced GOP voters by 53,719 at this point.

The numbers are also significantly down in Ohio, where the Republican-led legislature reduced the number of early voting days from 35 to 28. Only 179,162 people have cast ballots this year, a 66% drop from this point in 2012. Democrats have a slight lead in the early balloting, but their lead is smaller than in 2012, and overall Democratic turnout dropped at a higher rate than it did for Republicans.

There's more likely good news for Clinton in Virginia and Wisconsin, where she's maintained a steady advantage in the polls. Early voting has picked up in both blue-leaning states compared to this time in 2012.
In Wisconsin, the number of early voters to date more than tripled, jumping from 46,389 to 142,190. In-person early voting started in late October four years ago. But after a federal court struck down Wisconsin's strict voting laws, early voting began several weeks earlier in the Badger State this year.
Virginia saw a smaller increase of 18,079 voters, compared to 2012. The state doesn't allow unrestricted early voting, but residents can still vote early by providing an excuse and receiving an absentee ballot.
And in Republican-leaning Georgia, early voting is up by about 25% this year compared to 2012. That was clear Wednesday in Lawrenceville, where about 200 people lined up to vote in the county's only early voting location. Waiting times were two hours, officials said, and dragged longer in the afternoon.
For Clinton to upset Trump in the Peach State, she'll need strong turnout from non-white voters. So far, the African-American share of the early vote is slightly lower than it was at this point in 2012. But Hispanic and Asian voters have slightly boosted their share of the early electorate this year.

 

[Sweet and Savoury]

I dunno... its hard for me to blindly accept the "polls" that come from sources that have been pushing for a Clinton win since she started running.

While I doubt that Trump has much of a chance, due both to the massive collusion of MSM to push for a Clinton win and his own advance case of foot in mouth disease, I also believe that there is a lot of anti-establishment feels out there among the groups that normally dont get polled.

I expect a Lizard-lady win but its not going to the wipe out the media wants us to believe in.

 

[Ruin]

I dunno... its hard for me to blindly accept the "polls" that come from sources that have been pushing for a Clinton win since she started running.

While I doubt that Trump has much of a chance, due both to the massive collusion of MSM to push for a Clinton win and his own advance case of foot in mouth disease, I also believe that there is a lot of anti-establishment feels out there among the groups that normally dont get polled.

I expect a Lizard-lady win but its not going to the wipe out the media wants us to believe in.

Yea Clinton's going to win but its not going to be the 45 out of 50 sweep CNN claims.

 

[Roland MT-32]

An off the cuff wild guess about the primary has no reflection whatsoever on the model for the larger election. In fact, there really isn't a model for predicting the outcome of a primary with multiple significant candidates months away.

Primaries are also ridiculously unpredictable because they aren't done like normal elections. They're also not based on any particular model.

You don't get 49 out of 50 states one election (200 and 50 out of 50 the next (2012) by dumb luck. And it doesn't matter if Nate Silver falls over dead tomorrow, anyone can use more or less the same model to get the same results using the same data.

Silver's embarrassing failure to comprehend either Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump strongly suggests to me that either Silver or his formula struggles to account for populist candidates - which would be very understandable, as this election is the first in quite some time that has prominently featured multiple populist candidates. Alternatively, the source for that data is questionable.

And on your point of the Trump tapes, the point wasn't that those women were acting like "sluts" the point was that Trump was admitting that he proudly partakes in sexually assaulting women, and now we have close to 11+ women coming out and saying that Trump sexually assaulted them.

First of all, he did not brag about sexually assaulting women and attempting to construe his comments as such is moronic. Secondly, there's reason to be highly skeptical of the accusers - many of them are either tied to the Democrats or have made very questionable claims. (Shitty article, but they cite their claims)

Sorry I should have linked some-

The CNN (a source of little integrity, but that's a different argument for a different day) info you link suggests little of substance. Blue or blue-leaning states are either blue or blue leaning, red or red-leaning states are either red or red leaning. Utah being less reliably red than in 2012 can likely be attributed at least in part to the current GOP candidate not being a Mormon + McMullin siphoning votes. I would be very surprised if they do not turn out to be red come Nov. 8, however (Utah is one of the most conservative states)

 

[Pikimon]

I dunno... its hard for me to blindly accept the "polls" that come from sources that have been pushing for a Clinton win since she started running.

While I doubt that Trump has much of a chance, due both to the massive collusion of MSM to push for a Clinton win and his own advance case of foot in mouth disease, I also believe that there is a lot of anti-establishment feels out there among the groups that normally dont get polled.

I expect a Lizard-lady win but its not going to the wipe out the media wants us to believe in.

Trump is losing largely in part because of Trump.

A dumpster fire doesn't burn because you tell your friends about it.

 

[AnOminous]

Silver's embarrassing failure to comprehend either Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump strongly suggests to me that either Silver or his formula struggles to account for populist candidates - which would be very understandable, as this election is the first in quite some time that has prominently featured multiple populist candidates. Alternatively, the source for that data is questionable.

Statistical models have nothing to do with understanding anything, just counting things along a timeline, comparing them to previous results that happened after counting things on a timeline, and then doing some math on them. They could be orange harvests, baseball games, or elections. The model doesn't give a shit.

 

[Null]

If she does win the self-satisfied smug emanating from the Clinton drones will be disgusting. I can't even stomach the people on the forum who get giddy with excitement reading Nate Silver's latest self-aggrandizing bowel movement. I can't even trust a win from her because they've already found evidence of electronic tampering in Maryland and Illinois, but nothing is going to come out of it, just like how nothing came out of her foundation, her murders, her involvement in the middle east, and her handling of classified information.

Obama is a fucking moron intentionally sabotaging the country at this point by handing ICANN over to the United Nations and Clinton will continue to ruin things in that sense. I've decided if she does win I am moving the server over to Iceland and changing our domain permanently to .is, because I don't want anything to do with this country. I'll also probably move again. Seeing a chance at a Trump America helped me put my boots to the ground and start looking for work in the country because a faint flicker of hope and optimistic burned in me for a fraction of a second.

I think that's the most disappointing thing of all seeing people like the autistic communist gloating about polls. I'm not pro-Trump because I love his fucking hair. I see him as a way to challenge the status quo which has involved us in constant war since I was old enough to understand what war was. I see him as a way of keeping people I quite like in the services alive until they can get out. I see him as a way to improve an economy which has never benefited me; the only job I've had in the US involved french fries and every real dollar came from overseas. I see him as a way to feel good about being who I am.

My entire life I've been told I can't say the word nigger and I owe shit to black people and I needn't use the word "fag" because someone might be offended and the entire world is slant against women and I have it so easy because of my cock. I just can't understand things because I'm a straight white man living in America, and all Americans are stupid, especially those without a degree.

I caught less flak with a Nazi avatar openly quoting Hitler and Rommel than I did earnestly supporting Trump. I don't even know why. I don't support him because I hate Mexicans or some shit. People who like Trump more often than not just like their country and want to see good things come of it. They're willing to take a risk because they feel like they're staking something worth nothing for the chance of immense returns. We know what we'll get with Hillary and it's nothing good. Trump might be neo-Hitler or he might be the best president in recent memory. Maybe he'll flounder and get nothing done. There's a chance that he'll do good and there's not the faintest fucking hope that Clinton will do anything anyone will appreciate besides her owners.

 

[The 25th Cyberman]

If she does win the self-satisfied smug emanating from the Clinton drones will be disgusting. I can't even stomach the people on the forum who get giddy with excitement reading Nate Silver's latest self-aggrandizing bowel movement. I can't even trust a win from her because they've already found evidence of electronic tampering in Maryland and Illinois, but nothing is going to come out of it, just like how nothing came out of her foundation, her murders, her involvement in the middle east, and her handling of classified information.

Obama is a fucking moron intentionally sabotaging the country at this point by handing ICANN over to the United Nations and Clinton will continue to ruin things in that sense. I've decided if she does win I am moving the server over to Iceland and changing our domain permanently to .is, because I don't want anything to do with this country. I'll also probably move again. Seeing a chance at a Trump America helped me put my boots to the ground and start looking for work in the country because a faint flicker of hope and optimistic burned in me for a fraction of a second.

I think that's the most disappointing thing of all seeing people like the autistic communist gloating about polls. I'm not pro-Trump because I love his fucking hair. I see him as a way to challenge the status quo which has involved us in constant war since I was old enough to understand what war was. I see him as a way of keeping people I quite like in the services alive until they can get out. I see him as a way to improve an economy which has never benefited me; the only job I've had in the US involved french fries and every real dollar came from overseas. I see him as a way to feel good about being who I am.

My entire life I've been told I can't say the word nigger and I owe shit to black people and I needn't use the word "fag" because someone might be offended and the entire world is slant against women and I have it so easy because of my cock. I just can't understand things because I'm a straight white man living in America, and all Americans are stupid, especially those without a degree.

I caught less flak with a Nazi avatar openly quoting Hitler and Rommel than I did earnestly supporting Trump. I don't even know why. I don't support him because I hate Mexicans or some shit. People who like Trump more often than not just like their country and want to see good things come of it. They're willing to take a risk because they feel like they're staking something worth nothing for the chance of immense returns. We know what we'll get with Hillary and it's nothing good. Trump might be neo-Hitler or he might be the best president in recent memory. Maybe he'll flounder and get nothing done. There's a chance that he'll do good and there's not the faintest fucking hope that Clinton will do anything anyone will appreciate besides her owners.

Sometimes, people believe things not because they understand them to be true, but because they want them to be.

 

[Null]

Sometimes, people believe things not because they understand them to be true, but because they want them to be.

Wow what wonderful words of wisdom. I now know that my support for Trump is entirely optimism and my uneducated straight white male brain just couldn't process how dangerous he is with those stubby fingers of his. I'm going to vote for Hillary right away! For the children!.

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

This thread seems to have devolved into a "Trump is done" circlejerk. Let's review real quick:

- The most accurate poll of the last three elections overall gives Trump a 2-point lead over Hillary
- The single most accurate poll of 2012 gives Trump a very slight lead
- The PPD tracking poll puts Trump 2 points ahead
And that's ultimately rather irrelevant, because:
- Hillary's cronies have a history of manipulating polls in her favor to demoralize her opposition.
And let's not forget that Nate Silver, seemingly some kind of poll god, both claimed that Trump's campaign could never win the GOP nomination and that Bernie Sanders would lose Michigan (he was down in polls by as much as 20 points prior to the MI primary being held)

And of course, there's Brexit and the Shy Tory factor.

And also let's not forget that Primary model (correctly predicted every election since 1912 save 1960) gives Trump an 87% or greater chance of victory based on his primary turnout.

Also as long as I'm here and making a large post I'm gonna embed the Veritas videos because everyone should watch them regardless of whether or not you want Trump to win.

Spoiler: off topic but important

https://youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzYhttps://youtube.com/watch?v=hDc8PVCvfKs

tl;dr the lizard queen hasn't won yet and everyone in this thread (myself included) has autism

Oh god it's spreading. Listen man, we'll win in 2020 it's just four years away.

 

[Techpriest]

Oh god it's spreading. Listen man, we'll win in 2020 it's just four years away.

Most likely. Hillary is a weak canidate, the thing is Trump's even weaker.

 

[AnOminous]

Most likely. Hillary is a weak canidate, the thing is Trump's even weaker.

I wouldn't be surprised at all. She has been a terrible candidate even against someone like Trump, and even with a rigged primary, barely beat a self-avowed socialist who looks like if your crazy uncle slept in a dumpster. She had best have done magic by 2020 if she wants to beat any semi-human candidate the GOP can spit out.

 

[Xarpho]

Even if Hillary wins, Trump's supporters are not going to go away. Already <a href="http://time.com/4540101/sequel-to-donald-trump-campaign/">TIME is positing what they call a "nightmare scenario" where Trump and his supporters create a far-right party supported by a new media empire</a>. And if Hillary's health problems are correct and she drops dead, then that will destabilize the Democratic party. It's never over.

 

[Pikimon]

Even if Hillary wins, Trump's supporters are not going to go away. Already <a href="http://time.com/4540101/sequel-to-donald-trump-campaign/">TIME is positing what they call a "nightmare scenario" where Trump and his supporters create a far-right party supported by a new media empire</a>. And if Hillary's health problems are correct and she drops dead, then that will destabilize the Democratic party. It's never over.

If Hillary drops dead then Tim Kaine is president. The last thing the GOP wants is another shift to the hard-right.

 

[JU 199]

@Null I understand you're upset about your boy losing. But that's the fundamentals of the race now and his fault. You didn't have a problem when myself and others would drop polls here during the primary showing trump ahead. I fucking said trump would win the primary based from the fundamentals and the polls. I hate Trump but polls routinely favored him and I enjoyed watching him perform. Donald fucking bulldozed the entire field because he was way better than them and knew what the base wanted. There's several points in the general where he could have overtaken Hilary. However Donny cant seem to crush one of the most dishonest politicians in america and has resorted to excuses. Its almost completely is fault. It's not my fault if nearly all the polls say the motherfucker is losing. Its his. there's no grand conspiracy to stop him just his own behavior.

Maybe opening your primary campaign with 'All Mexicans are rapists' (paraphrasing) and then alienating every other demographic that isn't white, male or without college education is a terrible idea? As you said "My entire life I've been told I can't say the word nigger" That great advice for trump, don't fucking shit on groups of people you needs to win the election. When your groping tape drops, perhaps you shouldn't do a fucking half assed pivot apology and do a proper one.

I can't even trust a win from her because they've already found evidence of electronic tampering in Maryland and Illinois, but nothing is going to come out of it, just like how nothing came out of her foundation, her murders, her involvement in the middle east, and her handling of classified information.

Clinton isn't liked by Americans. She routinely creates her own scandals and has almost criminal judgement. However: Say you're a GOP leaning voter with some Mexican lineage- You hear on the news that someone who could be running the country one day say you're a rapist. Its insulting and terrifying when you're on the other end it. What if you're suburban woman who usually leans republican and you hear your candidate might be a rapist with a groping tape to prove it. You'd be fucking horrified.

Clinton shouldn't be able to easily reach these people. They've happily voted republican before. It takes a very, very weak politician to lose grip of these winnable groups even when historic trends are favorable.

It not the country's fault, its Trump's I know you wont agree but there's solid reasons the lizard is ahead that aren't conspiracies.

 

[Null]

@Null I understand you're upset about your boy losing.

Polls show him up now on RCP and election is 2 weeks out but whatever. This is exactly what I mean about smug and pretentious. Instead of trying to talk to me like a human being that you know very well and who you've seen throw all of his resources into supporting things he's very passionate about for your benefit, you opt to talk down to me like I'm some sort of child.

I'm not reading past this sentence as I refuse to subjugate myself to petty belittlement. Like I said, I caught less shit supporting my boy Adolph.

 

[Techpriest]

Polls show him up now on RCP and election is 2 weeks out but whatever. This is exactly what I mean about smug and pretentious. Instead of trying to talk to me like a human being that you know very well and who you've seen throw all of his resources into supporting things he's very passionate about for your benefit, you opt to talk down to me like I'm some sort of child.

I'm not reading past this sentence as I refuse to subjugate myself to petty belittlement. Like I said, I caught less shit supporting my boy Adolph.

You caught less shit supporting Adolf because that's just being a contrarian attention seeking edgelord faggot. Literally nobody gives a shit about it because it just show's you're a fucking sperg.

 

[Null]

You caught less shit supporting Adolf because that's just being a contrarian attention seeking edgelord faggot. Literally nobody gives a shit about it because it just show's you're a fucking sperg.

And still no one cared. No one belittled me on this site for political reasons until this election. It is only people like you who do. I can't even describe how intolerant and subsequently intolerable you are.

 

[JU 199]

I'm not reading past this sentence as I refuse to subjugate myself to petty belittlement. Like I said, I caught less shit supporting my boy Adolph.

Honestly you're reading into things that aren't there. I said that because I know his campaign means something to you. I could have said 'hahaha fuck off no' but I didn't because I wanted to explain myself and talk to you like an adult.