2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

first thread devolved into shitposting, here's a new one

 

[JU 199]

"Whoa! Karl Rove is right!"

I think he's learned not to deny reality.

 

[TrippinKahlua]

FANTASY MAP TIME!

While all you fuckers stick in on the wagon you've been on all year - which is that Trump will never be President, we in the Alt-Right have our own versions of Nate Silver and the Digitized media. For now, I won't divulge too hardly in the sources for this map but it takes in effect that all the states within the center of the map flip for Trump. Again, the stupid idea of Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Utah are up for grabs is eliminated. Map where Trump wins without Texas. This map happens because of surprise high turnout in rural counties, overlapping the cities.

I tried to construct another fantasy map based upon the 46/50 theory that's been around for a good while, but at this point, I don't see how thats anywhere possible.

 

[Techpriest]

FANTASY MAP TIME!

While all you fuckers stick in on the wagon you've been on all year - which is that Trump will never be President, we in the Alt-Right have our own versions of Nate Silver and the Digitized media. For now, I won't divulge too hardly in the sources for this map but it takes in effect that all the states within the center of the map flip for Trump. Again, the stupid idea of Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Utah are up for grabs is eliminated. Map where Trump wins without Texas. This map happens because of surprise high turnout in rural counties, overlapping the cities.

I tried to construct another fantasy map based upon the 46/50 theory that's been around for a good while, but at this point, I don't see how thats anywhere possible.

>Fantasy map

A good description of what you just posted!

 

[JU 199]

the stupid idea of Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Utah are up for grabs is eliminated.

lol that's not a stupid idea, its supported by alot of polling

 

[DZ 305]

Its funny how bias from the left (Silver) is fine, but bias from the right isn't.

Its funnier how you think Nate Silver has a leftest bias, despite his model being far more conservative and thus merciful to Trump.
And I've mocked anyone that seriously used Huffington Post or Salon as well as Breitbart
Why do you hate Nate so much? Does his model really rustle you that fucking bad?

 

[Very Honest Content]

I want to know how TK justifies taking North Carolina off the in play state roster when the early voting returns are way down for registered Repubican voters compared to where they were four years ago and traditionally their turnout there at this point in the process has swamped other parties in that state?

 

[CatParty]

For now, I won't divulge too hardly in the sources for this map

lol breitbart

 

[DZ 305]

FANTASY MAP TIME!

While all you fuckers stick in on the wagon you've been on all year - which is that Trump will never be President,

1) Trump shouldn't and likely won't become President.

we in the Alt-Right have our own versions of Nate Silver and the Digitized media. For now, I won't divulge too hardly in the sources for this map but it takes in effect that all the states within the center of the map flip for Trump.

So your sources are the same ones Trump used to learn "the Truth" about Obama's birth certificate?

If you have some source that is an accomplished statistician, please identify them.

Again, the stupid idea of Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and Utah are up for grabs is eliminated. Map where Trump wins without Texas. This map happens because of surprise high turnout in rural counties, overlapping the cities.

>Trump winning Michigan, but losing Wisconsin and Pennslyvennia
>Illinois goes red, despite the nearest margin being a 10 percent difference in Kerry's favor
>Trump is doing worse than Romney was, but Trump continues to alienate anyone that isn't already a core part of his base
And your experence with US elections is based on?

I want to know how TK justifies taking North Carolina off the in play state roster when the early voting returns are way down for registered Repubican voters compared to where they were four years ago and traditionally their turnout there at this point in the process has swamped other parties in that state?

:autism::autism::autism:

 

[Shokew]

Its funny how bias from the left (Silver) is fine, but bias from the right isn't.

No bias is good from any side, thank you very much - I know the race is closer than the media wants us to believe, too, so you're not alone on that one. Still.....

 

[Ruin]

While I still believe the Lizard Queen is going to win I have to agree with @TrippinKahlua that the MSM polls are wildly optimistic. Some of the polling has Hilldog leading white male voters over 40 at +10 which is obvious bullshit.

 

[TrippinKahlua]

What bothers me the most with the citation of Nate Silver so much is how revered he seems to be. Give me crap for disregarding him yet you're guilty of it as well, with the Professor who owns a model what he calls the "Keys to the White House", he has been correct since 1984, a lot longer than Nate Silver.

So why is he wrong? Because he's "For Trump?" Just this weekend he was on Fox News (yes, LOL FOX NEWS) and he still stands by his prediction.

Why do commentators cite the constant Trump signs? Why do Trump rallies in many, many states go well into 30,000 in attendance at least? Why are celebrities like Madonna and Miley Cyrus acting like sluts for Hillary when at the same time the left is supposed to be bitching about the Trump Tapes?

 

[Chiang Kai-shek]

This election cycle can't end soon enough, Trump's campaign is like a fatally wounded dog. Just gotta put it out of its misery.

And this is coming from a Trump supporter.

 

[TrippinKahlua]

Wow, the girl on the far right has one HARD island accent.

 

[AnOminous]

Its funny how bias from the left (Silver) is fine, but bias from the right isn't.

He's aggregating polls you fucking idiot. What's he supposed to do, change his model just to favor Trump? How the fuck would that be unbiased?

 

[Lorento]

Why do Trump rallies in many, many states go well into 30,000 in attendance at least?

I've said it before, large rallies do not mean large results. It proves that Trump has a more energised voter base, not necessarily a larger one.

 

[Roland MT-32]

This thread seems to have devolved into a "Trump is done" circlejerk. Let's review real quick:

- The most accurate poll of the last three elections overall gives Trump a 2-point lead over Hillary
- The single most accurate poll of 2012 gives Trump a very slight lead
- The PPD tracking poll puts Trump 2 points ahead
And that's ultimately rather irrelevant, because:
- Hillary's cronies have a history of manipulating polls in her favor to demoralize her opposition.
And let's not forget that Nate Silver, seemingly some kind of poll god, both claimed that Trump's campaign could never win the GOP nomination and that Bernie Sanders would lose Michigan (he was down in polls by as much as 20 points prior to the MI primary being held)

And of course, there's Brexit and the Shy Tory factor.

And also let's not forget that Primary model (correctly predicted every election since 1912 save 1960) gives Trump an 87% or greater chance of victory based on his primary turnout.

Also as long as I'm here and making a large post I'm gonna embed the Veritas videos because everyone should watch them regardless of whether or not you want Trump to win.

Spoiler: off topic but important

tl;dr the lizard queen hasn't won yet and everyone in this thread (myself included) has autism

 

[JU 199]

Also as long as I'm here and making a large post I'm gonna embed the Veritas videos because everyone should watch them regardless of whether or not you want Trump to win.

Yeah anything with O'Keeffe involved is suspect.

And let's not forget that Nate Silver, seemingly some kind of poll god, both claimed that Trump's campaign could never win the GOP nomination and that Bernie Sanders would lose Michigan

1)He's already explained himself on that and apologized for acting like a pundit

- The most accurate poll of the last three elections overall gives Trump a 2-point lead over Hillary
- The single most accurate poll of 2012 gives Trump a very slight lead
- The PPD tracking poll puts Trump 2 points ahead

Nearly every other poll bar these 3 are showing a massive Lizard lead.

Perhaps I shouldn't say its inevitable but we already have concrete information that shows-

• Republicans under performing with early voting bar Ohio and Iowa where they're slightly over performing. Republicans tend to vote early more then democrats but data show's they're far behind their 2012 totals. If the Romney ticket lost last time with in some cases record republican early voting how are they supposed to win now?

• There's leaks from GOP operatives that say their internal party polling is fucked.

I could go on but my point is- There's no massive polling conspiracy. Either all the polls that give Hilary the lead are inaccurate or they're not but its far less likely that they are.

 

[Roland MT-32]

Perhaps I shouldn't say its inevitable but we already have concrete information that shows-

• Republicans under performing with early voting bar Ohio and Iowa where they're slightly over performing. Republicans tend to vote early more then democrats but data show's they're far behind their 2012 totals. If the Romney ticket lost last time with in some cases record republican early voting how are they supposed to win now?

• There's leaks from GOP operatives that say their internal party polling is fucked.

It would be very nice if you could link sources. I recall rumors going around about leaked early voting data recently but those rumors all turned out to be false (The data had been used for testing purposes and was not legitimate IIRC). I have heard absolutely nothing about leaks from within the GOP.

Nearly every other poll bar these 3 are showing a massive Lizard lead.

The LA Times and TIPP polls that I posted have extremely good records. I would trust those two polls over the vast majority of others, especially given we've seen a number of polls produced by organizations such as Reuters that oversample minorities and registered dems.

1)He's already explained himself on that and apologized for acting like a pundit

As if this makes a difference? His predictions regarding the primaries will permanently be a black mark on his career, regardless of whether or not he is correct about the general election.

Yeah anything with O'Keeffe involved is suspect.

If the information revealed is false why has Scott Foval been fired?

 

[Ineedahero]

I think the point is that we could all go on about polls and how they say what we want - @TrippinKahlua with the Donald leading, @Very Honest Content with a Hillary landslide, me with the San Andreas fault opening up and swallowing the entire continent - but no matter what, it's all pretty dull to read.

 

[AnOminous]

As if this makes a difference? His predictions regarding the primaries will permanently be a black mark on his career, regardless of whether or not he is correct about the general election.

An off the cuff wild guess about the primary has no reflection whatsoever on the model for the larger election. In fact, there really isn't a model for predicting the outcome of a primary with multiple significant candidates months away.

Primaries are also ridiculously unpredictable because they aren't done like normal elections. They're also not based on any particular model.

You don't get 49 out of 50 states one election (200 and 50 out of 50 the next (2012) by dumb luck. And it doesn't matter if Nate Silver falls over dead tomorrow, anyone can use more or less the same model to get the same results using the same data.