2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

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Ass Manager 3000 said:
Given that he's backed off from the NYT I doubt he'll be successful
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Trump may not be a TRUE and HONEST conservative in many people's minds like Beck and co., but I have never seen a conservative punch back this hard before.

Usually when a con is accused of, whatever, murder, rape, genocide, they curl up in a ball and apologize for their existence.

Trump hits back only as hard as his opponents do, like jujitsu. He can say things that will make people lose the will to live, but holds back too much.

He has essentially given the right their balls back after being pumped in the ass for years and living in the shadows as these vile curmudgeons
 
TrippinKahlua said:
This map allows Trump to win without Pennsylvania and Virginia, yet assumes Iowa and Nevada go for Trump.

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I'm not sure how possible that map is anymore. Many of those states are not up for grabs (if you believe the polling). Iowa and Ohio toss ups tho so trump could win there. Apparently early voting is looking quite positive for the dems bar those two states. I'd be surprised if he didn't pick Iowa up.

Apparently Georgia might be in contention too. The swing states in grey are the only places he can take.

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Hilary doesn't need those states to reach her target, which is why Clinton's chances are so high now. 538's simulations-

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Five thirty eight. Five Thirty Eight. 538. Five 3 Eight. Nate Silver, Nate Silver Nate Silver.

538. 538 538!
 
538 is the biggest load of crack there is. Its basing all of this on its "Obama Zone", as your image implicated, which is based off the popularity of Obama (which Clinton does not have) and the respective unpopularity of John McCain and Mitt Romney (which Trump also, does not have).
 
TrippinKahlua said:
538 is the biggest load of crack there is. Its basing all of this on its "Obama Zone", as your image implicated, which is based off the popularity of Obama (which Clinton does not have) and the respective unpopularity of John McCain and Mitt Romney (which Trump also, does not have).
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No, the Obama zone is a comparison metric for Clinton's performance, not about Obama's popularity.
 
If you guys insist, I will return to the time machine.

Every forty or so years, major political shifts happen. You had Reagan, you had JFK, you had Coolidge, you had Obama. And Obama has been part two of the Democratic ruled political shift that happened in 1992. GWB happened out of sheer luck and correct alignment of planets.

GOP voters who cared no fucks about McCain and Romney will come out in droves this year, wanting their lives back. Even fucking Illinois has something to fear if that Cracked article is to be believed.

The Amish are voting. They don't care if it means touching a computer. They want their lives back.

Poor shits who got no jobs after college are going to vote. They got no money to begin with so why invest with the Democrats this time?

If you think I've truly gone broken, you ain't seen nothing yet.

I can post many many an article for you, but you'll just counter it with Silver or something.
 
>Early Voters

I'm done.

On one hand there's "aggregate" and the next it seems its "early voting" (what the fuck is that supposed to mean?). Most voters do not vote until the actual Election day.
 
TrippinKahlua said:
If you guys insist, I will return to the time machine.

Every forty or so years, major political shifts happen. You had Reagan, you had JFK, you had Coolidge, you had Obama. And Obama has been part two of the Democratic ruled political shift that happened in 1992. GWB happened out of sheer luck and correct alignment of planets.
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Trump is significantly behind in comparison to anyone you just listed.

As I've said before there aren’t really any direct precedents for a candidate coming back from this far down to win an American presidential election, although you can make a few loose analogies.

Harry Truman’s comeback over Thomas Dewey in 1948 almost works as a comparison, but Truman wasn’t coming from as far behind as Trump is, and there was much less polling in 1948.

Ronald Reagan had a significant late surge against Jimmy Carter in 1980, but he was ahead beforehand — and the surge came in large part because of a debate that occurred just one week before the election, whose impact was too late to be fully reflected in the polls. If Trump was going to have a Reaganesque surge, in other words, it probably would have started with a commanding performance in last night’s debate — and not another loss.

Obama at this point already was ahead by a noticeable amount (Thanks to the work of Palin, and the fear over Romney) But the race was much closer than this election (Romney was at least arguably coherent enough to run a country).

TrippinKahlua said:
GOP voters who cared no fucks about McCain and Romney will come out in droves this year, wanting their lives back. Even fucking Illinois has something to fear if that Cracked article is to be believed.
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Except that a significant amount of Republicans are either switching over to Gary Johnson, abstaining from voting, or even voting for the Lizard Queen herself. Particularly women, minority and old-guard Republicans who are turned off by Trump

It's why that Utah has a good chance to going to a 3rd party candidate. For a lot of Republicans they see rightfully see Trump as the ruination of their party.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...-hillary-clinton-instead-of-donald-trump.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/02/politics/republican-women-organize-to-support-clinton/

TrippinKahlua said:
The Amish are voting. They don't care if it means touching a computer. They want their lives back.
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The Amish generally do not vote, a large part of their faith has to do with separation with the outside world in order to ensure spiritual purity, while there has been a small surge in voting registration their impact on elections are very, very small.

That being said Trump isn't a good candidate for the Amish to support.

Trump has filed for divorce multiple times, and several of his businesses went bankrupt, he's had 5 children from 3 different women, admitted on camera to cheating on his spouses, etc.. Any of these actions, individually, are grounds for excommunication in the Amish faith. And it’s hard to image Amish feeling as strong of a connection to Trump. After all, Trump isn’t openly religious and his lifestyle is anything but “spiritually pure”

TrippinKahlua said:
Poor shits who got no jobs after college are going to vote. They got no money to begin with so why invest with the Democrats this time?
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College graduates in general tend to vote left more. Trump is doing terrible with people with post-high school education (He's managed to lose the white male college vote, a demographic that used to be solidly Republican) and has so far given very little incentive for people with college education to vote for him.

TrippinKahlua said:
If you think I've truly gone broken, you ain't seen nothing yet..
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Can't wait.
 
My only question is how much damage as Trump done to the party in the long run? I really doubt he'll destroy the republican party but he's done enough damage. I really hope the next election Republicans get their shit together. Hopefully Clinton is just a one termer as she is already unpopular enough as it is.
 
So I got texted by the Stein campaign despite previous requests that they kindly fuck off with calling my house and spamming my email. So I had a bit of fun with them
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They were not happy with me
 
PortsideDave said:
My only question is how much damage as Trump done to the party in the long run? I really doubt he'll destroy the republican party but he's done enough damage. I really hope the next election Republicans get their shit together. Hopefully Clinton is just a one termer as she is already unpopular enough as it is.
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If they don't break now, they won't until Texas goes blue.
 
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