- Joined
- Aug 26, 2018
Peter Hitchens vs Mike Graham.
www.youtube.com
https://archive.vn/FmrW0
I like the way Hitch compares the media to the media in the USSR which was allowed to criticize policy delivery but not to criticize policy, because policy was the result of Scientific Socialism. Similarly today, the vast majority of the media claims the lockdown is what The Science says, even though individual scientists disagree and the journalists do not have the education to even understand the arguments. And look at this
www.worldometers.info
https://archive.vn/wip/XX6SL
Someone's added a 3-day moving average because we've all got time on our hands and writing some code, any code probably made them feel productive. I know the feeling.
The lockdown happened on the 23rd and if it worked you should see the infection rate drop after the incubation period. Actually it seems like the US trajectory of the disease is very similar to everywhere else, in fact, it's in the top half of the spread of curves here
https://archive.vn/wip/kUE71
Hitch pointed to this article
https://archive.vn/kIRUV
I think I'm about 60% convinced that the lockdown was a mistake (the Hitchens view) and about 40% convinced that it's a prudent measure (the Graham one). I don't expect a sudden change of heart by the government, but I do think they'll back away from the lockdown. I also think that people will gradually go back to work and the police will be told not to harass them unless they're doing something egregious.
It's worth pointing out that back when the lockdown was announced, I was convinced it was the right thing to do. Still things have changed since then.
Columnist Peter Hitchens: Boris Johnson has created this coronavirus terror in the public mind.
Mike Graham speaks to journalist and author Peter Hitchens for their fifth debate over the coronavirus pandemic and the effects of lockdown. Peter Hitchens s...
I like the way Hitch compares the media to the media in the USSR which was allowed to criticize policy delivery but not to criticize policy, because policy was the result of Scientific Socialism. Similarly today, the vast majority of the media claims the lockdown is what The Science says, even though individual scientists disagree and the journalists do not have the education to even understand the arguments. And look at this
United Kingdom Coronavirus: 114,217 Cases and 15,464 Deaths - Worldometer
United Kingdom Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
https://archive.vn/wip/XX6SL
Someone's added a 3-day moving average because we've all got time on our hands and writing some code, any code probably made them feel productive. I know the feeling.
The lockdown happened on the 23rd and if it worked you should see the infection rate drop after the incubation period. Actually it seems like the US trajectory of the disease is very similar to everywhere else, in fact, it's in the top half of the spread of curves here
https://archive.vn/wip/kUE71
Hitch pointed to this article
https://archive.vn/kIRUV
This phenomenological study assesses the impacts of full lockdown strategies applied in Italy, France, Spain and United Kingdom, on the slowdown of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak. Comparing the trajectory of the epidemic before and after the lockdown, we find no evidence of any discontinuity in the growth rate, doubling time, and reproduction number trends. Extrapolating pre-lockdown growth rate trends, we provide estimates of the death toll in the absence of any lockdown policies, and show that these strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighboring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures (as opposed to police-enforced home containment) experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.
I think I'm about 60% convinced that the lockdown was a mistake (the Hitchens view) and about 40% convinced that it's a prudent measure (the Graham one). I don't expect a sudden change of heart by the government, but I do think they'll back away from the lockdown. I also think that people will gradually go back to work and the police will be told not to harass them unless they're doing something egregious.
It's worth pointing out that back when the lockdown was announced, I was convinced it was the right thing to do. Still things have changed since then.
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