Small quibble - while you nailed the rest, especially about the German political power players had expected Hitler to be inexperienced and out-of-his-depth, thereby pliable by them (or easily replaced as he fucked up).
It is very hard to separate what Hitler's real goals were beyond expanding the German state & people. Sometimes he just seemed to have spouted things off, either thinking aloud for an audience to to gauge reactions. (During the planning and war with Russia, Hitler seemed to vascilate on what to do with the Russians once beaten, including trying to make Stalin into a Nazi and putting him back in charge) It also doesn't help that once Bormann got his claws into him, combined with Hitler's (possible) advancing parkinsons due to age and stress, he lost of lot of his direction, cleverness, and will and was more open to manipulation & subversion by those around him.
The Holocaust & Madagascar plan is very cloudy for this reason. But he seemed to, for at least a period, really subscribe and believe to the plan and took at least first exploratory steps to have it actually implemented.
Which seems sort of schizophrenic, but the Holocaust being green lit - that is, the actual intentional killing of jews in concentration camps - was the work of Himmler, delegated to Heydrich, probably with prompting by Goebbels. Hitler may have never known what was put forward.
(Which also doesn't mean Hitler would have been completely unaware; Himmler was not known for his love of Jews, so tasking Himmler with dealing with the Jews & political prisoners was at very least the equivalent of sighing very loudy "Will no one rid me of this meddlesome preist Rabbi?")
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