I think its going to hit them.
Note Trump has been uncharacteristically diplomatic when dealing with them publicly. No "Stupid" or "Morons" or the usually lcd insults he likes to use. He's also been very open about what he's offering in exchange for the wall, and preemptively got on TV to spell out to the nation why it is important. He is making it clear the ball is in the democrat's court and they are so consumed with TDS they won't give him one tenth of one percent of the budget to secure the wall. And he's being, especially for Trump, very polite about it.
Which isn't to say he isn't backchannel provoking them endlessly, and then waving a red cape. Not simply canceling their European vacation at the 11th hour (which was solid fucking gold), but also straight up DARING them to approve the deal he was sending to them by saying they couldn't accept it because they're held hostage by the radical elements of their party (which isn't exactly wrong). But he's making sure to do it directly to them, using "private" means, and not publically insulting them.
The Dems seriously just need to take the 2020 loss and start thinking about 2024.