Another Iranian soldier has defected, filming a statement that although he was at first reluctant to do anything out of fear of reprisal from above, he was even more horrified by the January massacres and that 'when the time comes' (presumably when Pahlavi/Trump give the order to rise up again?) he will stand with the people against the Mullahs.
ssstwitter.com_1772818961161.mp4
For comparison, in Syria it took about three months from the first reported SAA defections, usually of individual low-ranking grunts like this guy & the one I posted two pages back (April 2011), for the FSA (the first real rebel army) to get organized in July 2011. Albeit the FSA, obviously, never enjoyed the backing of direct US/Israeli air power vs. Assad, nor did they have either an obvious choice for leader in Pahlavi or as close a grip on them as the CIA/Mossad likely will/already have on any nascent Iranian rebellion, so maybe events will move more quickly here compared to 2011.
Defections from specifically the Iranian army wouldn't and shouldn't be too surprising. It's important to remember that the Iranian Army =/= the IRGC. the army is almost all conscription based and just the young Iranian male populace. They're ill equipped in most cases and aren't going to be die hard supporters of the regime.
Now if we start to see IRGC defections it will be a lot more telling since the IRGC is going to be the hardline believers in the theocracy and if they start calling it quits it's a lot bigger of a deal.
I recall hearing way back at the start of the attacks that we already know where the uranium is.
Last I recall it is largely assumed to be stashed in one of their nuclear facilities we had previously struck. The hard part of getting it is going to be the fact that in the runup to the operation Iran once again buried the tunnel entrances to the facility.
It's not going to be a simple slip in and slip out operation to overcome that, they're going to need to get their hands on equipment to dig the tunnels back out in order to go in and retrieve the goods. Which is something that would take hours and hours to do and wouldn't be particularly covert.
So, in theory, all China and Russia have to do is keep aiding Iran in whatever way they can without getting directly involved, as America diminishes it's stockpiles, and keeps them bogged down in a military quagmire. Russia reverse Uno carded them with Ukraine.
My brother in christ you're genuinely retarded if you're thinking that's true. China wants this shit to stop by any means necessary not to drag it out because they need gulf oil. and Russia isn't going to perpetually send aid into a second warzone they're already bogged down with one. Backing Iran heavily and consistantly isn't them playing a reverse card, it's them doubling down on what they're already trapped in.
Also, most of the drones Russia has used in the war come from Iran. They can’t exactly get more of them to use in Ukraine if what’s left of Iran’s military is using the drones. If anything, this situation is making things worse for Russia, as outside of human waves, they rely on drone strikes.
Russia has for quite some time been producing their own shaheds domestically. and to some minor degree have even reversed the flow of them. A shahed intercepted in one of the gulf states was found intact and had Russian writing on it's internal hardware meaning that Iran had stocks of Russian made shaheds now too.
I dont know how to help some people on this thread
The amount that you don't know is the reason you can't help anyone on this thread. Google AI summaries offer more depth and insight than anything you've posted here which is usually just a few headlines you saw for articles you didn't read but that you pretend to understand.
holy shit I was right, even a broken clock, amiright?
Like see right here you tip your hand on how retarded you are.
Rubio, and the US, have touted regime change as being a tangental possibility, not a targetted goal since day one of the war. It's always had it's goals stated as simply dismantling the threat Iran poses to the region, it's missile programs, and it's nuclear ambitions while decapitating the leadership of the current regime. Rubio said as much on I think it was monday of this week, and Trumps first announcement of operations even put regime change as a "well if you guys want to do it this will be your chance but this might be it for generations"
Regime change isn't unwanted or unwelcome, but it's not "the goal" but it's possibility is something we acknowledged.
it wasent SUPPOSED to kill the ayatollah
The entire reason we acted at the time we did was because we had a window to knock out the ayatollah and a bunch of senior staff in one neat package. What fanfiction are you crafting.
Thing is each one of theirs costs about 30,000 a pop ours are a few million a pop
well, that and ours actually tend to hit their target and have a meaningful impact.
Yeah, I agree with you. I got lazy and did not list the drones. Those are most definitely the biggest threat to shipping. I don't see any way the US can deal with those in a cost efficient manner. You can't use airpower to stop weapons that fit in a large car and can be launched from hundreds of kilometers away. As long as Iran remains a functioning state they will be able to build and use these things. The US basically needs to regime change Iran now if it wants to avoid economic crisis.
Ukraine takes down over a thousand shaheds a day on some days and does it in a cost effective way. The US needs a change of gears in how we combat them instead of relying on our expensive interceptors, and that change is likely in the process of happening as Ukraine has already agreed to assist us in adopting their cheaper interception methods using cheap drones to combat the cheap drones.
the ballsy fuckers, so China is getting oil still
as you can see in the screenshot you posted, the KSL Hengyang is a bulk carrier. Which is not an oil tanker. Bulk carriers transport dry goods generally.
So again like I said earlier you tend to just post shit without actually knowing what you're looking at.