Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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Amit, should we here in Israel be concerned about the possibility that Trump is already aiming for an end?

In short, no.

Okay.

And in more detail?

For two reasons.

The main reason is that I think there is enough recent, medium-term and long-term experience to show us that we should proceed with extreme caution, and then double-check our caution, and then triple-check our caution when it comes to gaps between Israel and the U.S., when Trump and Netanyahu are in the key offices.

While the world reports on distancing and Trump’s indecision, we now know for sure that the final agreement on the strike was reached three weeks ago. The Americans are calling it as if it were already at the final planning stage, just crossing the T’s and dotting the I’s, and that was the point. We see the amazing coordination.

I will give one example.

The same bomber squadron is coming. It is not attacking the nuclear facilities now; it is attacking the facilities, the ballistic factories that are located underground.

Now, this is an important event, one of a kind.

I remind you of that meeting in Mar-a-Lago that ended when the U.S. president came out and said, yes, from our point of view, when the Iranians are intensifying their ballistic missile factories—not the nuclear sites that the U.S. has been targeting all these years, but the ballistic sites that mainly threaten Israel—from our point of view, the U.S. is a lock for war.

He then said that we (the U.S.) probably did not listen, or we forgot, or we were misled by spin.

So that’s the first thing.

The second thing that needs to be said is that there are two important additions from the last few minutes.

One is that Trump says at the same time, in the same vein in The Atlantic, that he is waiting and expecting the Iranians to take to the streets. That’s not how someone who is coming to an agreement looks.

And the second thing is the revelations of the Iranian foreign minister, who seems to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing, who is now posting that we were on the verge of an agreement, and then Trump came along and bombed the negotiating table.

The same table, which everyone knows, produced nothing.

In fact, the game now is about Trump’s timing, about an action that does not have full American consensus, and how is Trump maneuvering between all the issues?

An elephant does not do half a job halfway, and the elephant is the symbol of the Republican Party.

The event is very simple.

The moment Trump stood at the crossroads two months ago and told the protesters that help was on the way, it was not just that if he had not done that, he would have been like Obama—he would have been worse than Obama.

Because what was discussed then in the agreement was also the end of sanctions, to fill the regime’s pockets with money and essentially deal a death blow to the protesters.

So it’s clear that this will not happen.

Now about the rest of the story.

Even now there appear to be two strategies. One says that in a few days—by the way, they are talking about fantastical things on the way—it will really take them a few more days.

When Trump talks about the plan, there is a plan, and it is supposed to be realized and only then stop—really unusual and breathtaking things.

The moment Trump is in now—when can Trump finish?

Only if he knows with complete certainty that when he finishes, the rest will already be the work of protesters.

That’s already a process. That’s a point of no return.

Once it is not there, and we know it is very difficult to predict how crowds will behave, then he will strike another blow, and in my opinion, it is something relative.
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Myrtle the Turtle said:
I expect the majority of the IRGC fleet to be okay. Don't misunderstand Iran won't have a usable navy, all their large frigates and ships are getting blown up, but the IRGC has a huge fleet of go-fast boats intended for swarm attacks. These boats range from the size of a small center console to large yachts. They range from 30-100 ft of multiple sizes and can easily be transported by semi truck and trailer. All of them have guns and some form of a guided missile on them but the point is they are supposed to be small maneuverable targets. I expect these to be relatively unharmed, not that they could do any real damage anyway.

Its more like a modified Coast Guard attack fleet for patrolling the Persian Gulf. I like to think of them as marine technicals.

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There has been a lot of strikes near Bandar Abbas. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if most got destroyed before getting out to sea. Kind of use it lose though even if they did because those boats aren't exactly designed for endurance.
 
MugolEx said:
Why is Turkey a NATO member still?
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Because, being in NATO is a double edged sword, they can reap the benefits of NATO, but they can't go to war with Greece or Israel without massive repercussions. The US and allies get base access for ME operations and the Turkish economy gets propped up. Its a mutual relationship. Far from perfect, but arguably better than the alternative.
 
Catch The Rainbow said:
Iranian hardened aircraft shelters got cleanly destroyed:
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How HAS meta has changed over the past 40ish years is fascinating. It's gone from 'you have to have these, you can't really target them with a war on' to 'okay they can be attritted' to 'it's a sign that says AIRPLANE HERE PLEASE BOMB'.
 
GoGoNoJo said:
.... We were in the Cold War when the Shah was in power. He got deposed in 1979. The Cold War ended in 1991. How do you not know this?
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Yeah and we arent anymore so why spread cold war propaganda. The Shah was hated because he was a foreign puppet, it had nothing to do with "muh commies".
 
So what's le plan? Throw a couple of missiles and chuckle and move on further pissing off people abroad making other countries know you will abruptly throw missiles at any country?

I know Iranians and Venezuelans are happy, and good for them. But what's the plan? Venezuela still has the same regime in power, so does Iran. War is not chess, you don't win by killing the king, the king will just get replaced.

I'm not saying boots should be on the ground for a forever war. I'm just saying, what's the point? you're basically just poking a country to make them angrier.
 
The Austin mass shooter was wearing a hoodie with "Property of Allah" written on it and a shirt with the Iranian flag on it:
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Source (Archive)
 
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