With prediction markets, heads they win, tails you lose:
Source (Archive)
Of course, this "policy" of not paying out on death is something they just made up:
Source (Archive)
and they even posted a message after Khamenei died implying that the death counts as a valid reason for him leaving office:
Source (Archive)
and the
terms (archive) say that it'll be resolved upon death:
Some people are saying they're going to weasel out by saying it wasn't confirmed by the deadline, but the House still loses by that rule.
Trump's tweet (archive) announcing his death was made at 4:37 PM ET on 2/28/26 (9:37 PM UTC, 1:07 AM 3/1/26 IRST, 6:37 AM 3/1/26 JST):
(Archive is in JST as only Megalodon.jp can archive Truth Social)
and our thread (and Israeli media) confirmed his death two hours before Trump did:
i24 confirming Khameinei’s death
Less than an hour later, one of their "Source Agencies", Reuters, confirmed his death:
Reuters and Axios are now also reporting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated by an Israeli strike this morning on Tehran.
more: Footage of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s corpse has been shown to Prime Minister Netanyahu, according to N12.
Fox and NBC also did so around the same time, with NBC speaking directly to Trump.
The only reference to a time zone in the terms is Eastern Time; it'd have to be time of the location of the leader AND the time of Trump's tweet (not the media articles) in order for them to not have to pay out the March bet (and no matter what they should have to pay out the April one):
Of course they have weasel language that lets them do whatever they want:
While Kalshi technically only makes money through fees, they have a trading subsidiary and sell preferential access to Wall Street firms, Either their internal trading firm or one of their partners had a big loss on this bet, big enough to be worth torching the entire company's reputation and risk being sued to protect.
People are pissed, especially because he's refunding an arbitrary amount and not the cost of the bets:
In summary, never use prediction markets. They're rigged like any other casino game.