Let’s wait and see how VA and NJ play out.
I'm 100 percent convinced the Dems kept the shutdown going up to today to use NJ and VA as a kind of mini referendum on where the public stands.
I am personally active in the NJ campaign and I'm cautiously optimistic about our (the Republicans) chances. But then again I swore we had it last time though. I like that we came 1 point short the last governors race and drug NJ to within 5 points in the general election when it was supposed to be a blowout, but that makes me think that fortification might come into play because it's been getting closer over the last 4 years. But on the other hand the democrats are more or less broke nationally and it's the first off year election and they haven't had time to really fundraise yet, so maybe it won't be so bad.
I've been making phone calls all month trying to reach out to undecided voters for the campaign. Fun fact- according to the data, there are 80,000 registered firearms owners in NJ that have no record of ever voting. What is wrong with these people?
I agree to a certain extent but just the way midterms have always worked, it’s almost always a safe bet it’s gonna go to the opposition party
Then you factor in that the opposition is the dems who always do good relatively in midterms.
Gubernatorial races are not a good predictor in my opinion because there is so many regional factors at play. National politics is only half the picture of a gubernatorial election
I don't know if the midterm switch will be a thing on the future. It definitely was true for the Neoliberal era, but we are going into a new party system so the old rules and maximum may or may not apply. Hell, in the new deal era the Dems just flat out held the house and it was the senate that would swing back and forth, so things do change after a while.
I haven’t followed the VA race that much but I do think the Republican Party in NJ has a very good chance
@Sensitive Young Man
Just curious why are you optimistic in this case?
Southern New Jersey dems have been breaking with tri state dems so who knows
The thing about NJ is that it's effectively 2 states jammed together and there's really 4 parties. Going from most liberal to most conservative it's: Northern Democrat, Northern Republican, Southern Democrat, and Southern Republician.
It was a surprise to no one when Van Drew made the jump to the Republicans. He saw the writing on the wall
The Northern versions match what the political landscape was in the early 2000s. Basic bitch shitlibs and lose with dignity Republicans.
The south half of the state is dependent on agriculture and tourism and alot of people are tied to small businesses. So the local democrats might be all for gibs but really want deregulation on small business, outside of the EBT Americans in Camden and Atlantic City.
On a personal note, I'm exhausted, and I'll be glad when it was over and hopefully tonight I'll be able to celebrate that NJ has fallen out of the blue wall.
