It's not about switching. People rarely change their minds. It's about collapse in support. Turn out does get effected by morale.
The MAGA movement will fail if it doesn't understand one thing: That getting Trump back in the White House wasn't them winning the war, it was winning a battle. They got a man in there behind enemy lines, they achieved some victories. They'll lose all those gains and more if they don't keep pushing, canvassing, getting more and more people into positions, appointing non-Democrat judges etc. etc.
The Establishment isn't going to let this happen again. One Trump is either gone or neutralised (and they just forced him into attacking Iran), they'll seal up every possible route that another Trump could get in. This is either the beginning of change or the last gasp of American democracy. There's not much in between.