2025 Israel vs Iran War

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scallion said:
Being anti-Muslim is more important than being pro-Israel
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>IMPLYING said:
I've only been pushed into defending Israel by happenstance since, if I was going to be on the side opposing Israel due to the Jewish tendency to value their own rather support their host nation
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Israel is selfish and has their own agenda, but they aren't the ones with "Death to America" murals on their buildings.

It doesn't matter (((why))) Iran wants America dead (which includes me, an American). They are hostile to me, rain or shine. I am under no obligation to grovel before them because of "But, but DA JOOS!"
 
The best and greatest said:
Does he really have a picture of himself on the wall for this? Its very distracting to me for some reason. Why is that there?
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That's not Khamenei, it's the other pedo who founded the Islamic republic. More confusingly still, he's named  Khomeini.

Btw that very guy said it's ok to fuck camels, cows and goats as long as you burn them afterwards. Just so you can understand the kind of geniuses making up Iran's ruling class.
 
Airstrikes in Lavizan (northeast Tehran):

 
Chunky Salsa said:
Why haven't they actually been preparing for a great war?
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Their strategic reality means preparing for a 'great war' is simply impossible. Look at where they are, look at where the other belligerents are, look at Iran's GDP and speedboat navy. Not enough people, not enough money, not enough shit, not enough loyalty to the regime, not enough regime credibility, not enough force projection, not enough internal cohesion to risk the Islamic Revolution and lose several armies (not brigades or battalions, armies) on a retarded land invasion through 2 entire other countries, both of which had the US in them, to rescue a bunch of feral Arabs from both the jews and themselves.

Sanctions did work. Iran's broke as fuck, way behind, and out of meaningful offensive resources 6 days into the war. and stuck using much older tech than the US could or what it can pirate and mass produce cheaply. Quantity has a quality of its own and all, and old tech did work, but new tech is made to disable and destroy old tech and increasing distances. Its space capabilities are low, its cyber capabilities are low. Its rocketry is impressive, but only considering their strategic situation. It's nothing shocking, they're not Russia, the US, or China. They're a middle sized country with no money or market access.

Investment in nuclear was the cheapest, safest, fastest bet to getting out from under sanctions and preparing for this great war. Build the nuclear capacity, with extreme determination. If this is stopped, it was really all for nothing, since their strategy is about exposing themselves to lots and lots of liabilities to confuse and refocus their opponents' actions. Make Israel fight Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthis, create panics and small but hard to stop problems--resources they'd use to stop you are spent stopping this, and you can focus on the main thrust, getting the bomb and joining the club of nations-you-can't-do-shit-to. Develop a strong and robust internal core military with the IRGC, working with foreign auxiliaries overseas and in diverse theaters. Some of this develops strategic interests like a land corridor to Israel, protecting Shias, suppressing nationalism from internal minorities like the Azeris. It even bolsters regime credibility, as performing well under duress for pursuing its own foreign policy course. People will support success, in any endeavor, even the export of Islamic, particularly Shia militancy. This keeps pressure on Iran's opponents from multiple fronts, but never enough to encourage direct confrontation. Maximum economic pressure from outside just makes the Iranian state harder to overthrow internally, there are no power bases outside of the state to draw support or mobilize from. In the meantime the IRGC gets to field test tactics and technology, build up prestige, and operate on a completely autonomous budget built from black markets. They build operational experience and discipline, and get that valuable thing armies love, an officer corps of brave veterans, built on the corpses of the less brave ones. They try to harden their facilities such that only nuclear weapons have yield enough to destroy them, making nuclear blackmail in reverse on their enemies, as they develop conventional nuclear blackmail which will enable a force buildup or even a more aggressive posture. George W Bush had extraordinary foresight and wisdom to authorize the program that developed the GBU-57, and Trump had the good sense of a wise and elderly mule when he authorized it for regular production.

10/7 blew it all up by starting the fight before nuclear talks concluded. Iran needed 20 years and a nuclear deal in place under Biden that was practically impossible to undo even if Trump won in 24. Since then they've been bluffing and hoping they won't get attacked seriously, that Israel wouldn't risk it all to end the risk before Iran had enriched stockpiles of weapons-grade uranium.
 
Pixy said:
Likely more expensive than whatever the Ukes have. You'd think they'd at least covertly liaise with the Ukrainians after their experience of having to defend against Iranian drones on a budget without an Iron Dome, at least to work on defense planning without ticking off their Russian-Israeli voters, but apparently not.

Perhaps it's a combination of fear of the Russian bogeyman, and more likely, hubris.
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Russian-Israelis generally don't like or care about Putin, they left Russia because of the antisemitism and collapse of the USSR. The category also includes people who emigrated from what is now Ukraine and Belarus, because most Jews living there lived in cities and spoke Russian, so if anything, they'd have divided loyalties if they had any connection to the countries they left.

In any case, Russian Israelis tend to prop up Likud because they value a strong, no nonsense position on national defense and look at the Israeli centrists and left as weak pussies too willing to accommodate the Palestinians.
 
SaidNoOneEver said:
to understand how bad it would be for fundamentalist end-timer muslim clerics to possess nuclear weapons.
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Want to bet if in a year we're still hearing "six more months until they have a nuke!!!!!!"

COME ON OUT YOU RAPIST said:
He really is morphing into Dubya. Those twitter posts about Israel having blackmail on him might be true after all.
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He was always controlled op, birthed by the alt-right, which was always heavily linked to intel.

EyeGuy said:
but he will only accept their unconditional surrender,
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This is a ruse. He gets plausible deniability demanding something they won't give. Then MAGA will say he's still anti-war while going to war. I'm guessing a good chance of US military action before end of June.
 
Lmao
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Harambe said:
10/7 blew it all up by starting the fight before nuclear talks concluded. Iran needed 20 years and a nuclear deal in place under Biden that was practically impossible to undo even if Trump won in 24. Since then they've been bluffing and hoping they won't get attacked seriously, that Israel wouldn't risk it all to end the risk before Iran had enriched stockpiles of weapons-grade uranium.
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That's a good point. Maybe the whole point of the agreement is to survive a different US office and provide stability or immunity to US shenanigans.
 
COME ON OUT YOU RAPIST said:
He really is morphing into Dubya. Those twitter posts about Israel having blackmail on him might be true after all.
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Is it really that hard to believe that a real estate guy doesn’t like that a counterparty in negotiations was intentionally stringing him along and daring him to do anything about it? People act like there was some big peace conference that the Jews blew up, when there were literally six rounds of talks none of which either side considered to make any real progress. The way I read the tea leaves, it seemed like Iran was making nonsense demands and terms that it knew were unacceptable.

For how much people think Trump is some animalistic figure with no superego, they somehow also think it’s impossible that Trump is personally annoyed and angry that he was being jerked around for months.
 
Trump on Netanyahu: I told him to keep going, he's a good man, I speak to him every day:

The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange hit a record high for the fourth day in a row as the Tehran Stock Exchange remains shut:
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