Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Rome's rightful successor]

A gay blog journo is asking

Spoiler

View attachment 3357732 View attachment 3357731View attachment 3357733View attachment 3357734

Oh now I remember who he is.

"More bad news for Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk.
Mariana Bezuglaya, a deputy from the Servant of the People party, just assumed command in this area.
This was condemned by the Ukrainian Nazi military propagandist Yuri Butusov.
He accuses the commanders who were under Zelensky's influence of "inappropriate use of special forces for unprofitable adventures."
By the way, it was Bezuglaya who offered to shoot all deserters on the spot.
It remains a mystery where the entire Ukrainian command staff has gone. However, the answer to it is also simple."

When the jews are the cruel ones and the nazis are the more humane ones.

 

[The Ugly One]

Thing is, until Russia conducts a mass mobilization, I'm not seeing a scenario where Ukraine runs out of bodies first. Russia's finally shifted out of the cheeki breeki bullshit into their traditional attrition meat grinder tactics, but the math isn't adding up for them. Russia has about 1 million men in active service across all branches, of whom a significant portion can't be sent to Ukraine due to other strategic concerns. Chechnya and the breakaways can bolster this somewhat, possibly even as far as another million if they push it hard enough, but Syria and Belarus appear to be trying very hard to not get dragged into this to any significant degree.

So, even in the most optimistic scenario, Russia has 2 million men to throw at Ukraine as long as they keep it up as is. For comparison, 2 million is a hair under 5% of Ukraine's total population, or roughly 10% of its male population. That's certainly a high percentage to have mobilized, but the Soviet Union got at least twice that percentage into uniform during the Second World War. If you apply similar numbers to Ukraine, they can potentially wind up with 4 million men for the Russians to grind through. Manpower isn't the whole story, but if we treat these as peer forces trading roughly blow-for-blow, then Russia's usual playbook just isn't going to work here.

Raising manpower becomes much more difficult when the population is demoralized. Taking enemy cities is an important part of convincing the native population that signing up for the military just means you're going to die, while the enemy gets what it wants. Taking them back, or successfully routing an enemy trying to take them, raises morale. In WW2, victories at Stalingrad and Kursk made it much easier for the USSR to field a massive military.

Point is there's no guarantee. Pushing the Russians back from Kiev was a big win for the Ukie war effort, but they've only seen setbacks since then.

 

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

Thing is, until Russia conducts a mass mobilization, I'm not seeing a scenario where Ukraine runs out of bodies first. Russia's finally shifted out of the cheeki breeki bullshit into their traditional attrition meat grinder tactics, but the math isn't adding up for them. Russia has about 1 million men in active service across all branches, of whom a significant portion can't be sent to Ukraine due to other strategic concerns. Chechnya and the breakaways can bolster this somewhat, possibly even as far as another million if they push it hard enough, but Syria and Belarus appear to be trying very hard to not get dragged into this to any significant degree.

So, even in the most optimistic scenario, Russia has 2 million men to throw at Ukraine as long as they keep it up as is. For comparison, 2 million is a hair under 5% of Ukraine's total population, or roughly 10% of its male population. That's certainly a high percentage to have mobilized, but the Soviet Union got at least twice that percentage into uniform during the Second World War. If you apply similar numbers to Ukraine, they can potentially wind up with 4 million men for the Russians to grind through. Manpower isn't the whole story, but if we treat these as peer forces trading roughly blow-for-blow, then Russia's usual playbook just isn't going to work here.

Thing is, russian tactics rarely relied on sheer manpower. They did rely on them during the winter war, and once they dropped the retarded strategy of advancing through isthmus and all of the defences that finns could have, they won fairly quickly. Up until late 43 - early 44 germans had numerical advantage on eastern front, in no small part due to routing milions of soldiers in first months of invasion.
Ukrainians can conscript masses of troops, sure. But what are we seeing right now is not masses of troops fighting it out like at frontlines of ww1. On one side you've got ukrainians, who at this point are mostly infantry-focused (they still have mechanized assets, just not enough), fighting against an enemy who has air, armor and artillery supremacy. You can keep throwing bodies at them, but at some point they'd be risking a mass mutiny. They're already forcing untrained conscripts to donbas, and it doesn't seem like the quality of troops is improving quick enough to replace losses.

 

[Based Boy]

Counterpoint:

View attachment 3358109

Unian (Large pro-Ukrainian source) says that this is 99% Ukrainian plain.

---

Results of bombing of Donetsk today(Ukrainian Armed Forces). Claimed to be building materials storage burning.

Results of bombing of NKMZ factory in Kramatorsk(RF Armed Forces).

Results of bombing of Panytinsky wagon repair plant somewhere in Kharkov Region(RF Armed Forces).

And it seems that Russia has established parallel administration in Kharkov Region.

Spoiler: Translation

[Vitaliy Ganchev
Head of provisional civilian administration of liberated territories of Kharkov Region.]
Vitaliy Gancharov(VG): As of today city of Kharkov, for now, is not under our control. The only big district, that is acceptably intact and sufficiently developed, during all of our combined troubles, is Kupinsky District. I propose, right now, on the base of Kupinsky District, specifically in the city of Kupinsk, to form provisional civilian administration of Kharkov Region and, also, from top to bottom, vertically, to form provisional civilian administrations of districts and towns. Everybody agree?
Chorus: Agree.
VG: Decision unanimous, about formation of provisional civilian administration of the Region and further vertically.
Secretary: On a voluntary basis, considering political, social and economical... humanitarian and political situation that has developed in Kharkov Region, by members of the meeting, representing the interests of the people, expressing the opinion of citizens who live on it's territory, decision was made. For the purpose of management of political, social-economic and humanitarian processes on the territory of Kharkov Region, to form provisional civilian administration of Kharkov Region. Empower provisional civilian administration of Kharkov Region with functions and powers of the executive and legislative branches. By way of open vote elect the Head of provisional civilian administration of Kharkov Region. ... By unanimous decision of the meeting, Ganchev Vitaliy Konstontinovich elected as the Head of provisional civilian administration.
VG: Thank you for your trust. I congratulate you with making of this very important political decision. Today it is the only right one. Provisional civilian administration of Kharkov Region will be formed, further decisions would be made, of administrative and managerial nature, about creation of provisional civilian administrations of districts, at least for those who are already under our control. I hope for your support, support of the people. Hope for fruitful work. And i believe in help from Russian Federation first of all, of course, and our neighboring fraternal republics. We will cooperate with you and with them to make life, first to establish it, and than to make it better.

Are they planning to annex the whole Region or did they establish it simply to more efficiently govern territories under occupation? That is for you to decide.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

It's looking a lot like Ukraine has made some gains over the past few days, and it doesn't LOOK like Russia are doing a tactical retreat to simply counter them once cut off.

Looks to me like the battle lines have been drawn up and this is pretty much where we're going to be stuck with for months with a few metres one way and then the other.

Any lines drawn now are not likely to last for "months". Either Russia pulls forces back to refocus on offensive operations elsewhere, or the Ukrainians slowly get pushed back around the outside of the stalled areas by Russian air, armor and artillery superiority in the area until holding the frozen area becomes an untenable salient. Its not going to be easy for either side, but freezing where they are now is of no benefit to either.

Not sure why everyone is so keen to declare "And this is the point the lines are drawn" when the entire conflict has continued to be fairly mobile and fluid.

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

Not sure why everyone is so keen to declare "And this is the point the lines are drawn" when the entire conflict has continued to be fairly mobile and fluid.

Because it makes me look smart when I'm right and if I'm wrong it doesn't matter because the news and drama overwhelms people mocking me for being wrong.

 

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

Any lines drawn now are not likely to last for "months". Either Russia pulls forces back to refocus on offensive operations elsewhere, or the Ukrainians slowly get pushed back around the outside of the stalled areas by Russian air, armor and artillery superiority in the area until holding the frozen area becomes an untenable salient. Its not going to be easy for either side, but freezing where they are now is of no benefit to either.

Not sure why everyone is so keen to declare "And this is the point the lines are drawn" when the entire conflict has continued to be fairly mobile and fluid.

In a year's time, Putin will still be consolidating remaining forces and lowering his goals to "occupying the dumpster behind a McDonalds in Luhansk." Russian sporting goods stores will be stripped of baseball bats and bike helmets to equip the troops. The age limit for enlistment into the Russian military will be raised to 120.

Thing is, russian tactics rarely relied on sheer manpower. They did rely on them during the winter war, and once they dropped the retarded strategy of advancing through isthmus and all of the defences that finns could have, they won fairly quickly. Up until late 43 - early 44 germans had numerical advantage on eastern front, in no small part due to routing milions of soldiers in first months of invasion.
Ukrainians can conscript masses of troops, sure. But what are we seeing right now is not masses of troops fighting it out like at frontlines of ww1. On one side you've got ukrainians, who at this point are mostly infantry-focused (they still have mechanized assets, just not enough), fighting against an enemy who has air, armor and artillery supremacy. You can keep throwing bodies at them, but at some point they'd be risking a mass mutiny. They're already forcing untrained conscripts to donbas, and it doesn't seem like the quality of troops is improving quick enough to replace losses.

"Ukrainian troops will mass mutiny" says the military that routinely runs over its own officers to avoid getting slaughtered by the Ukrainians.

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Russian sporting goods stores will be stripped of baseball bats and bike helmets to equip the troops. The age limit for enlistment into the Russian military will be raised to 120.

I would pay good money to watch an 85 year old Russian wearing a mohawk spiked bike helmet with a baseball bat jump into a Foreign Legion trench and smash in some trannies skull while she tries to tiktok the abusive conditions of trench warfare.

 

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

I would pay good money to watch an 85 year old Russian wearing a mohawk spiked bike helmet with a baseball bat jump into a Foreign Legion trench and smash in some trannies skull while she tries to tiktok the abusive conditions of trench warfare.

Nigga you just ripped off the plot of "Mad Max: Fury Road"

 

[potato fan]

hoping for some enlightening commentary about this

https://twitter.com/TriTro29/status/1533745212010516481

old diesel engines can run on cooking oil with no problem (well your ride will smell like it's been in a deep frier, but that's about it)

It's worth mentioning that this wouldn't be the first friendly fire incident in the Ukrainian Air Force, in the first days of the war, a jet was shot down in Kyiv and hit an apartment building and it was later confirmed that it was FF. Fairly forgivable considering how chaotic the start of this war was.

View attachment 3358194

Anyways, that jet in particular was confirmed Ukrainian. Russian MoD usually reports this kind of thing so they're either reporting with delay (not surprising) or this was shot down and news of it hadn't reached them yet.

Edit: See @kuuu reply to this post

View attachment 3358206

Edit: The Russian MoD has taken to telegram to officially DEBOONK the claims that it was a Russian plane.


View attachment 3358306

they deboonk it the same way snopes debunks things- by changing the claim they are debunking. Obviously it was not a single keel su-25, but it could as well have been two keel su-27 or one of the newer models in the family. Still quite possible it was a FF.

Greece government supported sanctions against the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church.
It's 11/10 on the scale of how cucked their government is.

leader of ROC is all for this war, trully what Christ would have wanted

Meanwhile forced mobilisation in Doneck continues: soldiers round up men on the streets and in malls. Soon the "donbabwean man in age between 15 and 65" species will be an endangered one

 

[draggs]

You're a jive-shuckin nigger only good for entertainment if you think either side is anywhere close to victory or to the bottom of their barrel in men and equipment.

 

[kuuu]

Achtung! — loud and gay music.

"Russian Spetsnaz working behind enemy lines in Zaporozhye province."

ZSU hunter

Работа российского спецназа в тылу противника в Запорожской области

t.me

Footage of close infantry fighting is something else.

---

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1533831638890733570

Can't believe they had to bother some girl during period to smear it on some dusty Wagner patches.
Do Wagner mercs even wear chevrons like these? X to doubt.

 

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

Achtung! — loud and gay music.

"Russian Spetsnaz working behind enemy lines in Zaporozhye province."
16545402192780.mov

ZSU hunter

Работа российского спецназа в тылу противника в Запорожской области

t.me

Footage of close infantry fighting is something else.

---

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1533831638890733570

View attachment 3359205
Can't believe they had to bother some girl during period to smear it on some dusty Wagner patches.
Do Wagner mercs even wear Chevrons like these? X to doubt.

40 cents on aliexpress, take it or leave it.

 

[Givi]

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1533831638890733570

View attachment 3359205
Can't believe they had to bother some girl during period to smear it on some dusty Wagner patches.
Do Wagner mercs even wear chevrons like these? X to doubt.

This guy is such a LARPing faggot lol, everyone who's following this war should know that Wagner is operating nearly exclusively near Popasna, having recently taken Pylypchatyne.

Does he think mercenaries willingly go around tagging themselves as mercenaries when they can easily just pretend to be Russian regulars and NOT get lawfully executed if captured? Here's the most recent picture of Wagner personnel, in/near the territory of the LPR. Try to find the "execute if captured" patch.

 

[kuuu]

 

[prolapsed_cranium]

So it seems that a politician is commanding the Severodonetsk area since the 3rd or 4th of June.
It's also mentioned in the post, this is the person who introduced the bill that would allow it to execute deserters on the spot (it got rejected)
What possibly could go wrong?

"More bad news for Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk.
Mariana Bezuglaya, a deputy from the Servant of the People party, just assumed command in this area.
This was condemned by the Ukrainian Nazi military propagandist Yuri Butusov.
He accuses the commanders who were under Zelensky's influence of "inappropriate use of special forces for unprofitable adventures."
By the way, it was Bezuglaya who offered to shoot all deserters on the spot.
It remains a mystery where the entire Ukrainian command staff has gone. However, the answer to it is also simple."
View attachment 3357771

Masno

💢More bad news for Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk. Mariana Bezuglaya, a deputy from the Servant of the People party, just assumed command in this area. This was condemned by the Ukrainian Nazi military propagandist Yuri Butusov. He accuses the commanders who were under Zelensky's...

t.me

View attachment 3357773

The use of commissars.......Zelensky is getting desperate

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

The use of commissars.......Zelensky is getting desperate

Sounds like propaganda, a misrepresentation of fact. I wouldn't be surprised if a politician was given unilateral control over the civilian resources in a region, to coordinate civil defense and evacuation and aid measures. Giving a politician actual command authority over military forces beyond "I need you to buy time for this site to evacuate" is a great way to find your politician having died of terrible communications protocol leading to the HQ taking an artillery round right after everyone else left. After all, a politician would easily forget to turn off an identifying wireless devices GPS.

 

[Narcotics]

I wonder what are the odds that we see a massive russian movilization push for ukraine, i remember all the hype western media Made around may 9th about putler declaring it around those days, but now it looks like it's a stalemate with both sides taking small towns and blowing up bridges.

 

[Audit]

I wonder what are the odds that we see a massive russian movilization push for ukraine, i remember all the hype western media Made around may 9th about putler declaring it around those days, but now it looks like it's a stalemate with both sides taking small towns and blowing up bridges.

Russia appears to be content with the current strategy. Slowly grinding away at Ukrainian positions will always be in their favor if they retain the artillery and air space advantage. Only reason for a massive general mobilization would be if they wanted to just zerg rush. They tried that at the start of the war to mixed results. Their current strategy is more dependent on blanketing enemy positions with artillery and moving in once they think the positions are weakened. If the reports in this thread are to be believed, the Ukes are taking heavy casualties from the artillery so the "to the last Ukrainian" meme may have some merit on the frontlines.

Wait until the battle of Sieverodonestk is over to make big predictions. The Ukes could end up dumping far too many of their reserves trying to retake the city and leave themselves in a vulnerable position elsewhere. This is the largest urban combat we've seen in the war since Mariupol. It's similarly a major manufacturing hub in a highly valuable region. Neither side is willing to let go of it or its sister city without a fight. The Ukrainians just have the nasty disadvantage of being forced to watch their back flanks to avoid getting encircled. Those small villages may end up sealing the fate of the battle for the two cities.

 

[Oxyjen]

I wonder what are the odds that we see a massive russian movilization push for ukraine, i remember all the hype western media Made around may 9th about putler declaring it around those days, but now it looks like it's a stalemate with both sides taking small towns and blowing up bridges.

They tried that on day one. By day 3 the offensive was stuck, abandoned and out of food and fuel. It wasn’t “western hype” it was just shit poor military planning and logistics.