Trump 2016

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Who do you guys actually think will win the nomination? And don't say Rubio. Rubio will never get it. He'll win the Florida primary but thats it.
 
I think the likeliest candidates for the Republican nomination are Jeb, Rubio, and Cruz. Hopefully saner heads will prevail and Jeb will end up winning it.
 
Jeb's campaign is pretty much torpedo'd at this point. Cruz and Rubio is who I'd be throwing my weight behind. Trump isn't a good national choice.
 
I think anyone who bothers to go vote in a Republican primary is extremely likely to vote for the Republican candidate, whoever it is. If Trump loses the primary, I don't think you'll lose a meaningful amount of Republicans.¹

I do think Trump has significantly more support from independents and Democrats than a typical Republican. This makes sense because, as mentioned, he's not really about a political philosophy. However, I don't think it would be a net loss to the party. As many indies/Dems as they would gain, I think they'd turn off even more than that. He's just very polarizing in general.

I think that if Rubio can avoid early elimination, he should be able to win it. Keep in mind that the party leaders despise Cruz as well. I think they will only be willing to put up with Cruz if they're forced to choose between either him or Trump.

I would not rule out Christie, either. He is not polling well overall right now, but you can basically throw that out the window once the votes actually start. It's easy to envision a scenario where Christie does really well in New Hampshire, and then momentum kicks in. He's certainly one of the Republicans' most "electable" candidates, IMO. And although crazy things do tend to happen early in the Republican campaign (especially in Iowa), the electorate always seems to come around to who can actually win.

Bush doesn't have an audience, IMO. If you want a moderate, there are better options; if you want someone electable, there are better options (for one thing, being named "Bush" really hurts one's electability.) I don't see a path for him at all.

¹ That is, assuming that Trump isn't still an option for them in the general election. I don't anticipate Trump running as an independent, because he can't realistically win that way and that is what he cares about.
 
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samoajones said:
I would not rule out Christie, either. He is not polling well overall right now, but you can basically throw that out the window once the votes actually start. It's easy to envision a scenario where Christie does really well in New Hampshire, and then momentum kicks in. He's certainly one of the Republicans' most "electable" candidates, IMO.
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Bridgegate negates every advantage Christie has, it haunts him consistenty even when it's not mentioned. Should Christie actually rise in the polls Bridgegate will be brought up even more just to knock him down. Jeb looks weak and is not going to win the nomination. The idea of Trump winning the nomination seems weird as shit to me, but then again if a couple of months earlier you would have told me he'd do as good as he's doing now I'd be laughting at you.

I also think that Cruz has a good shot, he seems to be doing well in the polls and was good enough of a campaigner to win an upset in the 2012 Texas Republican Senatorial primary, I wouldn't count him out. And then there's Rubio, his poll numbers in both Iowa and New Hampshire look relatlively good to me so I can't rule him out. All other candidates seem hopeless to me and if they're actually in this race in order to win they're wasting their time.
 
TrippinKahlua said:
Who do you guys actually think will win the nomination? And don't say Rubio. Rubio will never get it. He'll win the Florida primary but thats it.
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Trump honestly. I don't pay attention to politics much, or at least as much as your average voter and he's the only person you ever really hear about. And unlike me, it's possible his rhetoric sounds pretty fucking appealing to many republican voters especially with what at first glance seems like a rise in Islamic Extremist attacks in the western world.
 
Out of everyone, the one who deserves the Presidency the least is Chris Christie.

Sold right out to Obama at the last minute, who was just looking for a quick boost just before the 2012 election.
 
TrippinKahlua said:
Out of everyone, the one who deserves the Presidency the least is Chris Christie.

Sold right out to Obama at the last minute, who was just looking for a quick boost just before the 2012 election.
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So--working with the President after a major disaster hits his state is selling out? If anything, I'd say it could get him some bipartisan support. He probably can't win, but that's not why.
 
Let's not forget that a presidential candidate's choice of a running mate can also effect his/her chances of winning. (Palin is partially to blame for McCain's loss.) If Trump got Carson or Santorum to run with him, that could be a problem.
 
Yaoi Huntress Earth said:
Let's not forget that a presidential candidate's choice of a running mate can also effect his/her chances of winning. (Palin is partially to blame for McCain's loss.) If Trump got Carson or Santorum to run with him, that could be a problem.
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I kind of feel that in the unlikely event of a Trump nomination he would double down on some kind of "outsider" figure.
 
APerson said:
So--working with the President after a major disaster hits his state is selling out? If anything, I'd say it could get him some bipartisan support. He probably can't win, but that's not why.
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People feel like he sold out because of shit like this

This fat asshole will say anything for votes. He pretty much abandoned helping his state as soon as he put his bid in to the race.
 
Trump would have to utterly romp all over everyone to be able to dictate a liability VP to the party. More likely, in the scenario where he wins, that will mean he made enough concessions to the party elites to convince them not to go to the mattresses to stop him. So then he's not going to nominate a crazy VP.

I don't think Bridgegate is a big thing. For one thing, it broke too early. Republicans have been defending Christie on it for years. They'd be unconvincing if they turned on him about it now. But even if it broke now, I don't think people would see the events as disqualifying for the Presidency. Hell, it's not nearly as bad as Hillary being at best careless with classified information, and that hasn't been a big thing.

Definitely agree that Republicans think Christie is too close to Obama, and that that's one of several things that makes the primary tougher for him than the general.
 
People who are embarrassed about supporting Trump are embarrassed about supporting FREEDOM
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Oh, and apparently polls can be inaccurate depending on how and where the questions were asked. Who would've thought it?

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...mbarrassment-of-supporting-donald-trump/42136
 
After all of the comments on facebook, I've come up with a new drinking game.

  1. Go to Facebook or any site that allows comments.
  2. For every person you see saying something along the lines of "Trump can't be bought!"/"(Trump will) make America great again!"/"Trump just tells it like it is, GO TRUMP!", take a drink.
  3. Die of alcohol poisoning.
 
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