La Palma is rumbling - What are the implications of a 40 foot Tsunami along the east coast?

  • Want to keep track of this thread?
    Accounts can bookmark posts, watch threads for updates, and jump back to where you stopped reading.
    Create account
Hot Cup of Joe said:
Yeah I can see little bits falling away and then a half decent slip in to the sea, but for the whole area to just up and fuck off for an ocean dip...I can't see it.

I hope it does. I hope the island is evacuated, the volcano pulls all of the land/earth from under the surface, spews it out on top, and the whole island falls in to the sea in one huge slide, killing no locals. Then I want to watch a 20m wave flood a bit of london, wales, cornwall and France. Nothing too bad, just enough to sodden the boot soles. Meanwhile a 100m wave hits America/Mexico and drowns the entire shoreline, again, everyone evacuated, no deaths.

I just want to see some major destruction from a natural disaster that isn't cheating like a space rock.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't mind it taking out Washington Dc.

If it could stop there...great but alas my Florida body will be found on the shores of Texas if this happens...

I suppose maybe with enough time i could get one of the big hills in brooksville and camp out and maybe survive
 
I'm just gonna say again that aside from the big main deal of "not just nyc and florida but the entire east US getting fucked with mass graves" Is not a good situation, there's also the fact that if the East Coast dies via megatsunami wiping it away America's early history other than what's dictated by the west coast elites in california's bay area and the politicians that have been dead set on eroding history, furthering into the "live in the pod eat bugs everything in the past is scary and is racist" thing people shitpost about.Somehow despite governments on the east coast taking down war memorials and time capsules and replacing them with current year shit the overall historical stuff other than those right now is surviving-ish with a few exceptions due to the floyd riots last year. There's a ton of places where a lot of colonial era buildings and small museums dedicated to the history of the area exist all over the fucking east coast it's fucking insane how dense the lore of the eastern coast of the US is. I've spent my whole life occasionally finding out new weird shit about the region I didn't already know.

Volcano eruption looks cool though for real.
 
There’s a “Two in the pink, one in the stink” joke or a Yaniv punchline here somewhere.

5C29BAFA-B81B-4B0C-B2E8-9AE07C3D232F.jpeg
 
The Lawgiver said:
the fact that if the East Coast dies via megatsunami wiping it away America's early history other than what's dictated by the west coast elites in california's bay area and the politicians that have been dead set on eroding history, furthering into the "live in the pod eat bugs everything in the past is scary and is racist" thing people shitpost about.
Click to expand...
Between the police stopping people from flying drones around, the lack of media coverage, the "experts" telling us there's nothing to see here... every time this thing gets explodey I start wondering if it's natural or if it's being tampered with.
 
T0oCoolFool said:
The volcano is really spewing lava tonight. This isn't good right? That looks like a fuck load of lava and it looks like it's being thrown up in the air much further than previous nights.
Click to expand...
It's a good thing the volcano hadn't slowed down before the intensity increase, which would've narrowed or blocked the lava pipes. And also there hasn't been any water interactions, causing phreatic explosions. Explosive white clouds of steam are an indicator of that.

La Palma has also reawakened my childhood autistic obsession with volcanoes, remembering how much I've forgotten.
 
FatalTater said:
Between the police stopping people from flying drones around, the lack of media coverage, the "experts" telling us there's nothing to see here... every time this thing gets explodey I start wondering if it's natural or if it's being tampered with.
Click to expand...
They're getting drones so the drones won't get caught up and mess up some aircraft evacuation routes.
 
Airport has been shut down because of ash and smoke.

While I'm willing to admit that there may be perfectly legit reasons for saying "no drones" I am also one paranoid beeyotch.

I heard that the local news stations weren't showing real-time damages and film of evacuees out of respect for people going through this, and that seems pretty cool of them. It would suck to walk past a TV and see your home and life's work going up in smoke.
 
Hot Cup of Joe said:
There's a shit ton of new rock sat on top of the island, smaller slides are expected, are they not? I can't see the whole thing just giving away and sliding off like pizza topping.
Click to expand...
It is an unlikely scenario of a sheer collapse - at this stage. But the bulk of the collapse would come from what is below the ocean, the island is merely what we see, but below the surface it is quite steep and the collapse hypothetical relies on the majority of the sheer to come from what is beneath the ocean surface which would cause massive displacement and indeed a Tsunami of biblical proportions.

There is a surface fault that appeared after the last eruption and the debate is fierce on whether or not the fault indicates that a sheer collapse will happen in the (now) future. The problem is the island has been hard to evaluate in terms of what's beneath the surface of the island but the recent magma flows have shed light and given the instrumentation the ability to see things they did not before.

If indeed Magma continues to build near the surface (3km), then the pressure can indeed result in a massive sheer. The diagram I did is rough but it shows what people miss - the island is very steeped beneath the ocean surface and a sheer is one day going to happen - the question is, is there enough going on NOW to cause this sheer. The estimated displacement is measured in cubic miles and possibilities from 5-100 are possible. The potential is immense.

The blue is obviously the ocean surface and the Red line indicates where a sheer is possible. The graph is not to scale but the idea is communicated.
value3-2.jpg
 
Here is something better which shows some of the deposits of previous landslides of the island. As one can see the size and scope of the previous landslides is simply...on a scale that is hard to comprehend. Several of the graphs - including LS3 show the slope that is extant and just how long it is - and this gives some idea of how immense some of the landslides have been. Can you imagine the force it took to send this amount of debris over 50 miles underwater - we are talking of forces hard to comprehend that are almost meaningless in human scale.


Hope this helps.

Screen Shot 2021-09-26 at 9.47.09 PM.png


Screen Shot 2021-09-26 at 9.46.39 PM.png


Screen Shot 2021-09-26 at 9.46.06 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-09-26 at 9.44.40 PM.png
 
Hot Cup of Joe said:
I just want to see some major destruction from a natural disaster that isn't cheating like a space rock.
Click to expand...
Yeah I really wanna see real footage of a megatsunami, there was one that ocurred in the 50s on Lituya Bay, Alaska (also caused by a massive landslide), the wave was so fucking gigantic it washed away trees that were 1720 ft high up in the mountains, just imagine the kind of insane Hollywood disaster movie shit we'd see from the Canary Islands.
 
DapperShark said:
Yeah I really wanna see real footage of a megatsunami, there was one that ocurred in the 50s on Lituya Bay, Alaska (also caused by a massive landslide), the wave was so fucking gigantic it washed away trees that were 1720 ft high up in the mountains, just imagine the kind of insane Hollywood disaster movie shit we'd see from the Canary Islands.
Click to expand...
Yeah the Canary Islands would be seeing some crazy shit regardless.

Whether or not the wave even has 5m height by the time it reaches North America is a matter of heavy debate, on the other hand.
 
And just so we all get a grasp on this island, an eruption is unlikely to cause a landslide, but magma building below and NOT coming through is more likely to cause a slip than the eruption. Magma flows can cause eruptions and cause a sheer failure.

Why? Because magma that can't escape expands and pushes against the rock. It is theorized that while we see what looks to be solid rock, is actually (when looking at the previous slips), is really just unstable rock with no real holding power, thus the repeating failure. Imagine your back yard where you have a hill and you dig some dirt up and throw it on top of a depression to "fill" it and the next time it rains it just washes out. Same thing. Loose rock versus solid lava on the East - the West is where it will give way; and has in the past. The ground is likely fractured also with layers of loose sediment that mean at the end of the day it simply is easier to push against than the East of the Island.

Also the groundwater goes down to the Magma and expands the Island Interior. Because the land on the west has repeated failures and is "looser" it allows the ground water more ability to penetrate deeper. Now, if the western side is weaker, then the expansion keeps every few hundred thousand years pushing against the island, but It is only the weaker West Flank that moves anywhere - like a tooth infection that shoves your tooth away because the jaw bone is stronger.

The multiple vents opening up also indicates that the pressure below is indeed building and vast crevices that exist in the already weakened flank have allowed magma to flow through weak points. They will be looking to see if any vents open up below the surface because that could certainly spell doom.

So the ingredients are there indeed. If Mother Earth decides to push up enough magma and the chambers beneath opt to expand rather than burst it out the top, then the west flank will become more unstable.

So while it is true to say the Eruption would unlikely be the cause of the collapse, the same thing that causes the eruption (magma flowing up) will be the primary cause of a possible collapse.

Stay tuned, and remember, if it happens you'll probably be the only human beings in the history of humans to ever bear witness to it; and you may be the last as it might not happen again for millennia.
 
DapperShark said:
Yeah I really wanna see real footage of a megatsunami, there was one that ocurred in the 50s on Lituya Bay, Alaska (also caused by a massive landslide), the wave was so fucking gigantic it washed away trees that were 1720 ft high up in the mountains, just imagine the kind of insane Hollywood disaster movie shit we'd see from the Canary Islands.
Click to expand...
You wouldn't see the tsunami until it hits the shallows, out at deep sea it barely makes bigger than normal waves. But as the depth decreases, the waves start to pile up.
 
The golden neckbeard said:
I get that viewpoint but a lot of good people die also is the scenario they want

I'm just not for it but its fun to hypothesize the aftermath of such an event, the only thing I see happening is a power shift to the west coast which would be way worse. All the military assets out that way would just re-assert control over here and we would be ruled by Sacramento instead of DC. Nobody questions anything anymore so the braindead footsoldiers would just obey

A way worse outcome in my opinion. Ill take the softer slower tyranny of the east coast globo homo over the west coast.
Click to expand...
Well, Kudo's on your thread ( which you started BEFORE the eruption even happened I might add! ) and others on the Tsunami coverage are getting enough attention that news outlets have now had to bring on consultants to all tell the public that there is "no chance" of a Tsunami happening with this eruption. Which of course is folly given none of them can predict what will happen. Sure, they are probably safe making this bet but in any event, they are guessing.

I hear the lava has started to increase in it's flow rate and we may see it hit the ocean in a day or 2.

I'd say within 7-10 days there will be sufficient data on hand to model what is happening the surface and with ground measurements to make an assessment of what can be reasonably predicted with the island's west flank.
 
Menotaur said:
Well, Kudo's on your thread ( which you started BEFORE the eruption even happened I might add! ) and others on the Tsunami coverage are getting enough attention that news outlets have now had to bring on consultants to all tell the public that there is "no chance" of a Tsunami happening with this eruption. Which of course is folly given none of them can predict what will happen. Sure, they are probably safe making this bet but in any event, they are guessing.

I hear the lava has started to increase in it's flow rate and we may see it hit the ocean in a day or 2.

I'd say within 7-10 days there will be sufficient data on hand to model what is happening the surface and with ground measurements to make an assessment of what can be reasonably predicted with the island's west flank.
Click to expand...


Thanks, I did my homework on this. I put the odds of a complete collapse at 1 in a 100...possibly as close as 1 in 50 if eruptions continue longer than 3 months. I used alot information from Macguire and days research to come to that number. I also watched the magma move close to the surface a week before even /Pol was talking. You could tell something was happening because the depth of the quakes were moving upwards with consistency.


***Update***

The main lava tube is blocked as of early this morning

Expect Lava to start emerging elsewhere on the slope

This is gonna get interesting
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom