Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

Charnel Ground said:

Like Null said upthread, why haven't we been doing it this way the whole time? I was worried for a bit, but it looks like they're actually following through on not getting into "stupid wars and dumb conflicts" by striking so precisely and decisively.

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This will be buried, but you ask a good question and it deserves a solid answer. Hopefully this covers things for you and any other archeologists that dig up this post buried in shitposts

To be massively and unneedingly fair to previous leaders, it wasn't really possible until just now.

they didn't do anything to try to make it possible, but they didn't want a collapsed Iran destabilizing the region.

It is generally a bad idea to attack enemy leadership. There is a reason why in the west assassinations on political and even military leaders is frowned on. with intact leadership, you can get an enemy to withdraw, stand down or surrender. Without it, you may have to fight them to the last man, which while they are all dead it also means more of your troops are dead.
Even if a leader is able to take control of the headless snake, they are just going be turbo pissed at you more likely than not and wanting to take revenge. that's not good. So in general, its just not done.
There are some exceptions to this. If an enemy leader is effective or charismatic enough its worth the risk (see: Terrorist leaders) or in this case if there another leader, one you like better, ready to take power, and be more favorable to you.

Previously there was never that leader. There is now. "But the Shah is like 60 and was alive." Pahlavi (the son of the last shah) didn't have nation wide support before. He really still doesn't; the protestors are uniting under the slogan 'bring back the shah' but the Shah has no on-the-ground contacts to help install him to leadership of the country. No ministers, no administrators, no generals are openly declaring for the Shah. He is just a figurehead at this point.

Why you are seeing this happen NOW and not before is because shit is so bad in Iran people want any leadership other than what they have.

Here have one of the least annoying influencer faggots explain it, courtesy of one of the posters from the thread before everything went faggot. but to tl;dr, Iran in the past century has increased its population 10x what it was before and they are running out of water.

Basically theyare in an arid region and began growing water-intensive cash crops. This plus a 10X increase inpopulation means they have depleted their aquifiers. What water resources they do have have been wasted by the regime to run hydroelectic to mine bitcoin and to provide civil projects to funnel money to regime insides. These projects have ruined a good portion of what water resources Iran does have. It is self own on a national scale.
It is so bad, the capital will likely run out of water to sustain its population by June.

this is why despite the Iranian government killing an estimated 40,000 protestors, the people are still turning out into the streets.

Let me put a bit of a finer point on things.
Iran's poplation is 90 million. they are one of the most populous countries in the region. If Iran collapses, there is no telling who will emerge with the reigns, but they will have a large population at their disposal. They might have decided to attack US forces in Iraq or Afghnistan, they might go north into the caucuses, they go south into Saudi Arabia. They could close the strait of Hormuz and bring global oil transit to a stand still.
Even if Persian Hitler doesn't emerge and its just factional internal fighitng, a civil war involving 90 million people is going to make a lot of casualties.

this is all a long way to say
If you are going to regime change Iran, you need to ensure there is leadership ready to take over the country or you will have a massive humanitarian crisis on your hand that is likely to spread to neighboring countries and maybe the whole region

Obama, Muslim cuck he is, didn't do anything in support of the last 'great protests' in 2009 because there was no one to take over. It was viewed likely that you'd topple the Ayatollah only to have him replaced by someone much worse.
The IRGC are retards waging proxy war, but you can at least negotiate with them and eventually get them to see region. They don't want to martyr their families and their country just because.

---

Now, get out your corkboard, pins, and red thread because what we're going to get into now is a web of unintended consequences.

BACKGRUND/BUILD UP
What kicked all this off was the events of October 7, 2023.
there are direct lines to the Syrian Civil war and Invasion in Ukraine. Trump acking Solemani back in his first time also factors in greatly, but if we go into everything that kicked off Oct 7 we'll be here all day. So we're going to sort of cut off the look back there, but know the Great Jew Hunt of Oct 7 was not an isolated or monolithic event. It has its own background and story as rich and complex as this one.

DISCLAIMER
I am not very fond of the Jews, nor of their programs for goys, nor of their "only israel gets to have an ethnostate". I do not like arabs either. I know this is a shock to many controlled by foreign entities, but you can hate more than one type of retarded Dune Coons, its not one or the other.

That said, the Jews are not strapping bombs to their children so are better to deal with than inbred and retarded Arabs and prefer them over retarded pederast worshipping camel jockeys if you make me choose.

I am going to try to keep this neutral, but know going in that I view the semite turd has having one end that is DEFINITELY cleaner than the other.
So Hasan-level Arab fellators maybe stop reading and go drink some camel urine as you fuck a goat. likewise, single minded Jew spergs maybe just kill yourself and try to take some jews with you when you go. And BRICSimps, please report to Canada for mandatory MAID as you are too retarded to live.

Before Oct 7, Israel was content to let the then-current situation in the middle east stay where it was.

Syria had a low intensity civil war, Lebenon was dysfunctional, and the Palestinians were allowed to have some ineffectual chimp outs a few times a year as they postured strength. Israel would continue to demolish houses & build kibbutzes, Hamas/PLO would launch some drones and rockets. With Hezbollah busy propping up Assad in Syria, things were quiet enough and Israel was content to let them sit and slowly strangle the Arabs because everything was pretty stable and calm (for the middle east).

Then October 7 happens. A large number of civilians inside Israel are killed in fucked up ways. Israel's government is pissed, but more important for events, so is the population. They demand the government do something and give the govenrment a blank check to justify doing those things.
Israel decides to end Hamas, they can't deal with them anymore, they are too violent and retarded to be permitted to continue to exist.
Ending Hamas means ending their backers and funders, Hezbollah.
Ending Hezbollah means ending their backers, funderes, and weapons supplier the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ending the IRGC means ending the then-current Iranian government.

This leads to Israel working with Turkey to end the Civil War in Syria. Israel does other stuff like kill retarded terrorists and their human shields in Gaza, but that doesn't matter for the wider narrative. They give Turkey the green light to have the Turkish proxies in Syria win the civil war - Israel will not stop this from happening nor pressure the US to do something to stop it. Turkey in exchange lets Israel take strategic territory in the Golan heights, and gives their puppet two commands: evict Hezbolllah, and no Jew Sperging once in power. AJ obeys his Turkish masters. AJ also turns on Iran to blame them for the civil war as they evict Hezbollah. Hezbollah are gone, no cute I'm not touching you games, full eviction of them and their IRGC controllers.

Israel then assists Lebanon in cucking Hezbollah from power there. Hezbollah is still an entity, but a shadow o themselves. They used to be able to demand a certain number of Lebanese ministers be Hezbollah appointees - all their appointees are now gone from power. It is so over.

Crushinging Hezbollah not only results in the deaths of some experienced IRGC commanders, but removes funding for Iran. Iran can no longer fundraise for "Palestinian Causes" and use that money to make and send weapons, and they no longer get a cut of money for the mid east drug trade with Hezbollah & Assad were running.

Dealing with Syria & Lebanon takes until very later 2024, so its 2025 and now its time to go after Iran. In February of 2025,with Trump sworn in, Mossad assassinated the head of the IRGC and got away clean. This triggers a small spate of protests, but Trump barely even acknowledges them. But it sets things up for June. And June set the stage for latest events.

LEAD IN: WHAT IS GOING ON NOW IS ONLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENED IN JUNE
Trump helped set the stage for this back in June by Midnight Hammer/12 days war.
I know you niggers have zero attention span and no long term memory. But the US bombed Iran's nuclear sites in June and the Jews hit IRGC leadership.

Midnight hammer (which I'm using to describe this event because its cooler than 12 days war or Rising lion) so I'm going to summarize because this post is over long to simply say: Israel hits IRGC leadership, hard. US removed or at least reduces their potental for a nuclear deterrent. Hitting IRGC leadership degrades the Regime's ability to respond effectively to protests. This allows the Iranian opposition to start to grow as the IRGC secret police isn't ass effective a detecting and crushing them. Also helping this along is what we all must acknowledge is good old fashioned Jewshines in helping them get ready and coordinate. But like any good golem, this one slipped the chains a bit. No one was ready for this to happen. Certainly not now.

WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW, HOW IT RELATES, HOW ITS THE SAME AND WHY IT IS DIFFERENT
What is going on right now isn't exactly new. There have been big nation-wide protests in Iran almost every year due to how badly the government is fucking up running the country. The situation is continuing to get worse. The are running out of water and the capital of Tehran is sinking because the aquifer under it has een sucked dry. But its been doing that slowly. So every year the unrest grow.

You can't just topple Iran. They have too many people, and play too much of a part in Mideast power balance, to turn them into a fractured bunch of warring states as that war would rapidly spread to other countries. See above where I talked about the humanitarian cost.

Now for previous leaders:
There were also wide spread protests in 2009 under Obama as part of the Arab Spring and claims the election had been stolen. However, Obama didn't do anything with them because he was a muslim asset to weaken and destabilize America becasue there was no appetite for more mid-eastern wars and more importantly there was no replacement government. The leader the Iranians wanted to replace would have just been more of the same and only slightly better. To actually change the government would need enough forces to take over a country of 90 million people, and that would take the draft.
This is mostly why Obama gave Iran a very favorable deal at the end of his term. He was giving Iran a life-line to stablize itself because Iran's collapse woudl plunge the region into chaos.

Biden didn't do anything because there weren't any massive protests in Iran (also he was senile cuck not wanting to upend Obama's legacy). Trump's first term was pretty much the same.

All three of them would have had the Shah, but the Shah didn't have the massive internal support he has now.

Which brings me, at last to the cornerstone: what is different now.

What is different is key: Almost all the opposition groups are calling for the return of the Shah. They have united behind a single figure head (almost certainly due to Glowie wrangling, but still). I don't think most of the Protestors know anything about him except for one key fact:
He isn't the current leadership, and that's good enough.

So the difference, and why this might actually result in SOMETHING HAPPENING.
The Shah is there, he has support (For now at least, as an abstract figure head), and he is ready to take over and in theory makes Iran less retarded.
What is missing from full glow op is the protestors on the ground are disorganized. There is no leader or group of leaders. The protestors are a bit better than unruly mobs and very unlikely to retain support for the Shah once he stops being an abstract figurehead of resistance and becomes a real person trying rule part of a country in a civil war. And as mentioned above, the Shah has no bureaucrats to day-1 run the country for him, and no generals to lead the final push against the loyalists.

So it is yet to be seen if the Iranian people take this opportunity given them to Chad up and overthrow their retarded muslim cleric matyrs, or if they return to cucking as they die of thirst. But we should see soon.

The most likely way Something Happnes (again, IF it happens) is a Regular Iranian Army commander decides to lead an insurrecton. The regular Iranian Armed Forces don't like the IRGC. But they have also been purged and shook up so often, its not clear if they have any effective, competent leadership remaining.

Thank you for coming to my TED spergout.