Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

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Threadban @Orange President?

  • Yes

    Votes: 22 62.9%

  • No

    Votes: 6 17.1%

  • Temp (1 week)

    Votes: 3 8.6%

  • Temp (1 month)

    Votes: 4 11.4%
  • Total voters
    35
  • Poll closed .
oreganonce said:
Did you miss the whole thing about the US starting work on an entirely new class of "Battleship"? If the last year is anything to go by, Trump & the DoW are quite serious about forcing critical industries like ship building to get their shit back together.
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Right. See them maybe in 20 years.

LordOfZhbagva said:
Hasn't the "revitalization" failed? Didn't the US abandon the (C)Littoral ship after failing to make 3 of them due to lack of experienced workers, designers and engineers?
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AFAIK they were decommissioned because the aluminum hull wears out and started cracking way too fast.

oreganonce said:
If the US objective is "China doesn't get Taiwan" and the Chinese objective is "China gets Taiwan", I think the war's objectives can handily be accomplished by a MEU or two in Taiwan, a pair of CSGs, and the USAF's strike capabilities. We aren't talking about an invasion of the Chinese mainland here, so you can stop stroking it to whatever fantasy you're having about that.
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LordOfZhbagva said:
Why not?
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Taiwan is relevant on the world stage for 2 reasons:
1. It serves the US as an interference source against china. They just sent them (or just allocated?) 11b worth of weapons.
2. It is the worlds most advanced chip fab center.

Now, for china, #2 is less and less relevant, as huaweii and other companies are rapidly catching up to the bleeding edge, therefore it is less and less of a reason not to invade, even if that means all the fabs are blown up.

As for the reunification effort, I think china would rather see taiwan on the bottom of the sea than hosting US/proxy forces.

oreganonce said:
That's a whole lotta cope to claim that Chinese AD assets are going to magically shoot down enough B-2s, B-52s, B-1s and the rest of the USAF (including SEAD birds) to not suffer a catastrophic loss of their own assets. Oh, and those B-2's that hit Iran's nuclear sites were dropping gravity bombs, not firing standoff munitions like they would primarily be doing against China.

If you want to talk logistics for a protracted war, China is a net importer of food, with a piss weak blue water navy that cannot do the force projection needed to actively keep the US from blockading supplies from reaching them. Nor are they proven in any way to be able to deal with submarines striking vessels or launching strikes against land targets. The US, on the other hand has extensive experience waging wars on the opposite side of the world going back to WWII, Multiple allied nations in the theater outside of Chinese missile range, and most importantly the ability to be almost entirely self-sufficient in procuring critical war materials.
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A lot of the efficiency is speculation on the US fanbois part, based on rather "sparse" and "skewed" data. IE: Iran war. Where the iranians probably let them through, as all the sites were evacuated, hence the lukewarm and forewarned retaliation strike on the qatari base.

If we're looking at ukraine, how many missiles did they absorb already? If missile bombardment were THAT effective, the russians wouldn't have to keep sending them to keep ua infrastructure offline.

And here's a counter-thought: the B2 costs like 2B a pop, and the US has like a handful of them. How many of them can the US afford to lose before public outcry back home?
Not to mention an aircraft carrier taskforce, 5000 people living onbard, billions of $ and years to produce, gone to hypersonics. Fuck, even the houthis managed to drive them away with low-tech missiles.


As for blockading china.
Just take a look:
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Assume the US blockades all along the red line.
Do you see any non-sea routes to friendly countries that can serve as logistic suppyl routes?
 
oreganonce said:
Point out which specific posts you think are relevant to chinese force disposition and I might do it. Otherwise, I've got better things to read than a redditor's personal takes on chinese military readiness. Alternatively, post some snippets because that's a whole lotta shit that I do not feel like sifting through.
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But you have time to argue with us? Read through it and then we can take this to somewhere else.
 
Meh123 said:
2. It is the worlds most advanced chip fab center.
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china sends every sort of shit to anyone willing to pay for it.
but if it took control of taiwan, would keep all the chip production to itself har har har

it totally makes sense to me :smug:

btw. people talk about taiwan like it is a different country than china. it isnt. 95% of population is chinese and there are many chinese immigrants there.
sure. there is a large independent movement. but there are same a bit everywhere. sardinia, corse and regions of north of italy have strong independent movements, but it is easy to see what would happen if russia armed them to the teeth because muh sovereign state.
 
The worst part of the Venezuela shit is everyone thinks the US is invincible (again). Starting to feel like the early 2000’s and we know how that worked out. And the next asshole to say “we” when referring to military might needs a time out.
 
NuruMaleMasseuse said:
The worst part of the Venezuela shit is everyone thinks the US is invincible (again). Starting to feel like the early 2000’s and we know how that worked out. And the next asshole to say “we” when referring to military might needs a time out.
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It would be ironic if Call of Duty and Battlefield began depicting South Americans as the primary antagonists before developing a game inspired by the Ukraine conflict.(INB4 call of duty ghosts predicted the future.) I’m already seeing more mental gymnastics over Venezuela than even the Ukraine war. Iraqis went from hating celebrating Saddam being overthrown to hating Americans and becoming Iran ally fast. I still suspect the next wave of terrorism against the west will be coming form Ukraine.
 
Useful_Mistake said:
Russia has written a very mean letter in response to US stealing their shit
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>It is the year 2076.

>Russia is now the last country outside the control of the Imperium of Mutt.
>America has been conducting bombing runs over Russia for the past 5 years following a decade of blockading it's coasts.
>NATO forces led by RoboFehlinger Mark II have for weeks being battling at the border, trying to break past ancient defence lines built during the long forgotten era known as the Bellum Scythicum, or in the tongues of man as Neo-WW1.
>Every day since newly elected president Santiago López (she/them) declared war Russia has been getting daily ultimatums to "Surrender your resources and be balkanized, señor".
>Fresh from the cloning vats, the latest Monke Putler (bioassembled to replace the 19 ones assassinated by the CIA this week) is begged by his inner circle to retaliate, or at least to recognize the declaration of war.
>His response is swift and immediate.
>"I just had a very productive holocall with Senator Lindsey Graham's brainjar and we both reached a consensus that the current situation is not ideal. We must maintain our approach to a achieve diplomatic solution with our foreign colleagues and strive to follow the guidelines set under international law as defined prior to the surprise nuclear decapitation strike on China and subsequent dissolution of the UN..."
>"After all, perhaps if we bite our tongue and let it all slide this time they will realize we are rational actors and stop calling us a rogue dictatorship."
 
Useful_Mistake said:
Russia has written a very mean letter in response to US stealing their shit
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CaptainAutism69 said:
And they do nothing except for a mean letter. Maybe Russia will wake up one day and realise they are at war already.
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Knowing Trump he will also start stealing European oil tankers from Venezuela. He already backstabbed Japan and Taiwan with tariffs while backing off tariffs against China.
 
Betonhaus said:
Does Russia produce its own oil or does it have to import? People keep going on about the state's seizing Russian oil tankers from Venezuela and I'm confused because I thought Russia was oil independent.
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I'm too lazy to look it up, but afaik russia is an oil and petroleum exporter, so the only sense an incoming crude oil tanker makes is they buy crude to refine and sell. Venezuelan infrastructure is rather... underdeveloped, so it would make sense from their pow too.
 
VargReallyDidNothingWrong said:
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Meh123 said:
I'm too lazy to look it up, but afaik russia is an oil and petroleum exporter, so the only sense an incoming crude oil tanker makes is they buy crude to refine and sell. Venezuelan infrastructure is rather... underdeveloped, so it would make sense from their pow too.
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Ah ok. Everyone keeps going on and on as if it matters about the oil tanker seizures and if I asked anywhere else id get some deranged NAfO answer.
 
Betonhaus said:
Does Russia produce its own oil or does it have to import? People keep going on about the state's seizing Russian oil tankers from Venezuela and I'm confused because I thought Russia was oil independent.
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Russia is a major oil producer. This is why Westoids keep having meltdowns whenever China or India buys oil from them. Never mind the fact the Indians are selling that oil to Western Europe...
 
NuruMaleMasseuse said:
The worst part of the Venezuela shit is everyone thinks the US is invincible (again). Starting to feel like the early 2000’s and we know how that worked out. And the next asshole to say “we” when referring to military might needs a time out.
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25 years ago the US conquered and occupied Afghanistan, a harsh, landlocked country sandwiched between the two superpower rivals of the US. Nobody outside of Afghanistan put up any resistance to the US doing that. The US itself didn't even make a big deal out of their conquest. It was just something they did. Sure, there were press reports but taking Afghanistan wasn't something to be proud off. Because it was understood that the US just had that kind of reach.

Last week the US undertook a special military operation in Venezuela, one of the least functional states in the world, to get a local dictator to show up to his court hearing. This was made possible by Venezuela being such a shithole that all of the military took bribes. Some beaner probably made bank by taking bribes from all the three-letter-agencies at once. The rest of the world is either sending a strongly worded message of concern or approval, depending on whether people even know who Maduro is. The Venezuelan government is still deciding whether to carry on as if nothing had happened or accept American investments into their mismanaged oil industry so the next local dictator can gain popular support by nationalising these industries, again. American leaders are waving their dicks around, proclaiming that the US has 'restored deterence' in their hemisphere. Nobody even points out that the US control over its own hemisphere had to be restored.

tl;dr: The US went from unquestioned leader of the world to being happy to maintain control over Central Northern South America.
 
CaptainAutism69 said:
And they do nothing except for a mean letter. Maybe Russia will wake up one day and realise they are at war already.
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Why would they want a war. All top decision makers, politicians and oligarchs have their families living in US\UK or europe, nothing will change until they are allowed to keep their pockets filled.
 
It's pretty clear that NATO is falling apart. Without the US willing to let Euro nations profit from US power the only thing keeping European NATO somewhat functional is the fear of Russia. That fear will last a couple years after the Ukraine war comes to an end. Then a whole lot of nations will look at Russia, see her ample natural resources, her voluptous population of customers and her long, shining hair of global influence and these nations will want to get close to her. The Russian leadership knows that if their reactions remain constrained, they will look reasonable in a few years while the US has thoroughly ruined its reputation by aggressive tariff policies and possibly a takeover of European territory. We might be looking at a Diplomatic Revolution happening in the future.

If NATO truly breaks over stress caused by the Ukraine war, then Putin or his successor has the chance to achieve a diplomatic masterpiece. I am telling you guys, Germany will want to suck on Mother Russias pipe again.
 
The Great Ducktator said:
It's pretty clear that NATO is falling apart. Without the US willing to let Euro nations profit from US power the only thing keeping European NATO somewhat functional is the fear of Russia. That fear will last a couple years after the Ukraine war comes to an end.
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Might be sooner then that. Russia has captured nearly everything they wanted to annex and everything else is just a buffer zone. Eventually Russia will reach a point where they basically stop advancing but drone strike any military build ups in the rest of Ukraine. After that point it will be harder to claim that Russia plans to march to Brussels
 
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