You wouldn't be saying that if the papers showed cis females didn't meet the criteria for AGP.
Cis females being AGP does explain female behaviour that otherwise would be difficult to give explanation for.
This doesn't make any sense. I would be very surprised if you surveyed women on whether feeling sexy/desired was an important part of their sexual fantasies and they said that it wasn't. It's a point that has been made many times in this thread. And, equally I am very aware that a range of similar motifs are present in so-called autogynephilic fantasies. That survey instruments can quite reliably turn this up is exactly what I would have expected given the type of questions asked.
HRT will have a feminizing effect on the brain so significant difference isn't likely.
This is less true than you want it to be. It's not terribly clear that HRT induces particularly meaningful psychological changes in behavior beyond reducing tending to reduce sex drive. Although, this might not reduce actual sexual behavior especially for fetishistic cases due contrary expectations and similar such things. Reducing sex drive tends to result in a marked reduction in fetishism which would be "feminizing," I suppose.
Why then cannot you provide any evidence to the contrary?
Its not a rhetorical ploy, its an explanation for these fantasies. Its not required in order to justify MTF transition.
It depends what evidence, you consider admissisble here, but I'd point out that that aforementioned fetishism is very common in troons with AGP-like histories. You would know this well; it's hard to miss all the diaper-play, "chastity", period fetishism etc. Even within the more core elements of transvestic fetishism, there is the over fixation on specific clothing items; the obsession with stockings, for example, or with clothing that is not merely "sexy," think frilly dresses, maid outfits and so on. This is all very different from the woman who feels good/sexy etc. when she wears racy lingerie.
And this is just the conscious and observable stuff, my view is that at a deeper level there are in fact quite important differences in terms of what actually generates the arousal.
I also don't know why you're talking about justifications when your entire shtick is this autistic idea that literally anyone can and should troon out, just so long as they're a loser. Why invest yourself in whether it's similar or dissimilar? From your perspective it's a wash either way; you have no investment in innatist nonsense.