Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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I missed that. Where has that been reported? That would ramp up the spread ability hugely.
There are going to be some people at various installations going through that sequence with a fine tooth comb if that’s true.

It was announced during an official statement direct from the Chinese Health Commissioner/minister




I'm going to give them the benefit of a doubt and say that they probably retrieved a second or first gen variation of this virus.
I doubt they even had any actual samples to analyses at that point and all info they had was what the CCP was willing to share
 
I missed that. Where has that been reported? That would ramp up the spread ability hugely.
There are going to be some people at various installations going through that sequence with a fine tooth comb if that’s true.
NYT, NPR, BBC - everyone is running with the update that China has stated as a fact that the incubation period - which now averages 10 days! (gasp), is also concurrent with it being contagious. To anyone with an inkling of how viruses work, this is a monumental statement - as you know. You'd think these news sources would realize the gravity of such a report but none of them I've read state that there is any Health Care official in the USA that backs this claim, only that health officials have said that If this is true, then we're fucked.
 
Bullshit re the racism charge. Got a lot of people concerned about this and not comfortable at all with the way China is handling the problem.

People fail to realize that the threat of this coronavirus isn't that it is going to wipe out our species, but that it will make hospitals incapable of functioning due to the amount of patients they'll need to see on top of the flu season. That combined with an already overburdened medical supply distribution network is pretty frightening.

My fiance, who is Chinese, will readily agree the Chinese do incredibly autistic and weird shit: like eat live bats or turtle assholes or whatever. Thankfully that seems like a minority for the Chinese. Sort of like hillbillies who eat pickled pigs feet or whatever.
 
God I would like to know. I just rechecked the CDC site and ALL mentions of the incubation period are no longer there.
Sorry, I found the transcript of the teleconference (link) and the exact wording is, in regards to the confirmed case in Chicago:
. Again, she was not symptomatic when flying, and based on what we know now about this virus, our concern for transmission before symptoms developed is low.
 
interesting. It is possible that the virus has jumped bat-another vector-human. Hendra did this (to humans via horses but the original reservoir was bat iirc.) I’m not sure what kind of sequence change happened during that process. It is possible that another animal was in contact with bat droppings earlier in the year, has become infected and then transmitted from there. If that’s the case, it would strongly imply a large enough reservoir of virus in the wild and trapping and testing could identify the vector.
It is possible it’s edited. Sounds rather james bond but the high tech isnt immune from fuckups. I’ve seen them happen.
Yeah, that's why I've been trying to not make a definitive stance. It's definitely possible and if some reasonable explanation or mechanism was given I'd prob be inclined to yield to it. It's just been bothering me that the snake paper was so bunk and there doesn't seem to be any other good prediction for the intermediate host (surely someone knows what was sold at the market and could get a reasonably idea of how likely a host-switch from bat could occur?). Interested to recreate the genome browser analysis though, that made me a little more suspicious. The idea just seems so outlandish, I don't really know what to think yet.
 
I'm going to give them the benefit of a doubt and say that they probably retrieved a second or first gen variation of this virus.
And IIRC, there was a certain number of opinions 'based on past episodes'. Hopefully this might prod them a bit?
 
NYT, NPR, BBC - everyone is running with the update that China has stated as a fact that the incubation period - which now averages 10 days! (gasp), is also concurrent with it being contagious. To anyone with an inkling of how viruses work, this is a monumental statement - as you know. You'd think these news sources would realize the gravity of such a report but none of them I've read state that there is any Health Care official in the USA that backs this claim, only that health officials have said that If this is true, then we're fucked.
I'm hoping this is an overestimate from chinato keep their people shut inside. If it shows that behavior outside of china in some place that isnt overcrowded, overworked, & not funded by the CCP, I will panic (more and properly).
 
I can't believe how much that's being downplayed or simply not being mentioned at all. That long an incubation period, a "silent transmission" period... changes the game from church league hockey to NHL level.

That means we literally have no idea how many people, in how many countries are already incubating this & passing it on with no way of anyone knowing.

Yes, so far cases outside of China, (save the 1 in Vietnam), HAVE travelled directly from China but unless they all got off their planes without touching anything, stopping in a restroom or taking public transit, without stopping at a bodega for milk & bread & went straight home with no further human contact until properly protected paramedics took them straight to isolation, it's highly likely other cases are incubating from the known ones. Then there are the many weeks worth of travellers from China before that - to all parts of the world who have no idea they are incubating it or passing it on.

This insistence by both the US & Canada how residents are at low risk... low risk of what, exactly?

Of being infected? Getting ill? Getting really sick? Dying? Passing it on? As it stands, it's a meaningless statement & of no comfort whatsoever. You want people to think, to use reason? Give them facts as you know them. Ignorance & fear are what are going to cause problems & if that ignorance & fear are propagated by levels of government offering no useful information... we're in trouble.
 
The U.S. is planning to evacuate U.S. citizens from China through charter planes. I hope that if they're going through that much trouble, they need to block all incoming plane traffic from China (or at least throttle it into a single airport) for the time being.
 
The AFP has their top fact checkers on the case about misleading claims around the Wu Flu. I had a laugh at least about what's going around WeChat, Twitter, and Facebook.

Saline solution kills China coronavirus? Experts refute online rumour

Article (Archive)

Multiple posts on Weibo, Twitter and Facebook shared in January 2020 claim that a top Chinese respiratory expert has told people to rinse their mouths with salt water solution to prevent infection from a new virus outbreak. The posts were published after a new coronavirus strain was discovered in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, infecting hundreds of people. The claim is false; the expert's team said saline would not "kill" the new virus and urged people not to believe or share medically-inaccurate online rumours; the World Health Organization told AFP there was no evidence that saline solution would protect against infection from the new coronavirus.

China has sealed off millions of people near the epicentre of the virus outbreak as the death toll from the pathogen, known by its technical name 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), reached 26 on January 24, 2020. Here is an AFP report on the issue.

Shortly after China confirmed human-to-human transmission in the outbreak of the new SARS-like virus, multiple posts appeared on social media purporting to share "professional advice" from Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan.

The posts, for example here on Facebook on January 22, 2020, have a traditional Chinese caption saying: “Zhong Nanshan’s brilliant idea on preventing infection".
Zhong Nanshan is a scientist at the National Health Commission who helped expose the scale of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak that killed hundreds of people in both mainland China and Hong Kong in the early 2000s. Here is an AFP report on this issue.
The posts purport to quote Zhong Nanshan as saying: "I suggest everyone rinse his/her throat with diluted saline water before going to hospitals or other public areas, and rinse again upon returning home.

“Here’s the method: Swish a mouthful of diluted saline water in your mouth -- tilt your head back and let the salt water come into contact with your throat -- slightly open your mouth, breath slowly through your throat, and make a ‘ha’ sound. At this moment, the saline water will slowly move with your breath, spit it out after a few seconds. Repeat the above steps with a second mouthful of saline water, then repeat the whole procedure 3-5 times.

“Since virus or bacteria lurks in the pharynx after first entering through the nasal cavity, diluted saline water can kill the bacteria right away so as to prevent infection.
“During the period of SARS, I promoted the same method among students, supervising and encouraging them to follow. As a result, none of the students in our class was infected."

The posts claim that the information is a: "Suggestion from Academician Zhong Nanshan. January 21, 2020”
Below is a screenshot of the misleading post:

img1.png

A screenshot of the misleading post
The same claim was repeated in scores of posts, for example here, here and here on Facebook, here on Twitter, and also here and here on Weibo.
Similar claims linking the same prevention method to other people or hospitals were posted here, here and here on Facebook, and on Weibo here and here.
For example, the exact same instructions on how to use diluted saline to prevent infection was shared in this Facebook post, citing the Wuhan Union Hospital rather than Zhong Nanshan as the source of the information.

The caption starts with: “This is sent by Wuhan Union Hospital”; and ends with: “This method is simple, effective and easy. The key is to be consistent.”
All of the claims are false.

The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, where Zhong’s medical team is based, said the claim was medically inaccurate.
This January 22, 2020 Weibo post by the The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University contains an image of the misleading claim, which has been partly covered by two red simplified Chinese characters that read “rumour refutation”.

The post’s simplified Chinese caption translates to English as: “#RumorsRefutation Recently, a rumour circulating online claims: ‘Academician Zhong Nanshan suggests rinsing your mouth with saline water in order to prevent infection’.

"Academician Zhong’s team at our hospital hereby officially refutes the rumour: Saline helps clean the mouth and throat, and is helpful for curing pharyngitis. However, the new coronavirus invades the respiratory tract, which cannot be cleaned by mouth rinsing.

"Secondly, no present findings have suggested that saline water can kill the new coronavirus. Please don't believe or spread the rumour. Thank you.”
Below is a screenshot of the hospital's post:

img2.png

A screenshot of the hospital comment

The World Health Organization also told AFP there was no evidence to suggest rinsing with saline solution is effective in preventing infection.
In an email to AFP dated January 24, 2020, the WHO said: "We have seen no convincing evidence that rinsing one's mouth with diluted saline water will provide protection from this disease.

"While our understanding of the disease is still evolving, the best advice we can give people right now is to do things like wash their hands frequently, practice good respiratory hygiene (e.g. to cough or sneeze into a tissue or their elbow), avoid contact with sick people, and cook food thoroughly. This will help protect people from this new coronavirus but also a range of other diseases."

The coronavirus plaguing China was not created by a US government agency

Article (Archive)

Facebook posts claim that the coronavirus spreading in China was created by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2015, offering a real patent as proof. This is false; the CDC did register a patent, but in an effort to combat a different strain than the one that caused the outbreak that started in the city of Wuhan.

A Facebook post from January 21 claims that the coronavirus recently discovered in China was “lab created and patented in 2015” by the CDC, the leading US public health agency. The original post, which was shared more than 4,000 times and spread further via copycat posts, presents a CDC patent for a coronavirus genome sequence as evidence that it is trying to profit from the epidemic.

img3.png


Screenshot of a Facebook post taken on January 23, 2020

However, these posts are misleading. The original appears to be based on the assumption that there is only one coronavirus. But coronaviruses are a family of viruses that infect humans and animals that can cause pneumonia, kidney failure and even death.


img4.png


A graphic showing coronavirus symptoms (AFP Graphics)

The patent mentioned in the false post is for the genome sequence of the coronavirus that emerged in China’s Guangdong province in 2002-2003, known as the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). That virus led to a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome epidemic that affected more than 8,000 people in 30 countries, killing 900 people, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).


img5.png


Screenshot of a CDC-owned patent on Google Patents taken on January 23, 2020

“This is a patent covering the sequence of the 2003 SARS-CoV which differs by 25 percent as compared to the Wuhan CoV,” Ralph Baric, a specialist in coronaviruses at the University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health, told AFP in an email.


Chinese authorities also declared on January 5 that the viral pneumonia outbreak that began in Wuhan, officially known as the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), was not the flu-like virus SARS.


The sequence for the Wuhan virus was released in January 2020 by the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health on GenBank, an open access database for nucleotide sequences.


The respiratory disease caused by this new virus has led to the deaths of at least 26, leading China to quarantine 41 million people. The new virus has caused alarm due to its close resemblance to SARS from the 2002-2003 epidemic. However, the WHO declared on Thursday, January 23, that it was not a global health emergency.


As the agency in charge of developing and communicating about vaccines in the US, the CDC is frequently the target of disinformation, including the false claim that it had confessed to infecting 98 million Americans with cancer.
 
I can't believe how much that's being downplayed or simply not being mentioned at all. That long an incubation period, a "silent transmission" period... changes the game from church league hockey to NHL level.

That means we literally have no idea how many people, in how many countries are already incubating this & passing it on with no way of anyone knowing.

Yes, so far cases outside of China, (save the 1 in Vietnam), HAVE travelled directly from China but unless they all got off their planes without touching anything, stopping in a restroom or taking public transit, without stopping at a bodega for tard cum & bread & went straight home with no further human contact until properly protected paramedics took them straight to isolation, it's highly likely other cases are incubating from the known ones. Then there are the many weeks worth of travellers from China before that - to all parts of the world who have no idea they are incubating it or passing it on.

This insistence by both the US & Canada how residents are at low risk... low risk of what, exactly?

Of being infected? Getting ill? Getting really sick? Dying? Passing it on? As it stands, it's a meaningless statement & of no comfort whatsoever. You want people to think, to use reason? Give them facts as you know them. Ignorance & fear are what are going to cause problems & if that ignorance & fear are propagated by levels of government offering no useful information... we're in trouble.
It took five days for that dude in Everett to get sick enough to go to the hospital. Just to be a scary worst case motherfucker, it's heavily populated and has a big-ass naval base. Feeling better now?
 
The AFP has their top fact checkers on the case about misleading claims around the Wu Flu. I had a laugh at least about what's going around WeChat, Twitter, and Facebook.

Saline solution kills China coronavirus? Experts refute online rumour

Article (Archive)



The coronavirus plaguing China was not created by a US government agency

Article
Munchies and truthers annihilated :drink:
 
Hong Kong protesters firebomb proposed quarantine building amid coronavirus outbreak: reports

Fox News Article (Archive)

A group of masked protesters in Hong Kong on Sunday ignited a firebomb inside a newly built residential building the government had planned to use as a quarantine zone for those infected by the recent outbreak of the coronavirus, according to reports.

About 200 protesters had gathered in Wah Ming Road leading up to the recently built but vacant Fai Ming Estate located in Hong Kong’s Fanling District, South China Morning Post reported. Several protesters wearing black masks ran into the public housing unit and ignited a Molotov cocktail before running out of the building, Reuters reported. Clouds of black smoke were then seen coming out of the unit. Fire alarms went off. Some windows also had been smashed, according to Reuters. Videos surfaced online showing protesters in black protective masks fleeing the fiery scene.


“In the evening, rioters damaged the traffic lights at the junction of Fai Ming Road and Wah Ming Road, and set fire to the lobby of buildings by throwing petrol bombs,” Hong Kong Police said in a statement. “These destructive acts have posed a grave threat to the safety of people at [the] scene. Police warn all rioters to stop these unlawful acts. Police will take resolute enforcement actions.”

Firefighters responded to put out the blaze. The damage appeared to be contained to the building’s lobby. Hundreds of riot police also descended on the area. At least one person was arrested, Reuters reported. The Center for Health Protection later announced it suspended the plan to turn the public housing block into a quarantine zone, Hong Kong Free Press reported.

Protesters had created barricades and lined the road leading up to the building with bricks. They opposed the government's decision to use the newly built building as a quarantine zone, fearing its location near a school and the city’s main residential area posed too great of a risk for infection.

Six people in Hong Kong had been diagnosed with the Wuhan coronavirus as of Sunday. The Hong Kong government elevated its response to "emergency" level, instituting a series of school closures, flight suspensions, event cancellations and theme park closures -- including shutting down Hong Kong Disneyland.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam had signaled in a speech Saturday that the Fai Ming Estate could have been used as either a quarantine zone or a place to house medical staff fighting the outbreak, the South China Post reported.

By Sunday, Lam issued a measure banning all residents of the Chinese Hubei Province, where the outbreak originated, and anyone who visited the province within the past 14 days from entering the city. The ban did not apply to Hong Kong residents.

The outbreak, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has claimed the lives of at least 56 people – most of whom perished in mainland China. Hong Kong is trying to prevent the coronavirus from spreading from the mainland to the world financial hub, which has already been grappling with months of sometimes violent anti-government, pro-democracy demonstrations.

The novel virus has sickened nearly 2,000 people worldwide. Like the SARS virus in 2002-03, the new coronavirus is thought initially to have been transmitted from animals to people via the consumption of exotic wildlife. The third case of coronavirus in the U.S. was confirmed in Southern California on Saturday, according to the Orange County Health Care Agency's Communicable Disease Control Division. Canada, Australia and Malaysia also reported their first cases Saturday.

Video:

Edit: Now with pictures

In Pictures: Proposed Hong Kong virus quarantine building firebombed during protest

Hong Kong Free Press Article (Archive)
Article said:
Protesters threw petrol bombs on Sunday night at an empty public housing complex in Hong Kong that had been earmarked to become a temporary quarantine zone as the city battles an outbreak of the SARS-like Novel Coronavirus.
“The most effective way to stop govt using the building as quarantined quarters for #2019nCoV” in Fanling via HK01 Livestream pic.twitter.com/9Drfc7Lgd0
— Galileo Cheng (@galileocheng) January 26, 2020

Hong Kong has declared the virus that first began in central China as a public “emergency” — the city’s highest warning tier — and on Saturday announced ramped-up measures to reduce the risk of further infections.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
Among them was a plan to turn a newly built but currently empty public housing block in Fanling into a quarantine facility.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
The buildings would be used to house people who may have come into contact with carriers of the virus as they wait to get tested, as well as frontline medical staff worried about infecting their families.
The lobby of the quarantine camp was damaged badly with fire. pic.twitter.com/AYnaZ9IAYQ
— Studio Incendo (@studioincendo) January 26, 2020

The city has diagnosed six positive cases of the virus so far.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
Dozens of local residents and protesters opposed to the idea held rallies outside the complex on Sunday, with some setting up road blocks.
In the evening, police said assailants threw petrol bombs at the buildings.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
An AFP photographer on the scene saw fierce flames coming from the entrance of two apartment blocks before firefighters got the blaze under control.
Riot police were on scene and protesters had left, although some local residents were arguing with officers who used pepper spray.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kaiser/United Social Press.
The Centre for Health Protection said the plan to turn the housing estate into a quarantine zone would be suspended.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
The agency has already turned a holiday park in an isolated rural area into a working quarantine facility. Two other holiday parks located away from major housing estates are also ready to be used as similar facilities.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kaiser/United Social Press.
But officials say they have struggled to find hotels and spare rooms for doctors and nurses working on the isolation wards where patients are being treated.
january 26 virus fanling

Photo: Kero/United Social Press.
The virus outbreak comes at a time when Hong Kong is already boiling with widespread anti-government sentiment after seven months of often violent pro-democracy protests.
The government has said it "will cease the related preparation work in Fai Ming Estate" as a potential quarantine facility following protests. #hongkong #wuhanvirus #WuhanCoronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak pic.twitter.com/Oa38Z1ZjXA
— Hong Kong Free Press (@HongKongFP) January 26, 2020

The city’s pro-Beijing leader Carrie Lam boasts record-low approval ratings while the police force is loathed in many neighbourhoods.
Carrie Lam

Carrie Lam at Davos 2020. Photo: GovHK.
The frequency and ferocity of protests have died down in the last six weeks, but sporadic clashes still take place.
Police fired tear gas on Saturday night — the first day of the Lunar New Year — at small groups of masked protesters in Mongkok.
Nearly 300 people were killed by SARS in 2003, a tragedy that left a profound psychological impact on one of the most densely populated places on earth.
wuhan flu virus mask facemask

File photo: GovHK.
The city’s ability to combat the crisis was hampered by moves in mainland China to cover up and play down the outbreak, leaving a lasting legacy of distrust among many Hong Kongers.
Animosity towards China has intensified in recent years as Beijing tightens political control over the semi-autonomous territory and as mainlanders compete with locals for jobs, property and goods in the pricey city.




Carrie Lam
 
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The AFP has their top fact checkers on the case about misleading claims around the Wu Flu. I had a laugh at least about what's going around WeChat, Twitter, and Facebook.

Saline solution kills China coronavirus? Experts refute online rumour

Article (Archive)



The coronavirus plaguing China was not created by a US government agency

Article (Archive)

Just give them some Jilly Juice and they'll be fine.
 
Hong Kong protesters firebomb proposed quarantine building amid coronavirus outbreak: reports

Fox News Article (Archive)



Video:

Edit: Now with pictures

In Pictures: Proposed Hong Kong virus quarantine building firebombed during protest

Hong Kong Free Press Article (Archive)
That's just autistic now
 
Article on how civil servants are selected in CCP-land and the handle disasters.

-----

Vol. 42 No. 2 · 23 January 2020
Diary
What really happened in Yancheng?
Long Ling

The classroom filled up with a mixture of recent graduates and postgraduates, together with people who wanted to change careers or who had spent the years since graduating preparing for the exam. We sat on small hard chairs and squeezed our legs under the small desks. The people in the high-school classroom were not just my competitors; they might also be my future colleagues. No one knew which of us might be the future director of a large bureau in the ministry, or become a city mayor, and who would remain sitting at a desk in a standard-sized office year after year, or not even get that far. We all had a single goal: to become a civil servant. The proctors passed out the test and started the clock.

A job in the Chinese civil service brings a number of enviable benefits. Civil servants are highly respected. They are allocated apartments at a low price and approached by all manner of people and companies eager to please them. And, as long as they follow the rules, they can’t be dismissed from their posts. Despite the comparatively low salaries, the security and importance of the job attracts about a million applicants a year to the civil service examination.

I was applying for a junior position in the Ministry of Environmental Protection, which is ranked low among the 26 ministries and commissions of the State Council, a reflection of the government’s attitude to environmental issues. Unlike the ministries in charge of mineral assets, listed companies or banking, the Ministry of Environmental Protection has few resources and none of the powers wielded by the Ministries of Public Security or Party Discipline Inspection. Even so there were still more than two hundred applications for six junior positions.

Everyone applying for a job in the civil service sits the same written test. It has two sections: a two-hour ‘administrative occupational ability test’ followed by a three-hour writing and exposition exam. Each accounts for half the total score. The occupational ability test consists of such questions as: ‘There is a well ten metres deep. A frog sits at the bottom of the well and can leap upwards five metres. The walls are slippery and the frog falls back three metres at each leap. How many leaps does it take for the frog to jump out of the well?’

Candidates can improve their scores by practising for some questions, but others resist all preparation. ‘Please replace the question mark with the most suitable image from the four options so as to make them display a certain pattern’:


The correct answers to the ‘common sense’ section cannot be achieved just by using your common sense. It is impossible to guess the correct response. For example:

The essence of life is:
A. An organic combination of proteins, nucleic acids, sugars, lipids, water and inorganic salts
B. A form of material movement
C. Cells
D. A form of neural strength
You might be tempted by A, C or D, particularly if you think this is a question about biology. But the correct answer is B, because the question tests an understanding of the world according to Marxist philosophy. One Marxist doctrine states that the world is material and materials are moving. Life is material and it is moving, therefore life is a form of material movement.

The normative role of the law includes:
A. Guidance, evaluation, punishment, coercion, education
B. Instruction, evaluation, education, prediction, punishment
C. Guidance, education, coercion, encouragement, prediction
D. Guidance, evaluation, prediction, education, coercion
The four options look almost the same. The only way to know the correct answer, D, is to know Chinese Communist Party dogma perfectly. In fact a large portion of ‘common sense’ comes down to party dogma. Confucianism defined common sense for more than a thousand years but the party has determined it since 1949. To succeed in the civil service entrance examination, you have to memorise the answers printed in party documents, school textbooks and training materials.

In China, what is the fundamental way to solve the main social contradictions?
A. Practically strengthen the Chinese Communist Party’s leadership
B. Ensure the dominant role of the public sector in the economy
C. Take the path to reach common richness
D. Vigorously develop social productivity
Many candidates may be tempted to choose A. After all, ‘strengthen the CCP’s leadership’ is the correct answer to most questions. Some candidates may choose C, because Deng Xiaoping said ‘to be a socialist doesn’t mean you have to be poor’. Prosperity for all was the goal of the economic reforms he initiated in the 1980s. But the correct answer is D. After the party successfully completed the socialist transformation in China, the main contradiction in Chinese society was no longer class struggle, but instead the contradiction between the development of social production and the needs of the people. According to Marxist theory, social productivity is the ultimate determinant of social development, so in order to reconcile the contradiction, it is necessary to improve social productivity, and hence the material circumstances of society to meet people’s needs.

The three-hour shen lun exam was in the afternoon. ‘Shen lun’ literally means to expound, discuss and verify. Its origins can be traced back to the imperial examination of the Sui Dynasty (581-619 ad). Confucius’s opinion that ‘a good scholar who studies with relative ease can become an official’ is deeply rooted in the Chinese educated classes. In ancient imperial examinations, candidates were invited to write on political topics and to offer policy suggestions to the court. The best essays were examined by the emperor himself. This procedure is still the basis for selecting administrative officials in Chinese society. The language has changed from Classical Chinese to Mandarin, and the emperor and ministers are now party and personnel officials, but the skills required to get a high score remain the same. A candidate needs to write essays in a particular way in order to show that she can think and write like a normative civil servant.

How do you ensure you score more than your competitors in essay writing? Not by being the most elegant writer, nor the most eloquent, but by demonstrating a command of official style. Outstanding candidates write their essays in neat handwriting. They choose the most appropriate words, they quote from the classics and they express complete loyalty to the party’s Central Committee. The content of what they write is, of course, shaped from the top. It is no exaggeration to say that Xi Jinping’s reports to the Party Congress are the civil servant’s bible. Candidates must be sufficiently familiar with the congressional reports and Xi’s lectures. Key paragraphs must be memorised.

With a high score of 45 in the written exam, I defeated the majority of other applicants and went through to the second round: the interview. The shen lun exam tests whether one can write the official language; the interview tests whether one can also speak it correctly. My interview took place in a large conference room. Nine panellists sat facing me on the other side of a long crimson table. In front of each was a pile of CV folders and an identical white teacup. On my side, all the chairs had been removed except one. I had a piece of A4 paper and a bottle of water.

I was the first candidate that day. A senior official, seated in the centre, read out the rules: ‘There are five questions on the piece of paper in front of you. You have one minute to read a question before you start to answer. You have five minutes to give your answer.’ I read the first question:

In Yancheng, Jiangsu Province, at 2 a.m. on the eighth day of the lunar new year, a rumour emerged that chlorine had leaked from a chemical plant in a nearby industrial park and that the plant would soon explode. As a consequence, more than ten thousand people tried to flee, with severe disruption to local traffic. Four people died in a traffic accident. The local government responded quickly. They refuted the rumour on television and over the internet, and released statements saying that there had been no accident, no explosion nor any leakage of chlorine. At the same time the relevant departments ordered additional inspections of the safety and environmental conditions in industrial parks. They also tracked down the rumour-mongers. Residents returned to their homes the next morning and order was restored to the city. Please comment on this incident.
I remembered reading in the newspaper that something had happened at Yancheng four months ago, but there was no time for reflection. I picked out the key points of the story: ‘chemical plant’, ‘rumours’, ‘local government’s quick response’ and ‘order was restored.’ The way in which the incident was narrated made clear the way the authorities viewed it: there was no accident in the chemical industrial park; instead a malicious rumour caused the exodus. The examiners wanted to test our views on public crisis management. An essential part of the civil service exam syllabus is Mao’s three steps of materialist dialectics: find the problem, analyse the problem, solve the problem. The first step is to point out the nature of the problem and the contradiction it reveals. The second step is to analyse the contradiction and find out who, or what, is responsible. The third step involves proposing policy recommendations.

I began my answer this way: ‘This incident concerns panic in a community brought about by rumours of a leak and possible explosion at a chemical plant. The panic caused deaths, affected social stability, and must be taken seriously by the relevant departments.’ I looked at the faces opposite me. Their expressions were steady, showing no signs of surprise. I continued:

First, the spread of the rumour shows that the official information channel in Yancheng was not effective. This was partly why a rumour could spread rapidly and get out of control within a couple of hours. Second, people were so frightened that they fled the area, even though there was no evidence of a leak. This reveals people’s mistrust and fear of the chemical plant. Third, the local government’s response was fairly rapid and effective after the incident. Although ten thousand residents fled, government officials persuaded them to return home the next day. The situation was quickly brought under control, avoiding a worsening of social instability.
My analysis leads me to propose that the local government adopt the following policy. First, improve communication with the local community by holding press conferences and releasing regular reports about the state of the major industrial parks. Second, strengthen the environmental supervision of chemical industrial parks, reinforce the management and inspection of pollutants and chemical production, and punish the plants that are not in compliance with regulations. Third, establish a rapid response mechanism for emergencies in the city to ensure that there is no delay in reporting and reacting to a crisis. All departments must co-operate to prevent such incidents from happening again.
The civil service admission list was revealed the next day. I was on it.

But what really happened in Yancheng? The question has lingered in my mind in the eight years since my interview. From the perspective of the civil service, the policies I proposed were correct, otherwise I wouldn’t have been offered the job. But I don’t fully believe the official news, or the local government’s statement, just as I don’t fully believe my own answer. Was the rumour that made families flee at 2 a.m. really just a rumour? Did the government really inspect the factories and industrial parks as they claimed? Nothing about that had appeared in the media. All the reporting was identical.

I looked into the background of the Yancheng industrial park. It had a bad record: two months before the incident there had been a chlorine leak, which poisoned more than thirty people. Three years earlier an explosion had killed eight people and injured many more. A village of four hundred people stood next to the site, separated by a road. The nearest chemical plant was only 250 metres away from the houses. According to government statements after the incident, local police had detained two suspects accused of ‘fabricating and deliberately spreading false news’. The family of the people who died in the traffic accident was compensated.

Then, on 21 March last year, an explosion shook Yancheng’s industrial park. Images of giant spiralling flames and a dark grey mushroom cloud quickly spread on local news and social media. Only a few casualties were reported at first, but the number gradually increased throughout the day. Four days later, the official figure gave 78 dead and 566 wounded. A large proportion of the wounded were people who lived in the vicinity of the factory. The explosion damaged doors and windows at ten schools. At a nursery a kilometre from the explosion site and at a primary school almost three kilometres away, children were injured by broken glass as their classroom windows imploded.

The number of casualties meant the accident received national attention. Even the Central Committee and the State Council got involved. Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang gave speeches. Two days after the explosion, the State Council established the Serious Explosion Accident Investigation Team, led by the minister of the newly established Department of Emergency Management, whose mission is to guide ‘ministries in all regions responding to emergencies’. Relevant parties rushed to the scene. The official response was completely in line with the views that I had expressed during my interview. The government’s priority was to show how active and responsive it was. They spoke the official language. But what was the real number of casualties? Why were those industrial parks still running after years of poor safety?

News about the explosion soon died down. It was said that the public security bureau took measures against those who ran the industrial park. Later on, the park was closed. Whether the closure is temporary or permanent isn’t clear. In my mind I can see the hundreds of civil servants in related departments who worked hard to manage the crisis. They did it skilfully and to the appropriate standards. I think those on the front line must have sympathised with the people affected by the disaster, and considered themselves lucky not to live near hazardous industrial parks. I believe they must have done as well as I did in the civil service examination. It is unfortunate that the accident they dealt with wasn’t just a ‘rumour’.

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NB. Can't seem to download the image, sorry.
 
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