UN Venezuela Megathread - Mercenaries 2 references galore! Cubanodun is MVP

With the news of an attempted army uprising ending in many arrests happening in the troubled nation, I think now is the time to just say 'Post all Venezuela related news here'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-40843494

The civil war is upon us.

 

[TiggerNits]

The USA: We can shut down our federal government and still wreck other super powers' plans in the 3rd world with a single shit post

 

[JustStopDude]

Chavismo isn't much of an ideology but people who support Chavez because he tells people what they want to hear, that he's protecting them from American Imperialism, that the rest of the world also is being blocked by America, and so on.

I think this is slightly oversimplification. Chavez came into power because it was a vote against the corruption of the previous government. It is the same that we see in Brazil right now and one could argue President Trump election was a vote against entrenched American politics.

When global economy is going very good (basically China purchasing every fuel possible), Venezuelan sour crude could be sold for very high price (normally it is lower price because it must be processed with lighter mix to lower sulfur content). The Chavez regime in the good times was very effective at spreading the wealth which gives them a very wide base into areas of Venezuelan society normally ignore (like the rural areas).

The fuck up was when the times were good, the large social programs could be funded. When the global economy was retracted, the government refused to curtail the vast social programs for fear of losing their base of power. Instead, the government starved everything else, which was extremely short cited.

Kicking and screaming, they ignore reality, much like say Zimbabwe regime.

Watch the Chinese, they are being quiet.

China is very busy with the one road program. Already very extended for the investment in the new silk road countries. I do not suspect they will seek to economically invest in Venezuela because their biggest resource, sour crude, is not a commodity not worth the demand. On top of this, Venezuela already has history of refusing to pay its bills recently.

Militarily, like Russia, China would struggle to project that far from main territory.

Japan.

I would also include West Germany and many of the Islands in the pacific. I think Americans tend to forget just how horrific the Japanese Army units were to many of the smaller islands they occupied. Many times the entire social structure was destroyed by the time the Americans retook the island. Just look at the crazy "cargo" cult religions that formed where American military was seen like godlike saviors from above.

 

[YW 525]

China is very busy with the one road program. Already very extended for the investment in the new silk road countries. I do not suspect they will seek to economically invest in Venezuela because their biggest resource, sour crude, is not a commodity not worth the demand. On top of this, Venezuela already has history of refusing to pay its bills recently.

This is an excellent point. The silk road project must be a success for China at this point, failure is not an option. And any further conflict with the US could cause disruptions that make the trade war look like small potatoes, which will topple China's economy. The road must work so the investment can be recouped.

 

[Figuratively Stalin]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

 

[mindlessobserver]

China can't do shit, even if it wanted too. They have no means to project any force to south America, and any effort to go after US interests in Asia would backfire far worse for them then for the US. Chinese and Russian adventurism into South America depends solely upon the US permitting it to happen.

 

[JosephTX]

Iran was pretty okay under the Shah.

It helped being literally equal to Israel in US relations and actually having oil, to the point Iran was scheduled to have F16s before even NATO.

The downfall of the Shah was mainly due to the fact he was effectively a modern SJW by 1970s Iranian standards and forced westernization and liberalization down the throats of people in an especially assholish fashion like ordering the police to rip hijabs off the heads of grannies in the street, this is why hijabs are required by law in the Islamic Republic since the Shah turned the hijab into a political symbol.

 

[neverendingmidi]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

It’s South America. Assume any regime change will result in chaos, and you’ll never be wrong. I’d’ve preferred Trump to not say anything. I doubt anything will change, and since this guy doesn’t even have the cache of being Chavez’s handpicked successor, I expect him dead in a month or two. Less if Cartels from Mexico bother to take over.

 

[JosephTX]

Zulia for 51st state when?

 

[Bob's Ghost]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

Well for one thing, he was an engineer and not a fucking bus driver, so he's probably smarter than the last guy.
(Seriously, Venezula is lead by fucking Miss Crabtree. "I like capitalism alot." "WHAT DID YOU SAY?" "I said I wished there was a sequel to The Sandlot." "Oh... Me too.")

 

[Marco Fucko]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

He dislikes Communist rule due to an ineffectual response by Chavez when there was a disaster and his family was rendered temporarily homeless.

Other than that, his history has been spent navigating politics after helping to found the center-left party he is a part of, and doesn't seem to have an actual policy or performance track record.

 

[Hux]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

He's still a socialist, just that he's with the socialists that recognize that Chavez and Maduro were always full of shit. Even so, there's no way he can be as big of a fuck up as him. Hell, even if all the corporations and petro-dollar groups in the world swooped in and set Venezuela up to be another wage-slave driven banana republic like they did with Columbia, it'll still be a massive improvement to having to resort to eating zoo animals and breeding rabbits (that have zero nutritional value) for food

 

[millais]

I think some of you speculators are very overoptimistic about China's ability to turn this recent unrest to their favor. The Chinese government is most likely now in the process of writing off some tens of billion dollars of old development loans that the new government will now probably default on (at least Maduro nominally promised to pay it back) and if PDVSA gets restructured too, then that's billions more in Chinese government money gone down the toilet.

 

[GentlemanFaggot]

Here's "Boots Riley", a American rapper, producer, screenwriter, film director, and activist.

View attachment 647177

View attachment 647178

This is what Communists actually believe.

Fucking tell that to the Venezuelans who fled the country to here. Do you think wealthy people run food trucks?

Nice people by the way and arepas are fucking tasty.

 

[neverendingmidi]

Fucking tell that to the Venezuelans who fled the country to here. Do you think wealthy people run food trucks?

Nice people by the way and arepas are fucking tasty.

For Venezuela? Yes. Because they have the money to both get out of the country AND invest in a food truck. They’re coming from a country where kids fight over the rights to garbage piles. That’s insane amounts of capital in comparison.

 

[Pepito The Cat]

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro?

Simple. We don't. It's an alternative to an evil that proved to get bigger and harsher every year.

You'll see this phenomenon repeated over and over again in latin american democracies. Someone fucks up real good and for lack of an alternative, people vote either for true fascists (not pretend Tumblr fashs) or literal nobodies. Sometimes we don't even get to vote and the military just takes over.

 

[Gustav Schuchardt]

I wonder how big trump wants to go with this. If Maduro is not the recognized legitimate authority for Venezuela he can't tell the US embassy to do shit. Maduro would have to use force to evict the American mission. But doing so would almost certainly trigger a severe US reaction.

Interesting thing is that Juan Guaido has tweeted that Venezuela wants friendly diplomatic relations with all countries of the world, including the US.

https://twitter.com/jguaido/status/1088173443005251584
http://archive.is/zYPyS

Meanwhile the EU has recognized Guaido as president, in an uncharacteristically helpful tweet

https://twitter.com/EUCouncilPress/status/1088199184740683777
http://archive.is/5BU0u

"The civil rights, freedom and safety of all members of the National Assembly, including its President, @ jguaido , need to be observed and fully respected. »Full text:https: // europa.eu/!mC84Hc

Basically Maduro can attack the US embassy in which case he's going the way of Allende. Or he can tacitly accept that he's not the one deciding which countries have embassies in Venezuela.

 

[JustStopDude]

The silk road project must be a success for China at this point, failure is not an option.

China has many problems. Please do not take me to be expert in China issues. I just worked there many years as engineer. I have job where I commission ports and cranes. When global economy was very good, I was in China constantly commissioning steel mill after steel mill. Very high quality, very expensive. Central government says they want steel. They pay.

Many of the steel mills I commissioned are shutdown with some only running for a few months. The shear amount of steel capacity in China is staggering. They cannot dump onto the global market illegally enough steel to keep them open. This is a MASSIVE problem for the central government as there are huge number of steel workers that have been guaranteed jobs but they have no real work to do. On top of this, look at their housing situation. In China, it is illegal for anyone to invest in companies. On paper, you cannot purchase stock or anything like that. It is only relatively recently that the Chinese citizen can invest in anything...and the only thing is in real estate.

You know how many people are pissed about the rich owning property in Canada, Europe, and the US and they do not do anything with it? Those are not the rich of China doing it. These are the people priced out of tier I, II, and III cities. Everyone must invest in real estate because it is the only way to form nest egg for the future. So this is why you see a city with enough hosing for 200k, and maybe 60K live there. To get married in China, you must purchase a home. It is fucking bad there. Like any city with decent job opportunities is like US silicon valley.

And these housing goes up very fast and very shitty quality. It is not unusual for a high rise from the late 90's to suddenly collapse. If you spend any time in China, it is not unusual for a high rise elevator to never work. It doesn't matter if the building is a piece of shit. You hold onto it and then you flip it in a couple of years. I would see brand new blocks go up incredibly fast and within 2 years, not see anyone actually move in (though the units get sold) and everything on the units is falling down. I would joke with coworker that Soviet era housing blocks aged better than Chinese buildings.

Historically, China has face civil war whenever the standard of living of the costs gets very much above the inland areas. That is happening again. You also have a lot of government corruption, a growing pollution crisis, and severe water shortages in the next couple of decades. I don't think the Chinese government is failing any time soon, but at the same time, I don't think they have the power projection that many Americans think.

 

[KingCoelacanth]

Russia and China don't see Venezuela as a business partner, but rather an allied nation close to the US where they can have a military presence

 

[Hux]

"Democratically Elected"

 

[RodgerDodger]

I think this is slightly oversimplification. Chavez came into power because it was a vote against the corruption of the previous government. It is the same that we see in Brazil right now and one could argue President Trump election was a vote against entrenched American politics.

When global economy is going very good (basically China purchasing every fuel possible), Venezuelan sour crude could be sold for very high price (normally it is lower price because it must be processed with lighter mix to lower sulfur content). The Chavez regime in the good times was very effective at spreading the wealth which gives them a very wide base into areas of Venezuelan society normally ignore (like the rural areas).

The fuck up was when the times were good, the large social programs could be funded. When the global economy was retracted, the government refused to curtail the vast social programs for fear of losing their base of power. Instead, the government starved everything else, which was extremely short cited.

Kicking and screaming, they ignore reality, much like say Zimbabwe regime.



China is very busy with the one road program. Already very extended for the investment in the new silk road countries. I do not suspect they will seek to economically invest in Venezuela because their biggest resource, sour crude, is not a commodity not worth the demand. On top of this, Venezuela already has history of refusing to pay its bills recently.

Militarily, like Russia, China would struggle to project that far from main territory.



I would also include West Germany and many of the Islands in the pacific. I think Americans tend to forget just how horrific the Japanese Army units were to many of the smaller islands they occupied. Many times the entire social structure was destroyed by the time the Americans retook the island. Just look at the crazy "cargo" cult religions that formed where American military was seen like godlike saviors from above.

This is an excellent point. The silk road project must be a success for China at this point, failure is not an option. And any further conflict with the US could cause disruptions that make the trade war look like small potatoes, which will topple China's economy. The road must work so the investment can be recouped.

Some really good points. Venezuela was also the hardest hit when the Fracking boom arrived. When China was competing for Venezuela's output with the US and Europe, they were forced to pay top prices. But the US has no need of Venezuelan Crude. And much of Northern Europe is similarly ramping up to self reliance. Which makes China really the only buyer. Hence a buyers market. Add to that the US for the first time in any of our lifetimes is an oil exporter, And the desire for even China to deal with the madness that is Venezuela is minimal.

Further Venezuela already owes China a great deal of money which they are never going to see again. Which makes the Chinese people loathe to throw anymore into that cesspit. You are starting to see a similar sentiment crop up regarding a few African "shitholes" as well. China has neither the capacity nor the desire to meddle in South America Militarily. At best they would ship in arms. But what would be the point? They could probably get a better deal with fewer headaches from whoever follows Maduro. China is remarkably good at that. (see; Afghanistan, Rare Earth Elements). Russia may be a bigger problem there as they are not above a bit of adventurism via their Cuban friends. But even then Venezuela is not something Putin would see much point in wasting a lot of money on at this point. Better to influence what comes next then shore up the walking dead man that is Maduro. Putin may make a side deal with the Venezuelan Military to stage a coup. That's the risk there.

How do we know this nigger isn't the same shit as Maduro? In fact, do we know anything about him?

He's a South American Politician, so the assumption is they are all corrupt. But it is a matter of degree. And this one does have the technical legitimacy under the Venezuelan Constitution. Which gives Trump and the other National Leaders far more latitude in using some non-military options. For example with that broad bank of countries recognizing the new guy as in charge, they can choose to accept HIS diplomats instead of Maduro's. Certain matters of International Finance get routed through him and his shadow government instead of Maduro, etc. This assumes the new guy lasts a week without taking a bullet to the head.