- Joined
- Feb 28, 2021
I don't know that Trump is particularly listening to advisors. It doesn't help that DOGE fired all the gas and oil experts from the Bureau of Energy Resources back in July, who would have simulated impacts from this military action, and Kash Patel fired Iranian specialists back in February to punish them for investigating him. I suspect advisors would probably have recommended that Trump didn't continually insult Iran on his social media site if they were looking at the best tactical approach.Honestly, I am not sure how to read this threat. A few posibilities:
Personally, I think 1 is most likely, though i's still hard to believe. I can't imagine trump making a threat like that and not knowing exactly how Iran would respond, meaning he made the threat with the intent to follow through, unless the goal was to figure out iran's next targets upon further escalation (but again, how would they not already know that?).
- Trump is serious. The Pentagon is serious. This is par of the plans/operation. It's been simulated, as well as Iran's response, which is so far expected, and fresh hell will be rained down upon Iranian power plants (neutral on whether they'll use graphite bombs or whatever), and Gulf States will have to just deal with whatever the Iranians do, responding in kind, to the best of their abilities.
- Trump is shooting from the hip and will probably chicken out because TACO and the blowback he will receive particularly from Gulf allies. If we knock out a power plant for 24 hours and Iran responds by taking out a desalination plant for good with a handful of kamikaze drones then, well, maybe that possibility is real enough to get trump to re-think going after Iranian infrastructure.
- Utter bullshit/smokescreen/bluster designed to get a rise out of Iran and figure out how they would respond (see this, for example, where Nour News listed exactly where they would attack if Trump follows through).
With regards to TACO, I don't know that Trump could really back down from such an explicit deadline. But it looks like Israel's hedging their bets. Israel announced they'd start targeting Iranian infrastructure 6 hours ago, and as of 5 hours ago there's been multiple strikes in Tehran and blackouts. So it seems like Israel ignored the deadline and began the escalation that Iran said would result in them attacking infrastructure across the region and mining the entire Gulf, to avoid Trump backing down, because Israel can do what it wants.