Iran Crisis & the 2026 War between Iran and the United States, Gulf States, and Israel - Please focus on news and coverage, not argumentation.

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The person I was originally replying to was suggesting that Iran (before the current war) might some day launch an all out ballistic missile attack on Europe, which is a stretch, to put it mildly. Iran's focus is very much regional, as are most of its capabilities. It is concerned with Israel and the Saudis, not France or Germany.
My point is why wait? Why wait for Iran to develop ICBMs while they delay and deceive for decades under ineffectual sanctions? The opportunity to do something is here. They are in a weakened state domestically, all their allies have turned on them, their military is decrepit and ineffectual. If not now, when? Wait for them to be driven crazier by thirst, economic collapse and drought until they decide to hold strait hostage except this time they have nukes? The reason they haven't hit you yet is because they can't. Your reaction is to give them more time to work that out.
 
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the world's least surprising development.
Not really. The strikes on Turkey and the UK/France/Italy bases caused minor damage, no casualties. It was essentially a nation with its leadership decapitated lashing out under an all-out assault, not a calculated attack plan against NATO countries, and was perceived as such. Which is why the response has been fairly moderate. That said, it has been enough to encourage some European countries to contribute to the defensive operations around the Gulf, so it's not a nothingburger either.

The person I was originally replying to was suggesting that Iran (before the current war) might some day launch an all out ballistic missile attack on Europe, which is a stretch, to put it mildly. Iran's focus is very much regional, as are most of its capabilities. It is concerned with Israel and the Saudis, not France or Germany.
Fair enough, at least something I can respecfully say "agree to disagree" I don't think we'll see eye to eye on this percieved threat level Iran posed before this conflict kicked off or the value in ending it faster now that it has kicked off (in regards to Europe as well in both cases)

But If nothing else I respect that you don't seem to be the typical alarmist sperg on the matter or a deranged groyper so fair enough.
 
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You say "Russia is a concern for the EU". I am proving it is very clearly not as EU continues to buy billions in energy from Russia, conduct billions more in trade including heavy machinery for Russia's weapons plants.
Again, you are mistaking practical limitations for ulterior intentions. I've already explained to you why Europe cannot realistically just switch off the gas and also support Ukraine simultaneously, as paradoxical as that sounds. I know you follow the Ukraine War thread, so I know you are also aware that Europe has spent the past four years diverting imports to other sources, including a lot of American LNG. Also that they have sanctioned Russia heavily, and supplied arms to Ukraine, and pledged to increase defence spending and military posture against Russia. These are not things Europe would do if it did not view Russia as a threat.

I agree that European energy policy is very stupid, especially the aversion towards nuclear power. But there are reasons for this. One reason is Chernobyl, which yes was an an example of extraordinary Soviet incompetence, not the inherent danger of nuclear power. But it did not happen in Oklahoma, it happened basically in the middle of the European continent and people still remember the terror that followed. European politics is also different from US politics - most countries do not have a dominant party, they have coalitions of several parties. This makes it a lot easier for lunatics to influence government policy. The Green Party is quite strong in Germany.

The issue is not Europe being dishonest about who they are afraid of. It is having a poor hand of cards to play from, largely due to our own miscalculations.
 
Another angle on the earlier video I think.

An interception close up

 
My point is why wait? Why wait for Iran to develop ICBMs while they delay and deceive for decades under ineffectual sanctions? The opportunity to do something is here. They are in a weakened state domestically, all their allies have turned on them, their military is decrepit and ineffectual. If not now, when? Wait for them to be driven crazier by thirst, economic collapse and drought until they decide to hold strait hostage except this time they have nukes? The reason they haven't hit you yet is because they can't. Your reaction is to give them more time to work that out.
I agree with you. I think there is a real opportunity here to prevent an evil regime from getting nukes and that this is the right move. But I do not agree that Europe was in danger of being nuked by Iran, anymore than the US is really in danger of being nuked by North Korea. And naturally that will affect the calculation on whether or not Europe should go to war.

But in any case, it doesn't really matter because the US is doing the job and as they like to remind us, we are useless and they do not need our help anyway.
 
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the world's least surprising development.
There’s going to be a concerted effort to usurp Trump’s influence during 2028. The podcaster right will start leaning more and more into narratives about Trump usually propped up by leftists.

I’m pretty sure Kent sees the winds changing and wants to make a political run happen. That or he’ll become a new grifter.
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Never heard of Sweden's Foxtrot? Iran has been funding and running criminal groups located in europe for a while now taking advantage of all the invaders willing to do crime and terrorism against their host nations.
Sure, Iran is a nuisance. I've always said as much. I did not say Iran is not a threat, just that from the European perspective, it is a lower priority threat. Again I must emphasise, I am not saying deposing the Iranian regime is a bad thing. I think it is a good thing and I support the US. I'm just saying Europe does not have an overwhelming reason to get fully stuck into this.
 
There seems to be some cognitive dissonance taking place in some people's heads here. On the one hand, Europe is useless and we don't need their help. On the other, we actually do want their help but Europe is being selfish. Furthermore, people think that Europe and America have been too focused on European affairs (such as Ukraine), and this is unfair for America, so America should focus on its own interests and Europe do likewise. Which is actually a reasonable position with plenty of merit. But then when America pursues its interests (Iran) and Europe pursues its interests (Ukraine), now suddenly we need the old alliance back in action and if America goes to war with some random sand people country, Europe needs to go with them, otherwise they are "bad allies". Even though separate strategic focuses for each half of the alliance was America's idea.
There's alot of really good points in your post so I'll try to drill down on a few of them. I think you're very right about Europe having a somewhat chaotic and inconsistent reaction, and I think it ties into the US' underlying frustrations. I don't think you can look at this issue in a vacuum, and alot of these reactions are rooted in existing frustrations with our current relationship.

There is this notion that US and EU interests are aligned and it is becoming increasingly apparent that this is no longer the case. I don't think Europe is being asked to participate because we seriously need their contributions, I think they are being asked to participate as a test of their reliability as a partner. I think in many cases it is less that Europe is being selfish, and more that they take their position for granted, and don't realize what is needed to keep a healthy alliance. If Europe had little participation, but was vocally supportive of the US, strayed out of the way, let the US borrow their bases, etc. I think they could get away with a weaker military involvement. They would have a clear place as a useful ally who wasn't a superpower but wasn't obstructive. This isn't the case though, and Europe spends alot of time acting like they should be involved, without the contributions to back it up. This is exacerbated by the slow moving processes they have implemented, which makes it difficult to move in a timely fashion, which is very problematic for the US, which wants to operate fast and ensure that its place as the top world superpower is secured.

In Europe's case, I think there is an internal identity crisis that is a part of the issue too. When the US threatened to cut all trade from Spain, the EU said that we need to operate through them instead of with individual member states. However, that was a retaliatory measure against Spain's own actions. If the US isn't supposed to negotiate with individual member states, why are they able to impede US operations of their own volition. Is the EU a single entity, or is it a group of independently operating nations? That needs a clear answer, and the answer can't be a giant longwinded meeting in Brussels, because these are serious problems and action has to be swift.

The US and the EU need to sit down and have a serious discussion about what the future relationship looks like. The relationship has been too off-balance and has led to frustrations. They move at different speeds, and that doesn't work for certain types of situations. Europe, perceived as a dependent without contribution, has a tendency to countersignal the US on global issues. If they were more publicly supportive, even if they contributed less in regards to resources, there would probably be less strain on the relationship.
 

Scenes from Zuqaq al-Blat, Beirut, following Israeli strikes.



Israeli airstrikes are being carried out on Beirut's southern suburbs (Dahieh).
 
Sorry if I’m late, I posted the other day when MedMan mentioned Ralph getting arrested and I know MrRacewar1488 got a shoutout from the MES telegram dude (PBUH) during the 12-day war.
I just think it’s fucking crazy to be following Iran war stuff, 47 years in the making, and this MedMan dude who is one of the best sources for war footage had shared Kiwi Farms features that are (very generously) tangentially related to this war at all. Is he acknowledging the Farms or do regular people know about this thread?
 

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Sorry if I’m late, I posted the other day when MedMan mentioned Ralph getting arrested and I know MrRacewar1488 got a shoutout from the MES telegram dude (PBUH) during the 12-day war.
I just think it’s fucking crazy to be following Iran war stuff, 47 years in the making, and this MedMan dude who is one of the best sources for war footage had shared Kiwi Farms features that are (very generously) tangentially related to this war at all. Is he acknowledging the Farms or do regular people know about this thread?
I doubt MedMan himself is reading the Farms but I suspect one of his admins does and probably posts here, too. The screenshot of my post that MedMan shared was posted within half an hour of me making it so someone close to the channel is a member.
 
Is the EU a single entity, or is it a group of independently operating nations? That needs a clear answer, and the answer can't be a giant longwinded meeting in Brussels, because these are serious problems and action has to be swift.

The answer is that it's both. The EU is a single entity, but its a single entity that contains sovereign states as members, as oppose to the federal states of the US. Each member state can choose whether to cooperate militarily with the USA, or any other country - defence isn't (yet) under the purview of the EU.

When it comes to trade the EU operates as a bloc - that's why the EU is relevant when another country threatens trade with one member state. EU member states retain sovereignty despite this because each member state has chosen to trade as a bloc, and has the ability to pull out of that arrangement at any time a la Brexit.

This isn't an "identity crisis", it's what the EU is.
 
they got Israel and the USA to pay and die for it.
Oh come on you didn't even try. A "mexico will pay for it" reference? In 2026?

What's next, did Trump take two scoops of Israeli money to get involved in this operation?
 
There’s going to be a concerted effort to usurp Trump’s influence during 2028. The podcaster right will start leaning more and more into narratives about Trump usually propped up by leftists.

I’m pretty sure Kent sees the winds changing and wants to make a political run happen. That or he’ll become a new grifter.
It's easier to criticise than to defend. The Podcaster caste learned this the hard way and is not turning. Not much of a surprise.

In Europe's case, I think there is an internal identity crisis that is a part of the issue too. When the US threatened to cut all trade from Spain, the EU said that we need to operate through them instead of with individual member states. However, that was a retaliatory measure against Spain's own actions. If the US isn't supposed to negotiate with individual member states, why are they able to impede US operations of their own volition. Is the EU a single entity, or is it a group of independently operating nations? That needs a clear answer, and the answer can't be a giant longwinded meeting in Brussels, because these are serious problems and action has to be swift.
Trade is an EU issue. It's a trading bloc after all. Defense and such matters are mostly in the hands of the corresponding country and the EU has little to say on the matter. Tariffs against Spain would be kinda usless since most of the goods would then just be send to Portugal and shipped from there. Or to France and then from there since there are no tariffs between the countries of the bloc.

Kinda simliar on how there are issues that are only a topic on the federal level. While other topics are left in the sole discretion of the state level.
 
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