You guys over on the other thread were thrilled to post the oil price Monday and Tuesday after they were able to pull it off the ledge at $125. Not so much now though when it's back over $100.
We weren't saying this to imply the price increase was over but to point out a simple truth:
It fluctuates because things are uncertain.
Doomers were trying to imply that because the price went to $100 that "that's how high it will permanently be without iran's cooperation" which fundamentally ignores how short term pricing works in a world of greedy investmentfags.
The $100 per barrel price isn't because people think the straight will be shut down forever but because nobody knows if it will be one week or a few months. Pricing spergouts don't happen when people are
certain things will be good or
certain things will be bad, they happen when nobody knows what will happen one way or the other. That up and down causes a gambler's environment: when the price dips faggots who think it might go back up buy a bunch hoping to sell it which causes it to go back up, then the selloff happens, repeat.
If evidence were to come out tomorrow that said "the worst case scenario has been realized and this war will last several years" it would likely cause the price of oil to go down, probably to around $80 a barrel, then even lower of the next few months. Not because that news is good for oil supplies, but because the certainty makes investment fags stop trying to scrape money out of it.
Neither Iran, nor the straight, is important enough to have that kind of permanent impact on oil prices. Only about 20% of the worlds oil goes through hormuz and the straight closing doesn't mean that 20% disappears, it just needs to be rerouted. More expensive but not a complete removal of the resource.
If the alladin genie were to appear out of the ayatollahs anus and make the straight literally disappear with a trillion tons of sand, once markets adjusted to the change (oil rerouting, investmentfags fucking off, etc) oil would probably be increased by about 10% at the most.
More importantly though this ignores the bigger picture: Fucking Iran is worth it for
exactly this reason. The middle east is known for oil not because it has all of it because oil is all that the middle east has. Enormous amounts of oil reserves in the americas and elsewhere have been untouched because we've essentially let shitholes like Iran fill the role of oil producers as a form of charity to stop them from spazzing out. It was way too nice of us to do this, and we've decided that that time is fucking over. If they want to cut the world off from oil the americas will produce more to make up for it and this sandy shitholes will lose the one piece of leverage we (foolishly) allowed them to have over the world.
