Again, following post-COVID spikes in crime, there has been
significant crime reductions as the economy stabilized along with a multitude of other factors (
Archive). By 2023, (under Biden) crime was on a steady downward trend as society began to recover.
However, with Trump's fuckery of the economy, government and negative economic outlooks, researchers predict crime to possibly
increase in 2026 since Americans may get desperate due to economic strain resulting from his policy. In addition, areas that continue to have significantly higher amounts of crime are more likely to have high poverty, unemployment and other social issues that will continue to go unaddressed due to the affordability crisis.
Furthermore, the Justice Department has cut many grants used to fund alternative sentencing programs, community-oriented policing programs, school violence prevention, rural police training, victim services and other programs designed to improve community safety, reduce re-offending, target gun violence and improve policing effectiveness.
You can read more about these cuts and the affected programs
here (
Archive).
Here's an exploration into how poverty and economic strain result in increased violent crime:
Here's a look into a high-crime area that continues to experience crime due to poverty and economic strain, Baton Rouge, Louisiana (
Archive).
Baton Rouge's first real big spike was following Hurricane Katrina which destroyed homes and forced people to relocate and led to school dropouts and students would be displaced. Others would lose their jobs, all of which would lead to a 30% murder increase the following year. After a few years, the rate would decline to pre-hurricane levels as the community stabilized again, only for a similar cycle to occur following flooding in 2016.
Other data in the same article shows how people living in areas with concentrated poverty are linked to increased homicide.
Due to other hazards such as pollution, and reduced job opportunities, a cycle of violence and crime forms as there is little room for economic advancement or educational attainment, all of which can increase likihood of future violent activity.
There are a number of reasons why violence is concentrated in the same places as poverty. People who grow up in neighborhoods with high rates of poverty have fewer opportunities, weaker professional networks, and earn less income than those in other areas. Children in these communities are more frequently exposed to hazards, such as lead paint and air pollution, which are linked to violent behavior later in life. Low-income neighborhoods also have larger numbers of abandoned businesses and empty lots.
Here's a graph using UCR data for Part I (violent crimes) (
Archive) which can help visualize the crime trends showing the COVID spike and subsequent steady decrease.
The TL;DR: Trump has not had a significant impact in reduction as the rate has steadily fallen.
On a slightly unrelated note,
here is a list of executive orders and policies (
Archive) that continue to undermine the justice system and will fuel the mass-incarceration crisis that may increase crime while also targeting gun violence reduction programs, community-based corrections, diversion and drug treatment programs, for example.
