At the same time I do see a trend where Linux is pulling an AMD and doesn't miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. People are pissed at Windows, and yet Linux doesn't try to make itself better, but rather hopes that it'll get traction just because the other option gets worse.
Oh, Linux has been languishing like this for many years. I'd forgive it in the early days because it wasn't meant to be for ordinary users. But post-Ubuntu multiple distros have been trying to be the friendly to non-technical people distro and they're still not there. However...
There's a rising tide, there's a tipping point at which pulling off the friendly distro goes from horrible to 'we can do this'. You go on to list issues like the X11 vs Wayland feud, Nvidia drivers, etc. There are always going to be messy areas. But every year there's an increasing amount of 'working stuff' to draw from. More and more hardware support, more polished DEs. I know on my Debian period earlier in the year it kept popping up messages about Wayland configuration issues which would have been impenetrable to common users but... once I'd fixed that, the system was close to user friendly. Installation was ugly because it didn't recognize my network chips so yes, off I go to download them on another machine, stick them on a USB and put that in as part of my install process but in the scenario where some OEM is bundling Linux with the hardware configuration and installation issues go away. And that's really what is needed. Less of this "Oh, go here, download {distro X}", and some big vendor selling Linux with the hardware. There have been attempts before. Anyone remember, oh what did they call them, "netbooks"? Those ultra low-power mini-laptops. One of the big vendors sold those with Linux on them. It was... okay. Certainly the issue was more the low-power of the hardware more so than Linux. The city of... Munich? tried to switch to Linux over Windows. It was likely as much a gambit to get MS to lower prices as it was to actually use Linux but even back then some significant players were willing to try it. It failed but twenty+ years later, how much more likely to succeed would that attempt be? A lot.
One day there's going to be a critical mass of working Linux crap that the long prophesied "User Friendly Linux" will appear and if you can fucking turn off telemetry many will switch. They'll follow the technical people who will finally be able to tell their parents and friends "use this, it'll just work" without lying.
It may come from abroad. Windows is subject to American hegemony and Russia has its Red Star Linux or whatever it's called. Or maybe that's China. Astra Linux is the Russian one? The USA is currently doing its best to get the rest of the world to switch away from Windows with sanctions and general use of US tech as a weapon.
I mean, much of this is what you said, that "unless you get a company that gives a shit about making a good product and unfucking Linux..." But I think that unless will happen. Is happening.
I'd honestly be pretty happy about it if I saw Linux eating MacOS shares but it only seems to eat into Windows. The greatest enemy of Windows has never been MacOS or Linux. The greatest threat to Windows has always been Microsoft. They're fucking up over and over and throwing away what is, imo, a very good operating system. Stop shoving fucking web searches down my throat, let me be sure telemetry is fully disabled in a way I can actually feel confident in, I'd be happy as fuck.
Windows 11 is... fine, if you know how to wrangle a couple of settings. But that's not always possible, imagine how many enterprise machines are out in the world with users that doesn't even know how to turn off fucking widgets. They have to live like that, so in that way Win11 sucks ass. Plus, why is it showing (on startup) web search results way faster than actual settings or installed applications? Maybe I want to change display settings, press the start button and type it in, hit enter and I Bing up a pajeet guide on MSDN on how to find Display Settings(press the start button and type display settings). That is insane to me, a real step backwards. How can Windows search be so bad?
I have seen Start menu literally just sit there with a spinning circle and I'm 90% confident that the reason was because there wasn't a network connection at the time. It. Is. Fucked.
I really need to look into alternate tools at this point - a different file explorer, a different start menu. It sucks but there it is.
because it seems that somewhere in the 2010's everyone collectively forgot how to write good software.
They didn't forget, so much as software development became less driven by engineers and more driven by managers. Why are Windows apps now apparently ReactOS? Why is every second application you're pushed to install a fucking Electron app? Because people forgot how to code natively? Not exactly. Managers wanted engineers to be replaceable cogs. They want to be able to onboard some web-dev and throw him or her into the dev team, show them the sprint board and say "work on this ticket". And if everything is a fucking web app, they can. And you can standardise your devops pipeline, you can reduce testing. They haven't forgotten, they've made it less of a priority over replaceability and fast Agile-driven code development. The huge leaps we've made in hardware power have been a huge boon. Not to users who find programs the same speed or even slower. No, it's been a boost to managers who find that it enables coding practices that are less dependent on some dude who has been there fifteen years and dreams in C.