The U.S. Capitol, under heavy security, ahead of President Joe Biden's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2021. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)
The Biden administration is on heightened alert for foreign attempts to threaten or destabilize the United States during the presidential transition period, as officials seek to ensure that efforts to exploit a vulnerable interval — made more perilous by America’s hyperpolarized politics — are unable to succeed.
Officials said preparations at the Pentagon are focused on potential post-election threats from nations including Iran, North Korea, Russia and China, along with extremist groups. Intelligence and law enforcement officials meanwhile are girding for continued efforts by the Kremlin — already
blamed for significant influence and misinformation operations in the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote — and other adversaries to stoke discord and undermine confidence in the outcome.
A senior defense official who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the government’s plans, said the Pentagon is preparing for “a range of scenarios” that could occur between Election Day and the next president’s inauguration Jan. 20.
“We’re thinking about who might try to take advantage of this period of time, checking signals with allies and partners in the different regions, checking where we have playbooks or break-glass books for different contingencies,” the official said.
Leaders in Russia, China and Iran have all
denied interfering in America’s electoral process.
The Biden administration has warned for months that foreign actors see an opportunity in the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump. The
neck-and-neck contest is unfolding amid heightened partisan tensions and significant voter mistrust fueled by Trump’s unfounded claims of widespread fraud and his refusal to accept the outcome should he lose again.
According to a U.S. military official, the upcoming transition period is viewed as especially risky because it occurs against an unstable global backdrop, as the United States supports Israel and Ukraine in major wars, seeks to confront China’s military buildup and attempts to manage destabilizing actions by rogue states such as North Korea and Iran.
As the race has intensified, intelligence officials have taken unusual steps to highlight foreign influence efforts, briefing reporters and declassifying information about ongoing threats.
Much of the focus has been on disinformation attempts, such as faked videos that intelligence officials say
Russia manufactured to boost a narrative about illicit voting activity championed by Trump and his allies. Chinese government hackers, meanwhile, are blamed for
attempting to hack the Harris and Trump campaigns’ phones.
Supporters cheer former president Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Uniondale, New York, in September. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)
But intelligence officials are increasingly stressing that foreign efforts to undermine America’s democracy won’t end on Election Day.
A senior official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, speaking to reporters earlier this month, said America’s adversaries were likely anticipating a contested presidential vote in addition to razor-thin margins in races to control the Senate and House of Representatives.
“In such a contested post-election atmosphere, foreign actors probably will use tactics similar to those that they are using today to undermine trust in the integrity of the election and election processes, as well as to further exacerbate divisions among Americans now turning to foreign efforts to target congressional and other races,” the official said.
That could include the amplification of domestic disinformation about election integrity or the manufacturing by foreign adversaries of their own allegations. They might also try “perception hacking,” officials said, claiming they’ve sabotaged the vote to undermine public confidence.
While election officials throughout the United States say the country’s vote-casting systems are generally secure, they believe certain adversaries may seek to generate confusion and mistrust around key post-election milestones, including the tabulation and unofficial reporting period and the Jan. 6 convening of Congress to count and certify electoral college votes. It was on that date in 2021 when Trump’s supporters violently breached the U.S. Capitol in a failed attempt to halt President Joe Biden’s assumption of power.
A
recently declassified assessment from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) states that Russia and China are most likely to “consider tactics that could foment or contribute to violence, and may threaten, or may amplify threats of physical violence in the post-Election Day time frame.”
In its analysis, the NIC said that Iran, China and Russia “have the technical capability to access some U.S. election-related networks and systems.” But the council concluded that those countries would likely refrain from attempts to alter the vote count because they would probably be detected and would almost certainly result in retaliation.
Retired Gen. Paul Nakasone, former director of the National Security Agency and head of U.S. Cyber Command, said Russia has developed expertise in destabilizing information operations, for example creating and circulating memes intended to raise doubt about election legitimacy.
“They’re really good at what they do,” Nakasone said. “They understand the issues that are divisive in the United States. They understand the language. They understand all this much better than the Iranians, Chinese, North Koreans.”
But “it’s not a given” that they will pull off a successful influence operation or disruption, Nakasone cautioned. “I just don’t think that to date they’ve had much impact.”
Vice President Kamala Harris exits Air Force Two ahead of a campaign rally in Waterford Township, Michigan, on Oct. 18. (Sarah Rice for The Washington Post)
America’s chief adversaries are believed to have different preferred outcomes in the Trump-Harris showdown.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, for one, could stand to benefit from a Trump victory. While Putin has said he backs Harris, the vice president would be likely to continue Biden’s policy of strong military support for Ukraine in its war against Kremlin forces. Trump meanwhile
has said he would end the war within days of returning to office, potentially on terms unfavorable to Kyiv. He has also
voiced skepticism about U.S. commitments to NATO, the military alliance that Putin has depicted as a threat to his nation’s security.
Iranian leaders meanwhile may want to avoid a second presidency for Trump, who heralded a “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran and would be expected to support hard-line tactics by Israel in confronting Iran’s proxies across the Middle East. U.S. officials have said, too, that Iran is intent on
exacting revenge against the former president for the targeted killing of a celebrated Iranian general in 2020.
But officials say Russia, China and Iran are united in their goal of stoking discord and undermining America’s democratic system.
So far, the Pentagon says it has seen foreign conduct online meant to “stir the pot” rather than specific threats of attacks on American interests or personnel around the globe, but they have not ruled out any scenarios.
A contested or delayed result could also heighten vulnerabilities by slowing the process of nominating and confirming the next president’s key national security leaders.
According to the
Center for Presidential Transition, Trump filled just 29 percent of his top 30 national security positions by the time he took office in 2017; Biden filled 35 percent. Delays in getting those officials in place could represent an additional obstacle should any major security challenges occur early in the new president’s term. The 9/11 attacks, for example, followed a disputed election and occurred less than a year into George W. Bush’s presidency.
Kari Bingen, who served as a top intelligence official at the Pentagon during the Trump administration, said Americans should be reassured by the prevalence of career national security experts and personnel who remain in the government from administration to administration.
“That helps greatly from a continuity perspective and a threat indication and warning perspective, and then obviously in being postured to respond to a variety of different threat streams and contingencies,” said Bingen, now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“What I worry about is a contested run-out election because it would give foreign adversaries further opportunity to erode trust in the election process, trust in institutions and perhaps a chance to further try to generate doubt about the incoming administration,” she added.