US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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Sneed's Feed n Seed said:
If this was already posted, apologies; I looked but can't find it.

Wouldn't it be funny if Biden fucking died and that's the November surprise?
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I am losing money if he serves all 4 years.
nelly98 said:
I'm not sure which states have statistics like these but after doing Nevada I decided I would try to check for all of the swing states at least. I'm googling "<state> early voting statistics 2024" and it usually gets you to the site for registrations or early voting statistics, feel free to check a state out and post the results here.

Pennsylvania does not seem to have them, only registrations.
Edit: Georgia also does not seem to have statistics that break out by political affiliation.
Edit: Same for Wisconsin.
Edit: Same for Arizona.
Edit: Same with Michigan, so that's it for swing states.

North Carolina does have them.
NC Absentee Stats for 2024 General: https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/2024 General/NC Absentee Stats for 2024 General/

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Very interesting that Republicans are already ahead in the early voting and have higher turnout. I have a feeling(hope?) that a lot of the Unaffiliated will lean towards Trump.
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I've said it before and I'll say it again: trump swayed 9 million dems over in 2016 and something like 11 in 2020. Imagine the numbers with like 2%+ of registered dems also voting for Trump.

The more skeptical dems could be feeling comfortable with another 4 years of orange man compared to this, and many of the progressive won't show up.

Trump voters will surpass 2020 numbers, Harris will go down from what Biden posted with the most easy election of all time, the covid mail vote.

Short of a here to unheard of dem campaign of signing up new voters as republicans to then vote democrat as a "fuck you" to give power back to the uniparty, I dont see how these numbers add up to anything but a Trump victory....

Barring cheating of course....
 
nelly98 said:
Whitepill time? Whitepill time.
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As an update to this, the final tally is out. I thought it wouldn't be released till tomorrow but a refresh shows it was available at 9PM PST.

I didn't understand how to interpret the data very well but after doing some research for the past few hours I think I understand better. I was definitely too generous by saying Reps were "annihilating" the Dems. Regardless, the data in 2024 vs 2020 is very telling.

2024 final early tally:
1730526055640.png

2020:
1730526597079.png

Main takeaways:
  • Dems down 0.95%*
  • Reps up 2.5%*
  • Other (i.e. Independents/Unaffiliated) Up 4.19%**
  • Net +3.5% Reps, +4.2% Other

Here are the stats for 2020:
1730527203163.png

Democrats won by 2.5%. If we assume the +4.2% to Other is evenly distributed then the +3.5% increase to Republicans minus the 2.5% win from previous election would leave Republicans with a +1% lead. Current RCP average polling shows Trump +1.5 in Nevada but that's with Susquehanna (+6) and Atlas Intel (+4) weighing things a bit further out, IMO. So essentially, looking at early voting statistics we essentially arrive nearly exactly what what RCP polling says. Note that I had no intention of arriving here and only compared afterwards. I don't believe my simplistic equation of comparing the early voting results and subtracting from the previous elections results is a good way of doing things. Regardless, it's very interesting that they essentially match up.

I've been spending hours researching various states and it seems like Nevada has the best publicly available stats broken down this way. I've actually been searching for negative stats for Republicans to try to be balanced and honestly I cannot find them. I've linked all of the sites I've used, including one that acts as an aggregator from a University. I would be interested if someone can find something to the contrary. I think that may be difficult just due to the lack of data availability as most states don't allow them to be published until post-election, which obviously skews things. That said, if you look at the ethnic demographics, Nevada has a shrinking non-hispanic White population and is now skewing for Republicans.

1730527991243.png

* In 2024 they round to one decimal, previously in 2020 they rounded to 2 decimals.
** In 2020 the total adds up to 94.17% for some reason, in 2024 it's 99%, no idea why. This is why "Other" had the +4.2% addition to bring the total to 99.99% for 2024.
 
nelly98 said:
Main takeaways:
  • Dems down 0.95%*
  • Reps up 2.5%*
  • Other (i.e. Independents/Unaffiliated) Up 4.19%**
  • Net +3.5% Reps, +4.2% Other
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3%
3%
3%

Also I wonder if null needs to spool up more server capacity for next week or will we just have to live with troons seethddosing
 
nelly98 said:
Whitepill time? Whitepill time.

Nevada 2024 Turnout Reporting

Week 1 summary: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/14936/638654848155470000
Week 2 summary: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/15103/638660054924370000 (Minus today, the full early voting summary should be available tomorrow at 10AM)

Week 1:
View attachment 6589267

Week 2:
View attachment 6589268

Reps absolutely annihilating Dems in every single county. If this translates over to the Presidential Election then it will be insane.
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Nevada Libs agree
1730529382962.png
 
Nihil Jung said:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: trump swayed 9 million dems over in 2016 and something like 11 in 2020. Imagine the numbers with like 2%+ of registered dems also voting for Trump.

The more skeptical dems could be feeling comfortable with another 4 years of orange man compared to this, and many of the progressive won't show up.

Trump voters will surpass 2020 numbers, Harris will go down from what Biden posted with the most easy election of all time, the covid mail vote.

Short of a here to unheard of dem campaign of signing up new voters as republicans to then vote democrat as a "fuck you" to give power back to the uniparty, I dont see how these numbers add up to anything but a Trump victory....

Barring cheating of course....
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Hopefully I don't end up doubleposting, but I do want to dial it down with my comments on Nevada. I think my lack of experience in dealing with this data skewed my views. My initial thought that Republicans being nearly 20% over Democrats in early voting was "annihilating" them, is obviously wrong, due to the way Other (Independents/Unaffiliated) vote. With that qualification and with my updated post, I still find the Nevada stats insane. Minus 10% white non-hispanic population but trending upwards for Republicans would not have been a consideration 10 years ago, IMO.

Edit: slight adjustments but nothing that changes the substance of what I posted
 
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Betonhaus said:
3%
3%
3%

Also I wonder if null needs to spool up more server capacity for next week or will we just have to live with troons seethddosing
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At this point I'm fully expecting the site to go down a lot during election night. Just the natural, unusually high traffic will stress the servers enough. The trannies won't even have to do much to push it over the line and fuck things up.
Sad.
 
Dr J said:
Those could easily be R leaning Independents
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I don't disagree, but I don't know how to determine how they vote via the statistics we have available for early voting. I'm new to analyzing this data but from what I can tell "early voting" and "mail in votes" have very few datapoints. This makes it extremely difficult to extrapolate or interpret things. I don't necessarily subscribe to the voter fraud theories, but with this type of transformation of voting it essentially invalidates all previous methodologies of determining if there is fraud going on, IMO. This was my initial view and it was validated by the "All in" podcast too I believe. I'll see if I can find a clip or timestamp to post later.

Edit: here's the "all in" podcast I was talking about, timestamped (1:10:54): https://youtu.be/e_2E8Of78Vs?t=4254
 
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