<2022-03-04T23:27:12.000Z> cHadrian: hey where'd that chart go give it back
<2022-03-04T23:27:37.000Z> cHadrian: I was solving that :
<2022-03-04T23:27:53.000Z> Type_Other: Was supposed to be a poll but my posts are bugged.  Gonna try and repost from a different browser and see if the options work, lol.
<2022-03-04T23:29:36.000Z> Type_Other attached file https://i.poastcdn.org/d0b5ef7e78e86ad8edfc65ad8d6e8d0568c26dab423c70b39d83da038ea00127.png
<2022-03-04T23:29:50.000Z> cHadrian: <3 thanks
<2022-03-04T23:37:21.000Z> Type_Other: Yeah, different browser worked.  Weird bug.
<2022-03-04T23:39:10.000Z> cHadrian: are the opponents random or intelligent?
<2022-03-04T23:39:59.000Z> cHadrian: in other words, suppose I find an optimal combination.  Do I assume all my opponents will pick that one?
<2022-03-04T23:41:13.000Z> Type_Other: Intelligent, which is the bulk of the problem, lol.  If your opponent also knows the combo that wins against most combos, then the meta becomes to use a combo that beats that one.
<2022-03-04T23:41:56.000Z> cHadrian: Am I going to be playing against real players or is this hypothetical?
<2022-03-04T23:42:19.000Z> Type_Other: It's just a hypothetical.  There's no always-best option, but if everybody's intelligent they make a mixed-strategy equilibrium and pick randomly from that distribution.
<2022-03-04T23:42:35.000Z> cHadrian: yeah I agree
<2022-03-04T23:51:14.000Z> cHadrian: blue weapon best on avg.  yellow armor best on avg
<2022-03-04T23:54:05.000Z> cHadrian: counter-meta choice: green armor; yellow weapon
<2022-03-04T23:54:51.000Z> cHadrian: But I'm gonna assume the other players are normal people, not spergs, so I'm gonna pick meta
<2022-03-04T23:56:57.000Z> Type_Other: If your opponent's playing randomly, blue/yellow isn't the best weirdly.  Dunno if I can send pics over chat though.
<2022-03-04T23:58:03.000Z> Type_Other: Blue/green wins more combinations than others, though if everyone knows that people will counter-pick. https://i.poastcdn.org/2bb11a297e37a055cde2cdb166fa04f242d5c2dc9e0d5df32a85dbfa37924d57.png
<2022-03-04T23:58:52.000Z> cHadrian: ohhhh
<2022-03-04T23:58:56.000Z> cHadrian: I see what I did wrong
<2022-03-04T23:59:16.000Z> cHadrian: I didn't consider the individual matches, I considered simply minimized damages across all matchups
<2022-03-05T00:00:03.000Z> cHadrian: I had blue weapon doing 6268 dps avg and yellow armor receiving 6075dps on avg
<2022-03-05T00:00:05.000Z> Type_Other: Yeah, having 16 combinations makes the math really tedious if you want an actual mixed-strategy solution.  I'll try and solve for it someday.
<2022-03-05T00:01:00.000Z> cHadrian: my knee-jerk intuition was blue/blue
<2022-03-05T00:02:09.000Z> cHadrian: alright well, ya got me.  congrats you got me
<2022-03-05T00:05:54.000Z> Type_Other: lol, I still haven't done the real probabilistic solution.  You figure out a distribution of combinations that makes your opponent indifferent in their choices, then randomly select from that.  It requires calculus to get.
<2022-03-05T00:06:54.000Z> cHadrian: if all participants selected indifferently then you'd get the same answer wouldn't you?
<2022-03-05T00:07:13.000Z> cHadrian: i think the more interesting question is - when this poll finishes, who beats the ACTUAL chosen competition 
<2022-03-05T00:07:38.000Z> cHadrian: I know I btfo green/green hard
<2022-03-05T00:07:40.000Z> Type_Other: lel, yeah it's up for a week so we'll see.
<2022-03-05T00:09:48.000Z> Type_Other: By making a probabilistic mixed strategy (e.g. I have a 40% chance of doing X combo, a 25% chance of doing Y combo, etc.) and picking randomly you put your opponent into a position where their strategy doesn't matter.  They're indifferent between them because there's no better choice.
<2022-03-05T00:10:15.000Z> Type_Other: So eventually everyone figures out the winning mixed strategy and uses that.
<2022-03-05T00:11:38.000Z> cHadrian: oh yeah i've seen that happening in games
<2022-03-05T01:03:02.000Z> cHadrian: if you end up doing those other calculations pls share 
<2022-03-05T01:03:20.000Z> cHadrian: I'm familiar with calculus so i'm not gonna get lost
<2022-03-07T19:37:26.000Z> Type_Other: Apparently, totally rational actors would randomly pick between one of the five highlighted combos:
<2022-03-07T19:38:25.000Z> Type_Other attached file https://i.poastcdn.org/b8b9456a1d1de929320d6f7d97d36dfcccf7ca5790ded1434dfc7184b5cd93c1.png
<2022-03-07T19:42:47.000Z> Type_Other: But poast isn't totally rational and goes hard on green/green, so if somebody knew that they'd use any of the 6 that beat it.
<2022-03-07T19:46:34.000Z> cHadrian: Well I at least beat that first hurdle lol
<2022-03-07T19:46:47.000Z> cHadrian: Where are you seeing this? studying game theory or something?
<2022-03-07T19:49:03.000Z> Type_Other: Yeah, situations where mixed strategies beat pure strategies.  Book examples are always really tiny 2x2 ones but those aren't particularly useful so I wanted to see what people would do with more options.
<2022-03-07T19:50:40.000Z> cHadrian: yeah people like attack speed and evasion
<2022-03-07T19:50:58.000Z> cHadrian: I think people are also frequently bad at calculating crit
<2022-03-07T19:52:21.000Z> cHadrian: matter of fact, there are businesses that have made insane amounts of money by exploiting people being bad at making certain calculations/estimations
<2022-03-07T19:54:42.000Z> Type_Other: Yeah, the book "Predictably Irrational" gets into it.  Haven't read it yet but the author's an economist I've heard a few lectures from.